Member Info for Jatw

Swanley, if I understand correctly you the down trend is not as strong as it was and there may be signs of a change coming…..can you tell if that will be a flat period or sharp up and what are the chances that the down trend will re-establish itself as the dominant direction?

Stargate….that sounds like a positive thing….does your crystal ball have a forecast?

14 March just crept over 30%…..some delicate discussions should be underway to determine what has to be offered to get to 50%. I suspect £10 is about the maximum KKR has in mind….but that may still be light.

Not sure RENX has any capability to engage with regulatory powers outside the US which has been their focus…..and they cant afford to which is where a licensing deal / takeover makes sense if this product is viable, it will have application in most populations, particularly the fatter western populations and the mass populations in China and India where there is still a lot of obesity caused by poor diet rather than over consumption.

I would rather see Pru hike its dividend substantially rather than a BB.

It does not yield much and the compensating SP growth seems non-existent.

We know roughly what the pipeline news will be this year and the in-market China sales. Unknowns are how successful Takeda will be ex-China and whether Sovlep will attract a partner paying a decent upfront fee.

Beyond that there are potential corporate actions to sell / demerge the subsidiary businesses which is possible and whether CKHH wants a strategic M&A action which has appeared unlikely in the past. CKHHs need to monetize its investment in HCM is likely low, it reports on Thursday next week.

What does seem clear is that HCM does not appear to need to raise any further equity finance. Indeed it looks increasingly likely that it already has surplus capital but it is unlikely to return any of that to SH before 2027.

With the above in mind, I would think HCM should become less volatile and more news driven but what do I know.

At the risk of being contradicted by the market, the initial profit taking that caused a retreat below 100p seems to have been overcome and there seems to be more support to sustain the SP above 100.

As mentioned in earlier posts, I expect to see 20p added over the year, and I suspect this will be in steps with the HY and FY numbers. Of course a market movement could override this expectation but the annuity market seems to be set fair at the moment.

They paid out 100% of what they earned in dividend and buy back…..last two years they have bought 3.6bn x2 and it has done them no favours….

Pru needs to up its dividend rather than BB as it pays a low dividend - if it were a UK Life Office we would expect 70p for an £8 share price….they say there is growth, then invest in the business and pay better dividends to shareholders to see the share price rise.

Results today NBP +33% to US$4bn driven by HK

Operating profit US$6.2bn

Dividend +5%

Will Pru better these results?

The astrologers/chartists have got this one badly wrong…..apparently there was a ‘death cross’ at the end of Feb with the ADRs around $15…..that is said to be a very bad sign….

Maybe there will be some news that hopes to explain this weeks exuberance…or more likely there wont.

Davey will be kicking himself if he really did sell up.

There may well be some contagion with other businesses but STJ thought itself the biggest and the best and it incentivised /rewarded the greediest.

The salesmen and supporting staff where I worked always wanted to copy the STJ schemes and compliance/HR had to stop them implementing the worst aspects.

There will be self-justified reasons to continue charging for ongoing advice when it was not received - the client did not respond, the client was told the fee etc.

Let’s be honest about ongoing advice - for most people unless there is a life event a three or even 5 year review is ok. And for most investments performance will vary around the average. Managed portfolios where the investment advisory firm can change investment funds within the overall aim of the client and contact with the client to check there is no major change is good enough for most clients and should carry minimal cost.

And Nasdaq has moved to a £3 equivalent……

All those inexplicable angst inducing falls after the FDA approval near wiped out in a few days of without any new information.

Innovent has moved sharply up too, but Beigene/Junshi much less.

It was a late late show in HK with it only really moving up towards the end of the day.

The UK and US pre-market seem to be taking it a little further today.

FOMO seems to have taken hold.

These rapid changes in value help no-one and only convince me that this is a long term buy and hold proposition….the future seems more certain.

CKHH reports on 21 March….I am not expected them to make any announcements re Hutchmed, but some more acknowledgement within their results pack would be a start.

Abandon ship!

The dead cat bounced but was not brought back to life.

This is now sinking gradually lower and I suspect Porsche is rightly predicting the SP starting with a 3.

This is only getting worse for the next 18m, with a recovery only starting in 2027.

Expecting some broker upgrades this week before the analysts have to focus on Pru/ PHNX/MNG

I suppose it relates to statements at the Party get together…overall I dont like these no news movements, they can easily be reversed.

For me, the next important piece of news will be the Q1 24 sales made by Takeda in the US.

Nov/Dec was $15m, I am hoping for building momentum with $30m in Jan-Mar and that they can build this up to $50m per quarter by the end of the year, giving in-market sales of around $150m which would generate a royalty to HCM of $20m plus other manufacturing and support charges. It was interesting that the EU market is considerable larger than the US (although the pricing may be lower when that is determined), hence approval by EMA is also to be eagerly awaited, hopefully there will be meaningful EU sales later this year.

And the proceeds to the previous owners of the vet practices…

Got to pay for Head Office somehow…the HQ people will earn way more than the vets.

Some stronger results coming through…today’s update is helpful, but the range is wide…room for some assumption changes/provisions but the positive improvement is there for all to see.

Sadly RSA seems to be limping towards becoming a basket case.

AIA reports on Thursday (after HK close)….Q3 showed positive progress with value of new business ahead 35% on 2022 and China up 20% in Q3.

It will be interesting to see what AIA reports…but those figures dont merit the hammering Pru and AIA share prices have taken…