Member Info for Jatw

It has been holding steady around 230. Suggesting little excitement, and steady numbers in line with expectations are coming.

Hopefully they are seeing green shoots of recovery in the Asset Manager and can tell a story about Wealth (they will be asked about compensating clients when annual reviews may not have taken place - PFP, Sandringham and Continuum provide the exposure to this risk). MNG probably just make the top 20 that the FCA is seeking data from.

Innovent results are tomorrow….it carries a higher MV and has a larger pipeline but makes larger losses. The company strategies seem to be similar and they are at a similar position of moving towards sustainable profitability. It will be interesting to see how the results are assessed in the market..

I think we know the answer is four letters…….CKHH…..

The assets and the pipeline can be evaluated and a number suggested for a deal, but unless it is a very large number (2.5-3x current) I doubt CKHH would entertain it.

Astra seems to be buying the Company when it wants the lead product…….it has to be that way in rare diseases, and I expect as the treatments extend out into rarer cancer treatments.

The deal with HCM is from a different time in AZ’s history. I suspect that if Savo was being offered up today, they would try to take the whole company.

I see HCMs future being a larger China entity and its drugs licensed for use where it is politically difficult for China based organisations to operate. AZ / Lilly etc may need to split their assets into China / non-China (perhaps US/ RoW) entities at some point with cross licensing arrangements if it becomes operationally difficult to be a player in US and China markets.

I thought the advertising is too generic…..and very millennial….you have to fear for the next generation when Dads have to be there for emotional support…

There are quite a few territories that now accept applications where there is an existing approval in a recognised territory (or two) and do not require local trials….Takeda has the option with China and US approval to start these approvals now where they can deploy effectively or via third parties if needed.

Of course regulatory approval is only part of the battle - getting it adopted within insurance systems and publicly funded bodies is also tough (eg NICE for NHS England).

Recent Pharma/PE deals have included a deferred element….I would not be surprised to see much of the value over the current company value offered as a 2 year warrant payable on certain performance metrics.

Differences in the timing of any takeover payments may be significant as may be the value….

The current mcap is around £40m

What would you take of these options:

£80m upfront?

£60m upfront and 60m deferred?

£40m upfront and 200m deferred?

Silk oil, think you are right for the in force book. The increase in interest rates has made annuities (individual and bulk) more attractive so volumes have gone up - that growing business should result in higher future profits and capital returns. The capital effects of changing market conditions are published within the SFCR….the business will be run to maintain adequate capital across business cycles. We should take some comfort from the fact that insurers largely came through the finance crisis, covid and the recent inflation /war environment without serious damage…although they did have to cut dividends in the GFC and some suspended dividends at the BoE request early in Covid

AIA continued its fall in HK overnight….ona 1 year basis it is now slightly worse than Pru.

Not sure this bodes well for Wednesday’s results….but I hope Pru stresses the positives in the future.

The adverts by claims management companies have started to appear for Quilter….

Once there are significant complaint numbers, the company cannot make offers before the Ombudman referral time kicks in….with a min £750 cost to the company for each case….and many more costs of investigation before there is any thought of compensation….The industry needs a solution to stop this spiralling out of hand for everyone.

The bigger problem may be how the company deals with the Partners many of whom bought books of business from other agents with expected cash flows and those may now be cut and reduce the value of the businesses they run. If SJP mishandle the partners there will be litigation galore and it could sink SJP as a business.

It seems like a one way bet at the moment….every day another 1-3% comes off the price.

DB updated several insurers today, but only reflecting recent market movements and keeping them at hold….so not really indicating any strong + or - conviction.

It will move the broker average up….which always helps but not really informative.

If I recall correctly from the earnings call the company was saying Q3….There has been no indication of a priority review from EMA so my guesstimate is the process runs through against a standard timeline.

The published process is 210 days for CHMP to give a scientific opinion and then there is the European Commission approval 67 days later, which is a total of 277 working days approx 14 months (with a few public holidays). So that would be August, although that is a peak holiday period so it may be September.

~The market opportunity was shown as 3x US, JP is the same as the US…which is why 2025 should be so much better than 2024.

They have proven good judges of what to buy…..I prefer growing the business over a share buy back it seems a more positive use of the company resources. Hope this is another good one.

Elsewhere Nerd of Steel did say he would be back…..apparently he has been doing very well on a 3x geared Nvidia ETF….so no regrets.

FWIW there is something in the charting spotting patterns, but unless it can be corroborated with actual trading data / events to confirm the cause of the market behaviour I don’t have any belief in it.

As an example (happened in the last two weeks) I have a share that a chartist declared had a death cross (a very bad thing) - the share proceded to gain 30% in the following week. There has clearly been a change in sentiment, but it was not because of the death cross…..The falls leading to the death cross and the subsequent rally occurred with no company specific information and some adverse geo-politics. In my view there was no reason to support the death cross assessment and it proved an unreliable indicator. I am sure there are also lots of affirmed cases cited by chart followers…..but that does not make it reliable imho..

Can’t see what is going to cause this to go much higher….it seems to be hitting resistance around 230.

Most of today’s fall is the dividend coming out, but that 3m shareprice chart is truly horrible, down 20% already this year…..I do wonder what will stop the decline and will this happen before is goes below 100p which if it happens should surely mean Bird’s time is up.

The SP chart suggests no end in sight for the decline.

Until the remediation is scoped and the reputational effects on clients / partners / staff can be ascertained there can be no recovery….the only thing that is guaranteed is that it will overshoot on the downside…..only the brave/foolish will buy this year.

Yes, I have been following this company for some time……

….your points about the needs driving the value of the tests are well made…it is just astonishing that the company has had so little commercial success to date…..which is why I and many others are sitting on substantial losses.

There is still significant risk that this company is sold cheaply or no bidder emerges and it folds. Sorry if that conflicts with your view of the prospects.

The dividend is taxable as income tax, if you sell before XD then that is part of your capital gain calculation….the taxation of CGT is more favourable than income for most investors.