Member Info for Jatw

Of equal interest might be how they acquired the increased stake…..who has sold out to Slater.

Presumably they have taken a huge loss on their stake and have lost confidence in VLG.

Other Qs what does Slater own that could be merged with VLG….these events dont happen in isolation. If you have a 15-20% shareholder keen on the idea it is harder for the Boards to refuse.

Just has a large share of the sub £100m market…..hopefully the consolidation idea for PPF is in the sub £10m market…..otherwise Just will be JustTakeaway.

The routine TUs are end July and end Jan…..the Dec item (and others) have coincided with acquisitions / new contract announcements….

Clearly the market thinks something is afoot today…..unless it is excited about the millions of people who are going to better off by £35/m following today’s NI cut…who will want to rush out and top up their self care products….

SAYE schemes usually have a 6month window to exercise the option to take the shares.

There is also a concession that allows `SAYE shares to be transferred into an ISA within 90 days of the option without triggering a CGT disposal. The shares go into the ISA at the current market value..

With a little careful planning on the timing, you can get £40k of shares into ISAs across two tazx years without any CGT being realised. Eg exercise the option in early Feb, make the first transfer in late Feband the second in early April…..Speak with customer services to submit the right forms.

The Jeffries investor meeting did not disclose much in the way of new information apart from two China regulatory items:

The Elunate NDA for Gastric Cancer is expected to be decided in mid 2024, so a full 12m review period.

The Amdiz NDA seems to be slipping into 2024. While they still said YE 23, they also allowed for it to go into 24. They have had 3m for Sovlep since the trial endpoint results were reported as met without the NDA being submitted in full, so it seems inconceivable they can submit Amdiz before the end of 23.

Whatever got into the Nasdaq trading did not seem to land in HK today….should bounce back in NY later today….

Seems to be gearing the balance sheet up…£40m of new shares issued and £120m of cash going out of the combined businesses…..debt to EDBITDA metric going up

There is always a trading opportunity on the financials…..trouble is timing and the guessing and we have seen it move quickly in both directions….this is still at a low earnings multiple and if China/US relations improve that will float the boat for many financials.

But no consistent direction from HK or NY they often seem to be moving in different directions on the same day.

Volume is very much in HK now, and I look there more than US for direction.

Hope the Xi/Biden meeting goes ok.

And PHNX has an extra £500m burning a hole in its pocket….that alone could buy a good chunk of Just….with the rest in shares…..just saying.

Yes…bed and ISA is a chargeable sale.

Positive on Just, last TP was 115.

Says just moving to a point of excess capital with potential for positive dividend surprises.

The BOD should have some interesting options to consider

- invest in more new business

- take on more risk by reducing reinsurance

- pay higher dividends or dividend+buy back/debt reduction…...

An interesting point from the IPSEN presentation to DB was that they have a minimum sales target of 300m EUR to buy in a drug/enter a partnership. So it would seem reasonable to infer that Suru cannot reach this target ex-china.

I did listen to the HCM presentation again and they said they were not pursuing Suru outside China at present….rather that do it themselves.

Dropped initially to match the US end of session but recovered that 3% to end broadly flat.

Still good volume.

There was always going to be one market caught out by the early FDA decision announcement….and the US did not like it.

The HK reaction today is positive in my view.

Correction, the PRT sales were 16 deals value of $250m….obv a senior moment

The announced results include origination of $2bn of annuities in Q3 and £1.6bn of pension risk transfer business.

Clearly they have an appetite for the type of business Just writes and would be able to capture more of the value than Just can.

Maybe there is more to the rumour a week or so ago….some decent gains so far this week when other insurers have not really advanced.

at the db meeting there was additional clarity over surufatinib, they have not found a partner due to the small perceived market….so they are going to do it themselves,,,presumably slowly if at all…..so surufatinib may be restricted to china, unless a new indication can be developed.

takeda have not given target sales….for fru*****inib.

sovlep said to be the next catalyst for the company…..still awaiting the effectiveness data for the slides

i cant recall amdiz featuring strongly, prepare for the trial to need more work.

Mr Market says he likes it a lot….

+14% at $44.5

Good Q3 results ahead of expectations and an uplift to expected results.

AZ on form.

New China deal for a weight loss drug is a bargain….if it works. Oncology has received lots of attention, the world is now turning to obesity as its number one medical problem that needs solutions.

Todays update from AZ notes $34m sales, this is down 1% (although up 6% at constant exchange rates).

This is consistent with the HY sales numbers….it seems NRDL inclusion will not benefit the pharma cos margin as volumes will drive cost of sales up - but given the licensing arrangement this is worse for AZ than HCM as HCM still gets manufacturing fee and a royalty on sales..

It should make management think twice about the benefits of NRDL inclusion - and reduce the discount on future applications (not sure that is feasible with renewals).