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On the asset side expect AUM to be down bc of market weakness 10%. Customer cash flow is more important, others report a slowdown but will the net ccf be positive? (Showing the underlying business is growing).
On the annuity side expect big solvency gains but also losses on asset value. A large ifrs loss if likely.

Hopefully a boring set of results.

Spikeyj, my opinion of Pru at present is that it is still a strong business generating significant sales with new business profits but I think it does need to answer some existential questions. Pru grew its Asian businesses under gloabalisation and an environment that encouraged engagement with China. Pru probably still has a largely western shareholder base.
What is Pru for? It’s sales indicate there is a need for insurance health and investment products so there is an economic rationale. I am wholly bought into the view that it can continue to grow at 12-15% pa in line with its markets.
Who should own Pru? There should be a transition towards Asian ownership. Pru needs to be seen as the Asia business it is.
Who should manage Pru? Probably not western managers….so the appointment of an Asian CEO is to be welcomed.
How China centric should Pru be? China dwarfs the other businesses so it naturally become dominant within Pru.

These questions are medium to long term issues that will play out over quite a long timeframe and possibly drag on the share price as westerners sell and Asians buy into Pru.

The demographics and economies of Asia means that in the long term Pru could be higher valued than currently (weighing machine beats the voting machine as Buffett would say). If you are a long term holder and believe the Asia growth story then hold or add.
If you are concerned about western disengagement from China including disinvestment from the region then get out in case it becomes forced.
What do you think?

Looks like Aviva is pulling itself together and can articulate what it exists to do.
I have long held a view that LGEN has had the clearest business strategy and this supports its divisional structure….we can see what is working and how the divisions support each other. That cannot be said for others in this sector.
Aviva was playing catch up and may still have some way to run before it is as reliable as LGEN.

I suspect a lot depends on China relations with the west.
More decoupling spells danger for EMs.

All asset managers are under fee pressure most of the domestic players reporting this week have lost around 12% AUA. Mostly through investment losses rather than client withdrawals.
ASHM was losing significant volume through client withdrawals, until that changes I consider this on a downward path.

Much better than I expected given AUA reduction of 12%.
Still very well capitalised, scope for significant dividends.

No further suggestion a deal is imminent…..we could be surprised tomorrow but looking less likely by the hour.
Certainties for tomorrow
AUA will be down and will cause a drop in fee income and profits.
NCCF will be positive…showing this is going to recover with markets generally.

expect 50% of the ye dividend.
Mixed bag of results today, Abdn down quite a bit, Lgen up.
Qlt and av report tomorrow….expect MNG to be more like Lgen than Abdn.

A strong set of results with capital generation improving.
It is an odd world when there is a whopping IFRS loss caused by market pricing of investments but the capital position significantly improves because liabilities have fallen by more than the assets supporting them…..it is the capital that matters and permits the interim dividend to be paid, only half a pence but better than nothing……and shows the company is recovered.

Now we need the market to recognise this.

If you saw the 3m chart on TV you would be fearing for the patient.

Ping an seems to want HSBC to do what Pru did to itself…..presumably a PRC attempt to bring the Bank under Chinese control.
Why would Ping An / PRC want to buy Pru? Easier to starve Pru from deals and exclude from China through licensing.

JPM must be expecting a lot of poor results this week except at LGEN.
They may have a jump on their ilk but could be badly exposed with AV, MNG, JUST, ABDN, QLT results all due….their adjustment in price for JUST will only be correct if the sp goes to 60p on results tomorrow…..otherwise they are just reflecting the current price.

They will need a distributor in Europe, they have said they will cover US themselves….are they going to do a drug by drug partnership or a wider ranging deal?
..IPSEN is based in France and will own epizyme shortly….so that is another relationship to leverage….and they will be reliant on AZ for Savolitinib sales. Lilly has competing products with Innovent, and was persuaded to walk away from fruquintinib in China, so it would be strange to go back to Lilly….
All will be revealed….I just hope the partner stumps up a lot of cash upfront which will incentivise sales to make the investment pay….and cover the shortfall on Surufatinib sales which are now three years away.

A huge relief…..but still up to 18m before approval is received - let’s hope the data holds up to scrutiny and no unexpected barriers are raised by geopolitics to prevent this treatment becoming available globally…..it will prolong many lives.

The YE results stated a target to increase underlying operating profit by 15%. It was £210m for 2021.
So £240m for 2022…..and £120m at HY? Unless there is some expected weighting towards H2.
As this target was only announced in April, you would hope they would have been confident in hitting it at the first marker. Let’s see.

Two drugs to be developed in China.
PLUS
On top of the drug development partnership, Sanofi is also making a hefty investment in Innovent, putting forward more than $300 million in the Chinese firm’s common shares, a price that is at a 20% premium to Innovent’s 30-trading-day average.

Those high level statements are corporate BS.
But the investment is needed, service was found wanting during covid as increased volume and lower capacity made their failings more obvious.
HL is expensive for some investors, they need to justify the cost by providing better services than others and more comprehensive self service.

Minniethemouse. Undoubtedly much better value than in 2019….but the business model is close to asset managers that trade on lower PE multiples…..so expect some pressure to remain on the sp.

Still a growing business with 91k new customers and net flows of +5bn.
The froth of the pandemic has cleared and I suspect much of the AUM is quite sticky and u likely to move elsewhere providing a sound basis for the business to move forward.
Still trades on a chunky multiple of earnings….but probably about right valuation for now.

PHNX has just purchased Sun life f Canada UK operations for 83% of own funds…let’s see what the equivalent is for Just when they report next week.

Amazed HKSE has not taken fright at the sabre rattling by China over Taiwan. ….although maybe the new patriotic thing is to buy when China feels threatened.