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Look at the 3m chart…..it says declining….some might say the market reaction was under done….while there was no profit warning which is usually rewarded with a 15-25% drop, it is clear fee income will fall and will be down significantly in Q4 and for much f next year.
Perhaps much of this is baked into the current SP but I would not se surprised if there is another down leg when the results are published.
The market always overshoots so this will likely go down further before it reCovers on better flows and performance…..and it will eventually as emerging markets will return to favour, when and by how much are the unknowns….
This could well go much lower in the intervening period.

AUM down 18%.
Caused by poor investment performance -10% and customer outflows -8%..
The latter figure worries me more….customers withdrawing mandates shows a lack of confidence in asset management capability…damaging future prospects.

TOdays announcement re the Savo trials shows there is a subgroup that gets a 50% Response rate …does this make it more of a niche product than it was anticipated?
Anyway it seems the ph3 trials will be running for some time….

Trading update is listed for later this week…..AUM and client cash flows will be instructive….recent share price movements are down as are many other asset managers.
No reason to buy.

I will be looking at the following metrics
Sales growth in China for the three marketed drugs.
Cash burn, including any guidance for H2.
Any news about Surufatinib in Europe and US. They may have reached agreement with FDA on the design of the multi regional trial, I am not expecting news about the EU MAA review.
Forward view of pipeline developments….this was reduced in the 21 FY results, hopefully there may be indications about the timing of fresco2 data readout and more on the timing f the Savolitinib phase 3 trials.

I agree spikeyj….the oncology portfolio is the crown jewel.
They have yet to test combinations with alexion drugs to see if can boost the immune response,,,and deliver greater patient benefits…..
Az is going to spend its free cash flow on pipeline prospects…..a billion here three billion there..pretty soon there will be large value destruction or blockbuster success….it can be difficult to predict which way it will go, but you would like to think azs recent successes are more than just good luck.

This share consolidation is a bit of a mystery and seems to be pointless.
Haleon could list between 30-50bn or a third to 55% of the current mcap.
If new Gsk is worth £12, that implies a 3 for 2 consolidation
If new GSK is worth £9 that implies a 2 for 1 consolidation
Other than appearing to show an Apple equals an Apple and a pear there is no change for GSK.
I don’t know why they are bothering with this part of the transaction as it seems overly complex for zero benefit.

Good to see inmagene starting to develop the assets licensed from Hutchmed. That deal enabled HCM to get others to develop 4 assets in return for milestone payments and royalties….risk free potential earnings with the opportunity cost should they exceed expectations.
Surely HCM should be looking to sell candidates for 100m s or 1bn to big pharma instead? Given the position of their pipeline and discovery engine…..AZ agreed to pay up to 1200m USD for a new blood cancer drug this week….

More like shakin Stevens at the moment

While this looks like good news it does depend on how it happened.
Is it cause by upgrades and many have moved up or
If a low one of 50p has expired that is really no change
Do you know which it is?

Any M&A depends on CKHH, while I think they will do a deal and reduce their holding in a larger entity, it will be at nothing like these valuations….they play a very long game.

Deal announced for IPSEN to acquire all of epizyme for $1.45 per share plus another .30 if sales (excl China) hit $250m before 2026.
The warrant has no value at this level, but it might be converted into a similarly underwater warrant in ipsen….info not available on the press I have seen.
I am sure Hutchmed would have been invited to bid…..but did not want to commit such a large chunk of its resources….they will still ride tazverik if it is a success.

Gary
Insurance companies are much more cautious than you think. Since Solvency II came into force asset allocations for capital funds have become much lower risk…..from a capital risk perspective….sadly that means a lot of overpriced govt and corporate debt that has recently fallen in value as yields have risen (not so safe after all - who would have thought they were exposed because of all time low interest rates for years).
The publicSFCR document is the one to read to understand the capital position of an insurance company.

All the pharma cos I track are showing strong gains in HK this week.
There seems to be a sector revival going on.
Not out of the woods yet, but grounds for optimism that the worst in terms of market valuation and risk taking is over…..the pendulum always swings past the equilibrium point….it is reverting towards better value….

Interesting piece in the FT this week about pre clinical pharma cos facing difficult funding rounds.
While not immediately relevant to HCM it is possible that the surufatinib FDA decision could mean more funding is needed in 2024. Hopeful this will not be required if fruquintinib steps up globally.
If it looks likely then I expect the independent shareholders will push for a cost saving merger with a partner like innovent where overlapping programmes could be cut to allow both to continue with no fundraising needed.

Todays software investments, one a full acquisition and the other a staged buy are positive for the future. Enabling better fee earning services and expanding development capacity.

Trading update on 27 July is one to look forward to.

Fortunately the US is closed….but the UK has back tracked towards Fridays US price.

HK can have another go at HKD20 tonight.

Brave of Dr Kania to go out with no news to counter the disappointment of being knocked back in the US.
It seems there is not much to be expected in H2 apart from the fresco2 read out and potentially the MAA for surufatinib…..but that could be a while as physical inspections are needed in China…..no news is errr…..nothing to get excited about.

They are Just tying to drum up some profitable business.
BTW the fee to move to another broker is £15. So if you want to sell move first and pay your platform fee it will be cheaper than the 25p per share (about 15%) or max £50.
Moving before they put the charge up.

Aberdeen would do better to ask individuals to move to ii.

Good memory BBD, yes MNG needs to reengineer its business and create some growth in its AUM to offset market forces that are reducing fees. This will protect Improve underlying profits….headline profit is affected by mark to market on certain assets which protect the solvency of the company and is why the dividend cover is variable year on year while solvency remains strong.
The UK move towards wealth management (advice and platform) are steps on this journey, as is client fund flow which has turned positive for institutional business…(surely a lead indicator for retail) on the back of improved performance.
A Prufund variant has been launched in Italy with other territories to follow no doubt.

Meanwhile the capital tied up in the annuity back book is being realised and if solvency II capital turns out to be too prudent there will be more than expected and lasting longer. (Or an additional release if the rules are rewritten). Interest rate rises can reduce liabilities but also result in credit losses (there were downgrades but v low losses in the 2008 crisis)

Having said that, MNG is not immune from the wider market and financials are often the worst sector when there is a recession….looming, although long term savings and wealth management are more resilient as savers tend to think long term rather than gamblers playing th market.

Capital across the sector is generally strong and there is no reason to believe the dividend will be reduced at present…..if solvency gets to 170% then begin to worry about it, or if it not covered by underlying profits but at 190% plus it seems safe at present.

There is significant change in the Directors so it will be interesting to see if a new strategy emerges, new chair, ceo retiring, new CFO, new COO. The new CEO likely to want some new Blood to run the business units….

MNG is a long term buy and add for me through divi reinvestment and modest additional purchases within ISA/sipp wrapper.

Only based on management presentations the dividend has been based on the ongoing business and the capital return is the cash from selling the back book and the international business.
The share consolidation should have resulted in a share price of around 140. Other wealth managers have also fallen recently driven by the effects of inflation o reducing investments by new and existing clients….and prospects for higher taxes doing more of the same and higher interest rates affecting bond and equity prices. Hence they have gone from being the in demand part of financial services to potentially overvalued. My opinion is that investments are sticky with groups like quilter. The yield is likely to rise but driven by dividend rises rather than a price fall……but who know what the global outlook will be in a year or so. It looks difficult for a while with US China and Russia causing issues.