Member Info for Jatw

It is sensible to review strategy.

In recent memory LGEN has disposed of its heritage book to Reassure (now Phoenix) and its personal lines business. It also started building prefab housing and took a decision to close it last year.

There will be some non-core assets that can be sold, and subscale units to make bolt on acquisitions….the world is changing in asset management and they had the LDI issues so they may want to make some changes in that division.

The main LGR division is big enough in the UK, maybe some US expansion to be done…

It will be hard to change the group radically, but I do expect restructuing, cost savings and more outsourcing.

The company website has the results on the 8th……I am aware sites like HL show them reporting on 7th….I would hope the company has it right and it is the sources that HL and others use that is out of date.

I am expecting TNAV to increase by 30p which all accrues to shareholders….there is about 100p of debt in the value they publish….the sp will trade at a discount….given this increase should recur for several years to come I expect a strong increase in SP for the patient.

Will have to see if the weekend press report any story.

Could just be expecting decent results next week.

The target market is indeed very large….but what will the penetration be? And can they deliver the tests accurately?

1% of 10m is 100k and $95m revenue….that is a significant multiple of what they have done so far….dont expect a smooth ride..there will be operational issues if demand picks up…but that would be a good problem to have to resolve compared to bankruptcy.

And hitting $55 now.

The profit numbers are crazy…..if the yanks ever adopt IFRS17 the volatility would go away and it would look more like it is making the adjusted profit.

The RBC valuations make 400% approximate to a normal 180% SCR under Solvency II.

They have plenty of surplus capital and can afford to continue to pay the dividend and make buy backs…..it seems they may buy back another 6m shares this year…..boosting EPS for us and management. $60 later this year I think.

After a bit of a soggy patch, today’s rise is possibly a result of Haleon impressing with their self treatment products indicating that customers continue to purchase.

Roll on the results in early April.

They have in the past put a concensus paper on the website a day or so before the results.

Covering the dividend with operating cash flow would be a good start….divi cash cost flat but total raised bc of the Buyback.

Progress on the cost saving agenda and capital generation targets

Improving Fund Perforrmance

Sorting out the platform and advice businesses in Wealth.

Pointers to come from LGEN and AV next week about how the larger life offices are faring.

The dead cat bounce has the look of a decomposing body rising to the surface before it sinks to the bottom waterlogged to rot.

Or Schroders…..they have a JV with Lloyds for mass market and the wealthier STJ clients may be attracted to the blue blooded boys and gals at SDR.

Although SDR was sniffy about the culture at MNG, and may well turn their nose up at the oiks at STJ.

The results on Fri 8 March cant come soon enough for me.

That there is no run up in the SP tells me there is nothing surprising expected in the results….in which case Just can expect to be trading on a P/E of less than 5. Have a strong capital position and be increasing the NAV /share attributable to shareholders (There is about £1bn of debt).

There may be little coverage by analysts, but surely some are noticing Just is a lot stronger and more valuable than it has been for many years….A SP gain of 10-20p would be most welcome.

Nothing to see hear folks! The plan is in place, just a little slower than we promised.

US reaction is muted….I would expect HK to open positively (ie recover todays loss), but not much more.

There was nothing really to get the analysts excited…first dividend, buy back.

I expect continued pipeline and revenue progress but a relatively dull share price unless the Board decides it has excess capital and can either spend on licensing / M&A or make a return to shareholders….it may get interesting in three years time when they should be profitable….only 25 years in the making, patient capital indeed.

TichTich

If you look in the SFCR (Solvency and Financial Condition Report) and probably in an appendix to their results presentations you will find a table setting out how the SCR (Solvency Capital Ratio) is affected by various adverse events…..this should give you some sense of how the capital position (and hence dividend paying capacity) may develop……the problem with these pieces of individual data is that no single market event (interest rate / equity change) will occur without some effects in other sensitivitiies. The longevity is largely independent of the markets on the upside…..and can come about through a series of medical innovations but a mass death event although positive for the longevity reserve may also create financial issues as seen in the recent pandemic.

The companies and regulators seem to believe the current SII capital requirements are sufficient and there has not been a major life insurance failure since their inception to demonstrate otherwise. (Touch wood/ fingers crossed…etc)

Is the market thinking QLT will need to compensate clients for past service failings?

Results in March will need to make clear what QLT situation is.

There has been a fair amount of slippage from 2024 NDAs into 2025….and the Amdiz items have slipped out of the 24/25 timeline (under review but my view would be unlikely in the next two years).

This does not seem to change the story in that the cash flow from the oncology business is rapidly improving.

I hope they can land a partner for Sovlep later this year - once the China NDA is approved they will have a better case. I assume that is going to be in Q3. I also hope that Takeda will begin to develop Fruq for other indications (the GC indication will be first, not sure how Lilly / Inno feel about the sintilimab combo being taken outside China - that probably needs another licensing agreement).

Looking forward to reading the Takeda quarterly results for Fruqzala sales - hope HCM adopts a quarterly sales update.

The overall profit of $100m is a strong result, stripping out the 280m recognised of the Takeda upfront payment there was a loss of $180m which is half the $360m loss of 2022.

The Amdiz news is not unexpected (it was too quiet), so that is some revenue missing from 2025/26 but not critical.

2024 revenue growth is going to come from Takeda royalties and Sovlep in China. They should make a further dent in the underlying loss and possibly turn another profit this year depending on how much of the remaining Takeda cash is recognised.

2025 hopes depend on Takeda making the most of Fruqzala globally. They should be close to an underlying profit.

No surprises….a very solid set of numbers.

I think it was a sector rotation into Beigene, HCM Inno etc were down.

I am not expecting any surprises today…but the time to find out has arrived

The business damage is yet to emerge…..

Partners / distribution staff leave to other IFA networks

Clients going elsewhere

Poor servicing caused by the above.

A three year recovery plan means it will be a very different business before it is investible again.

I suspect there will be a lot more red ink in the next year and the SP has further to fall….

Eventually there may be some M&A to deliver some value but this may be a low ball PE deal so that the business can be broken up out of the public gaze,

It is a sell for me

The focus is on the St James Place 5h1tshow today.

Now SJPABRDN is some M&A no one wants to see.

2027 is the timeline for some sort of recovery…..

This is a speculative investment for the next 3 years….best avoided….the best partners are likely to drift away to IFA networks and other wealth managers….there is lots of red ink to come from SJP.

In some ways it does seem strange that the scale of these plans / provisions have not been flagged earlier.

I am expecting the new CEO to explain the problems and his plan to get the business moving again….he had better be convincing on both…..maybe he will want a new CFO.