Member Info for Jatw

HL has set a date of 16 Jan to vote on the current proposal…….will be waiting to see what happens over this weekend…..not that PI votes will count for much…..

It will take a couple of years before we see any meaningful recovery here….

First we need to hear from Fitzpatrick about how he is going to reshape the business….it will likely need some quite heavy re-plumbing to get it working better for customers….which will then take time to flow through into business improvements…..

In the meantime they must be finding it hard to compete for new business….

A hold at best IMO….

Lmds

I have thought some more on this and think the most likely outcome is a sweetened bid….although not by much as that makes KKR and the Board look silly. I have added this morning at 944. If I only get 955 then the deal will more than cover its costs.

So there is a two week delay.

The announcement states no other indications of interest have been received….and the Board wants to progress the deal.

I doubt that KKR will want to go much higher, I would think £10 including the dividend is a likely maximum, so 5% uplift may come forward next week.

If the deal proceeds on current terms, then there is only a marginal gain to be had by getting back in.

If the deal is withdrawn, then a fall should be expected…..it will be a deal delayed and should return within a year.

The meetings on 9 Jan are going to be adjourned.

The votes for the deal must be uncertain….you pays your money and takes your chances as to whether the bid will be increased or be withdrawn…..

a pretty poor session for pharma in hk.

hcm only down 3%

innovent -7

beigene -9

a big 6 months for fru*****inib coming up……eu and japan approval. china approval of gastric cancer snda…..and the small matter of the royalties from early us sales.

Lloyds is selling a £6bn BPA business - it is suggested that Royal London is a prime bidder….It is not clear whether Lloyds is just selling its back book or whether bid teams and administration is also up for sale. It will be interesting to see what the disposal profit is relative to CSM/embedded value of the book rather than the pure liability value…..

The £6bn liability is about 3 years new business for Just, so I would not expect Just to be a bidder…but you never know….

It would be interesting if they could form a JV with one of the potential PE entrants.

It is a game of chicken at the moment, maybe someone with a detailed knowledge of the AIM takeover rules could comment on what happens if the bid gets a 70% vote.

AZ has signed another Chinese deal with Allorion (operates in China and US, but appears to be unlisted in US). The deal looks similar to that struck with HCM for Savo. A new EGFR drug will be developed by AZ in return for staged milestone payments and future royalties.

I expect Just has sustained its sales volumes (in terms of individuals covered) in H2……annuity rates have been higher and although slightly off their highs still provide better customer value than for many years due to higher interest rates……those same interest rates will have reduced the annuity liabilities being taken on from DB schemes….but the added value to Just should be similar.

My hope is that we see mid 90s following the trading update.

It looks like HCM has missed its China NDAs for Sovlep and Amdiz. I am somewhat surprised by the former as the results were read out in August, so a full four months have passed.

Resources are likely more limited due to the restructuring of the company this year and possibly focused on negotiating NDRL than new applications…..

They will need to up their game in 2024 as they now have listed 9 applications (including the confirmatory savo study) for completion by end of 2024. If they dont file in 2024, these cannot be approved and marketed in 2025 (unless there is accelerated approval).

Every missed milestone delays approval and defers revenue….. An extra $m or two spent on the regulatory processes in 2024 will be repaid manyfold in 2025/26.

Only a few are too big to be acquired……Pfizer has a $43bn deal recently agreed for Seagen.

My long held view is that China will want to see some local champions emerge and I think CKHH will swap their stake for a smaller holding in a bigger entity. They gave up on being the majority shareholder a long time ago…so it will come down to deal structure (cash/equity mix)….it will be the larger party giving value to the smaller party, so an offer by a larger player with a mix of cash / equity is my most likely outcome that is acceptable to CKHH and China regulators.

Would you rather:

Sell to a Big Pharma (Takeda, AZ, PFE etc)

Merge with a larger China player (eg Innovent / Beigene)?

Takeover / merge with a smaller Chinese player? (Eg Gracell)

Continue as an independent and grow organically?

Furry - have you bought more in the hope of an increased offer?

I thought 959 was a good market price given the bid and sold 50%…..now thinking of buying it back…..it is a case of 963 if the current deal goes ahead 1000 or more if the price is raised or back to 700 (until the next bid).

Looks like AZ has followed suit and added small Gracell to its portfolio for a mere $1.2bn.

It is about $1bn when Gs cash is taken off.

Probably cheaper than licensing in the long run…

Or is it all over……17% shareholders are disappointed with the offer - they will have a price.

I wonder how much they will settle for….

I think they need more financial results out there, with a quarterly sales update becoming necessary……..

If the 9 NDAs are made by end 2024 that are on their presentation, it will be the end of 2025 before those are being marketed and the end of 2026 before we have a start up year sales number…and Feb 27 for a FY in a fully launched form…..so there is plenty of time to get back in if it looks successful….and plenty of reasons to go elsewhere in the short term

OBNW, I agree often a redevelopment play…..*Greene King was acquired by. CK Asset a HK based property company in 2019 pre-CoVid….have to think they are less interested in selling beer than rental and development income.

I hold the Non-voting YNGN shares….they get the same dividends and have the same rights in an offer situation but trade at a significant discount to the A shares,,,,,I am hoping they will do what Schroeder’s did and convert to a single class….there has been a significant divergence in SP this last year with gains going to A shares only….so there is the potential for a catch up in the N s too in the short term…..if you want a better yield invest in the Non Voting shares.

Yes…yet another day of unexplained volatility….which could well reverse tomorrow…..

Pointless ups and downs….but they do provide entry points for a short term gain if that is what you want.

Apollo said to value PIC around£5bn….HY capital/ownfunds…around £6bn

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