Member Info for Jatw

They have just been going around quietly delivering on New business and capital. All the insurers have posted IFRS losses because of market movements….as long as the capital position is good there is nothing to worry about.
I’m agreeing with brighty and looking for a strong H2 share price performance, hopefully it starts today.

The next 100m share buy back will take out more shares than expected.

Think Qlt is ripe for a big uk player to acquire for the distribution it brings.

Thanks Tacly…must feel great to be a broker punting out values 25% higher than current…and then see them fulfilled.

Not relevant to to Prudential plc

Asia results appeared strong and the market liked them overall.
But JXN fair value of $3bn is a bit of a shocker…..that is a 40% reduction since Athene invested.
Only about 80p per share.

No clarity on fund raise….only after JXN demerger.
Raising equity to pay off debt (which can be paid down from operational cash flow) does not seem like a good use of funds.

Given PRC attitude to Taiwan or China Taipei as it seemed to be referenced in the Olympic coverage, this might be a smart move to recognise greater China in one contract…..however it could give the Chinese govt a lever to try to control activities.

Pretty good….worthy of a relating of the shares towards 200.

Cvajt2
The SII SCR of 198% was a nice surprise.
The regulatory minimum is 100% which means they have enough assets to meet a 1in 200 year event. It is a Board responsibility to set its risk appetite and also to have a resolution plan (should the ratio fall to 100). In practice the Board will want to hold a minimum amount of capital - they do not publish this value because it is highly market sensitive and if reached would trigger capital raising and cause the SP to call. For MNG the minimum is likely somewhere around 140%, dividends May not be possible at 160% to preserve capital. A ratio of 198% indicates plenty of capital and an ability to make dividends, repay debt, share buy backs etc.
The 306% rate for the WP fund indicates this is very well capitalised. It is difficult for the shareholder to get much benefit from this, but WP policyholders might expect additional annual bonuses with 10% heading to shareholders.

The strong capital position supports the dividend which is safe for some time.

Having now listened to yesterday’s call, it is apparent they have done a lot of thinking about how to leverage the product to support HCM development.
The value at risk from this deal starts at $25m, but should pay for itself with further indications as they are proven.
Not sure how many of these type of deals HCM could absorb as it will utilise alot of management bandwidth.

Here is the response to an analyst question that hints at this deal and others.

“On the BD side, we are in discussions on a number of possible BD transactions. Obviously, now from a cash standpoint, we're in a position to be able to do some of these transactions. But we're being very discriminating. There are some fundamental boxes that need to be ticked for us to engage on potential in-licensing, for example. Those would be, look, we've got -- Wei-guo has got an absolutely clearly thought-out portfolio strategy here of trying to build tool boxes of weapons to go after specific areas.

So we're not going to partner or license in any asset that isn't synergistic with our portfolio. And it is not very closely linked into the therapeutic areas and the indications that we're going after. So that sort of pipeline synergy is critical. I think the second thing is we've seen a pretty significant inflation in the prices being paid for these in-licensing opportunities for China recently. And so I think we're quite disciplined in that context. We certainly won't be going out and paying over the market, and we'll be disciplined there.

I think the third area that we'll have to -- the box we'll have to take is synergy also with the commercial, but it makes sense that if there's synergy with the pipeline, there should be synergy with our commercial portfolio. But there may be some oncology assets maybe that are not necessarily directly linked with our portfolio that our commercial team could do well with. So we're looking at some of those as well. Yes, it's -- ultimately it's about synergy and creating value. I think also if we are going to partner, it's really not just about China, it's about trying to create value through combinations globally.

And so that's another thing we'll look at. So yes, we have a number that we're looking at, but we're being very disciplined about it. And I don't think -- we will not proceed with any of these licensing deals if they're not right for the company. I think if they are right for us, we'll do them. If they're not, we won't. We'll focus on our own activities. But we've got a lot of discussions kind of underway at the moment.“

Promising student with potential to progress, but has gone sideways over the last year.
Could do considerably better.

I think Ch alluded to some insourcing with partners that shared their views and with complementary products in the HY results.

This appears to fit the bill……and they have the cash to get these deals..this product is approved in US, so it would seem some shortish bridging trials for the China market May mean Chinese NDA late 2022 and approval late 23…..does not appear to do much for sales team productivity which I thought would be the objective on insourcing.

Q is epizyme worth investing in….the warrant is issued at an 80% premium….Davey may be able to enlighten us.

Interesting that having shipped 4 early stage candidates to Inmagene, HCM has acquired rights to a US developed drug from epizyme…

The analyst call should be interesting…..

Tom a further thought occurs to me……the Jxn shares will be issued as CDIs which are the UK equivalent of US ADS…..brokers should be able to treat this as a UK shareholding.

The more important consideration is tax. This distribution will be treated as a dividend, so income tax is payable.
Shares within a tax wrapper will not experience this hit, but any shares outside pensions and Isa wrappers if May be best to sell and take the capital gains result rather than pay income tax and then pay CGT on the future disposal.

Tom, brokers often organise a sale once they see allocations to their clients. The small shareholder concession does not apply to nominee accounts.

The question I have is what will be the value of the JXN shares.
If it is 250p per pru share then the SP becomes £100 and it is quite viable to hold a small number of shares ina nominee account.
No mention of the $3bn fund raise today….shares will rise if this is not needed.

Sounds like project Vulcan, which was 4 products of which three are landed.
The consideration was forecast as £5.5m net of cash /debt.
Paying £4.7m cannot be too far from the strategic acquisition basis set out in the fund raising.

Projects A and B were less advanced.
Hopefully the market sees the strategy is still in place, if a bit different following the earlier large acquisition.

Eps up x3 compared to H1 2020.
Formal reporting on 11/08

Commentary in other results (Aviva q1 and LGEN today) indicate the market has been slow.
Looking from the trustee and sponsor company perspective they may want to see what mortality is across the pandemic before signing a deal that may contain a windfall for the insurer.

Don’t expect good bulk sales from Just, but that should be a positive for capital retention and may outweigh any negatives from a sales perspective.

The HKSE, Nasdaq and AIM appear to be closing their price gaps towards some form of equilibrium, different taxes and costs as well as local demand will sustain differences of a few percent….they are almost there.

With the results a week old we should start to get revaluations coming through……I am not sure there was really much new information in the updates to move the dial but we can expect a number of uplifted price targets if only for brokers to catch up with the market…