Member Info for Jatw

Pubs have reported stronger trading over the Christmas period….consistent across Marstons, M&B, ‘spoons.

Positive for the sector as a whole and for YNGs

And the markets make me look a fool….now 11/250 and the decline flipped to a 3% rise….quite unbelievable.

Today’s update from ABDN (a major shareholder) has not been well received.

I expect ABDN to sell down its stake over time and for this to be a drag on PHNX relative to MNG/LGEN/AV.

DYOR but I prefer others at the moment

Market is not impressed….SP change is 249/250 in the FT250.

Still ABDN has lots of liquid assets to maintain its dividend/shareholder returns as it can sell down its PHNX stake…..I think that will drag on PHNX for some time relative to other life assurance companies….

Market is appreciating the results.

A more positive picture….but one quarter does not make a trend.

I predict a lot of business for financial advisers this year from affluent customers wanting to protect themselves from future government actions while allowances are still present / generous.

Maximise Pension and ISA allowances, IHT protections. CGT planning.

Continues to be a burden to hold this share.

They have identified 150m of additional savings over the 75m already in progress….bloated cost base would seem to be a generous description unless there is a lot of wishful thinking in the target….which we may never know because management changes the business and “new costs” allowed for the new business..

The ii business seems to be doing relatively well compared to other parts of the group…..but whether this is worth the £1.5bn is debatable - I am expecting a hefty write down of good will at some point.

Recent results from brewers have been strong…it seems we Brits still like to visit the pub….and increasingly that involves food and other services.

The old fashioned boozers may become less productive as Gen z and Millenials dont drink as much….but closures are a property redevelopment play, so not much to worry about….

FT reporting that the BPA market is set to deliver £60bn of premium in the current year….

There is more than enough business to go round with participants reporting staffing as a limiting factor in how much business they can process….

1 Expect Just to continue to dominate at the smaller end (but this is largely automated for Just)

2 Expect Just to pick up a share of larger deals.

Look for the cumulative effect of writing volume at decent margin to show through….both in the value of future business and in free cash flow (6% of the VoNB each and every year for about 25-30 years)

Market perked up a bit on Friday and following through this morning as the TU was digested.

Hoping for a strong movement when the results come out.

Unbelievably this is 30% off from the high hit with the FDA approval of Fruq.

Re: Buy backs, there is still much spending to be done to get to cash flow positive from sales and royalties alone, but as they dont expect to raise more capital they are likely to end up in a position where they have excess capital….but that is an issue for a few years time.

In the short term they should buy in the market as treasury shares to meet share awards to staff and Directors.

I have bought this morning …there are expectations of 1 or 2 new players entering the bulk annuity market this year…..surely they will look at investing in Just as an entry route rather than set up a new entity and seek regulatory approval……

Just seems to be unloved /mis-trusted/misunderstood.

New business margin in excess of 8.5% would mean NB profit around £350m with £80m invested to support this business which should leave £250m for other purposes (including dividend / capital return / growth in 2024 and beyond)

The only fly in the ointment is £400m of funded reinsurance in 2023, so presumably there may be a small number of £bn in this business where Just retains some liability and is reliant on collateral arrangements to protect from the failure of the reinsurer….the FCA is investigating whether additional capital is required to make these arrangements robust…

Just has a dominant position in the smaller end of the DB transfer business and can move up the scale if it chooses - although margin may be lower on larger deals.

15% growth pa means a doubling of profit in 5-6 years…..

Surely at some point it must move up?

KKR playing hardball…..changing from a court scheme to a take over offer with a lower threshhold….

This increases the likelihood of a deal at the current price….as not too many holders will want to continue to hold illiquid shares in an unlisted company…..not sure that platforms would allow that for PIs.

New offer document expected next Wednesday.

Still possible that could come with a higher offer, but looks unlikely.

IS This sudden plunge is indicating the deal is in trouble?

Outflows still happening…..-3% of AUM in the quarter the positive market performance means a net increase of 4% across the quarter.

Some continued volatility ahead until the client flows turn positive….in the meantime what will clients do….will they bank the gains in the last quarter or commit more money to chase the markets higher…..

With events with global repercussions still playing out in the Red Sea, China Taiwan tensions and s swathe of elections in major western democracies this year there may be no safe havens.

Only one trade this morning…..v unusual.

Q1 had -8% AUM 30% was investment performance and 70% outflows (2.9bn USD).

It will be interesting to see what these numbers look like given the rally in Nov/Dec in markets…and the outlook for interest rates has changed to some reductions later this year…..hopefully the outflows are reducing and performance was stronger….although the best we can probably hope for is a flat AUM.

What does the softening share price indicate?

Take your pick from:

The deal is not getting done at this price.

The deal is getting better by the day and will succeed.

Will there be a revised offer on Monday?

Searching the www suggests ITP has a prevalence of 9.5 per 100k people…..and it appears to be global rather than concentrated in certain markets…..more importantly, the condition persists for many years with an 80% survival after 5 years…hence the pharma co just needs to get to the patient for a multi year treatment plan.

You would think this would meet criteria to attract a global partner.

Yes some positive news…slightly behind schedule, but priority review will help get this to market in 2024 (approval in June/July?)

They did also promise an NDA for Amdizalisib in 2023….they have not given a trial result for that as yet…..to be confirmed whether that has been a positive result….the P1/2 trial numbers were very small so may not have been that representative of the larger Ph2 registration study….in which case it will be a full ph3 or deprioritised….