Member Info for Jatw

It needed more cash, board delayed while shorts crashed an illiquid share…..board may not have raised enough cash….the story continues….
Can they get enough commercial sales to generate free operating cash flow? If they can all will be well eventually. If not another funding round will be needed.

Leakage of the black empowerment transaction likely to have given rise to the fall a few days ago.
Not necessarily a bad thing to engage with in South Africa….but not something to continue with in the interest of other shareholders.

Diversification has its benefits Davey and we look forward to having a diverse set of view points here.
I have been looking at the EMA MAA timetable which includes a number of phases and clock stops….it would be helpful if the company could say where it is in the process……I could not see anything about factory inspections, so maybe the MAA will follow a normal timetable….I am not holding my breath for the PDUFA date being met as Shanghai seems to be in quite a lockdown mess. There will need to be some announcement by the end of next week from the FDA/company about a delay/conditional approval/rejection.
I did purchase another 1k this morning, at a price lower than the US closed yesterday…hoping this is somewhere near the bottom.

APUL, nice history but apart from history repeating a Russian crisis what are you saying about the prospects for ASHM?
I think they have a problem with their reputation at stake…..the Ft published an article which hinted at a central arrogance / deceit at the core that 3 guys in London could do a whole lot better than competitors with hundreds of local analysts…..shocking if true.

Now an unspecific early May.

Btw I like emerging markets and hold a high weighting….but when they go wrong they tend to go disastrously wrong.
I was looking to buy in around £4, then £3, now nearly £2…..I would prefer to see a clear bottom before buying in now. There has been too much uncertainty around the levels of risk this asset manager takes with client money to buy in.

I would beg to differ…the bottom could be some way off. It does depend on your perspective of profits and the future prospects.
Jupiter is On a similar AUM of £60bn r $78bn.
It’s mcap is 1.16bn or only 75% of ashm.
Ashm may have an emerging markets bias and higher long term growth prospects, however we don’t know yet how it’s high bets on evergrande and Ukraine/Russia will affect its reputation. It looks like some institutional money has walked away in Q1 and market movement s have been adverse in $ terms.

This could keep falling for a while…180-150p I reckon before it levels. Then a £2 takeover is possible….if Mr Combes can stomach selling at that price.

The results can only be in The second half of April now. So much for early April.

Hope there is not a technical problem as well as the GT staffing issue.

The latest of 3 directors buying since results….and looking at the chart there is strong momentum.
Looks like a buy to me…follow the directors money.

Insurance deals (for cash) tend to be much lower than TNAV, say 80% gives 160p. If they want a higher offer it will need to be an all share deal that dilutes the acquirer shareholders.
Clearly there is a large gap between what Just thinks it is worth and what others are willing to pay….they may be opportunistic or just directors over confident.
FWIW I am not expecting a takeover, but rather a steady rise over the next couple of years and so. Expect to be a long term hold. I need 115p to break even….but will not be selling any until we get to 150p.

It is in the share price already……in effect they are buying 24% of your shares in a tax efficient way.
The cash exiting the company reduces its value….but they reduce the number of shares so it seems the share price does not move…..but of course your holding does reduce in value. They hope the smaller business will grow the dividend per share faster than before and the sp will rise…..that is the theory anyway.

A dividend may be taxable under income tax, the cancellation of B shares under CApital Gains…

ISas and pensions will see little difference as will most small shareholders.

Overall I believe they did not buy something substantial in UK/Ire/Can with the money and make the business more profitable instead of shrinking it. But that can be hard to justify…as some shareholders think they should have the money and decide what to buy themselves.

Tesco ended up well enough….but they paid a special dividend rather than cancel B shares so the chancellor got more than he should…if your holding is in an ISA or Pension plan it should not make much difference.

Re long term, quilter is becoming a wealth manager providing advice for regular fee income. This is currently valued higher than life assurance companies and is a consolidating market…the large banks could buy, but bulking up through bolt on M&A is more likely. Aviva had the cash but are preferring to return it to their shareholders…if NatWest does not buy Tilney, they could do worse than look at quilter.
Should be good for solid dividends and some modest growth.

I can’t see any relevant news.

There is a story about covid levels rising in South African waste water….but that does not seem to be putting South Africa back into a lockdown.

If the buy back is holding the price up relative to peers it is hard to see?

There are some bigger trends to be seen over 6m with similar falls across the pharma sector. It does seems there is some rotation through the individual stocks with some contrary movements that then get quickly reversed.
I recently held innovent for only about ten days. During that time I was up 10% twice and down 5%. I exited for a 4% gain before the tax year end……a bit too volatile. That is another company that looks like HCM, a billion in cash, a long pipeline. They have fallen 75% largely because they screwed up their US application and did not do a bridging study from Chinese to US patients for safety and efficacy. I thought that had good prospects of a bounce….I think I will wait for a bit more trend/ momentum before buying in again.

I don’t know why Porsche likes to share his formidable stock picking skills by crapping on the bastions of the Uk market.
All I can say is that I love my Porsche which unbelievably is in profit after six months ownership.
But that is chip shortages and supply chain pressures for you…..and a favourable car tax regime for electrics.

CKHH has been buying back its shares this year….but only relatively small amounts.
It seems to be the anti HK share rising when the market tanks because much of its business is in Europe.
They have a lot of separately listed subsidiaries and I don’t see them delisting Hutchmed….
They did merge their failing oil company Husky with Cenovus in 2020, that is doing rather nicely now….maybe they can repeat the trick merging Hutchmed with A similarly funded pharma would be good for both……imagine adding the Hutchmed pipeline to a better strategic operator like beigene to create a China champion…(better not tell the yanks).

We are 40% into April…..definitely middle third and middle quintile…so I think mid-April has been reached…..no longer early April.

Also driving an upward trend in the SARxGBP exchange rate, rate now close to 19 when it was 21 quite recently….helping the £ share price.