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This still depends on test volumes…..what is the catalyst to unlock a significant increase in volume? Or will it never come?

The recent fund raising is perhaps sufficient to be able to demonstrate growth…..but then if that occurs why would you sell out?

Unhooked, suspect this is just the unwind of yesterdays rise. a relatively large number of people trying to take advantage of any early mark up we all expected to see based on the TU, in the end the MMs have seen them coming.

It matters more what happens in the next few weeks - will the small cap funds that still exist coming knocking?

Not really a premium when NASDAQ closed at 80c and the raise is @75c

But it is a premium on the last fund raising which was at 20p (51c)

If a deal is certain, I am surprised they have gone outside the previous funding circle….unless it is a signal to the market that they may get $1 or more.

Back to where it was following the FY trading update….which was very positive.

Whether the accounts will translate to another gain tomorrow is anyone’s guess, but management credibility is on the line if they dont measure up to the TU.

I would expect MMs to mark the shares up tomorrow, but whether that sticks is debateable.

And it starts to sink again…..the apparently bombed out price does present an opportunity for M&A but it would be very high risk for the bidder (I doubt a listed company would take it on) as they would need to offer a premium to get interest from current management and BoD. A bidder is more likely when the hard work has been done and current difficulties fully quantified.

Avoid until end 2025 is my view.

The market needs reassurance that the 2023 sales can be repeated and exceeded.

I expect them to add 20-30p to TNAV in 2024….and for the SP to be 120p at the 2024 results….if they can point to additional growth and value added, then 130p is possible.

The AACR presentations are not what we might expect….. early investigations for 3 new candidates and several for surufatinib in combination or different types of cancer. Very much experimental stuff.

Still waiting for the Sovlep results to be presented in detail….I think they said that would be mid-year.

HCM has made good on its pipeline promises so far this year….it now only has a Taz bridging study and a possible Savo submission highlighted this year.

There are now a number of submissions with the Regulatory Authorities.

Fruq - GC in China, CRC in EU and JPN, with Sintilimab BTD in China

Sovlep -

Savo - confirmatory and new indication for MET-14 EXON skipping.

That represents a significant boost to sales by mid 2025…

To do list - get a partner for Sovlep and start globalised development.

Dividend cover is better than the bottom line suggests, Cash from operations >2.25 x dividend, an amount = to dividend was paid out in deals they expect to enhance future earnings.

The product approval pipeline and commercialisation of recent progress suggests strong revenue growth supporting EPS growth of 8-14% (yes quite a wide range but they are guiding positively).

Obviously growing a v large company is not easy, but this should be a safe dividend payer and with earnings largely inUSD is not reliant too much on future UK Govt….the could go to US if UK becomes too difficult for them.

CKHH is having a management reshuffle whether it will mean anything for HCM remains to be see. HCM did get a bit more of a mention in the annual results as it is one of the bright spots within the conglomerate. That said, HCM is reported as a financial asset alongside CKHH investment in a Canadian oil producer (it used to hold a larger share of a smaller producer and merged it about 5 years ago). If CKHH needs funds these stakes are most likely for sale, however with gearing of 16% this seems unnecessary at present.

Commentators suggested some asset shuffling within the CK Group might result from the management changes - although there are no new faces at the top table.

Apart from Mr To representing CKHH and Ms Shih as a further director, HCM seems to be structured to operate independently. There are many pharma cos under development in China, consolidation will happen/can be expected to be encouraged by Beijing to create national champions…..HCM needs to be part of that discussion.

Naive treatment does mean no previous treatment - I suspect surgical removal of the tumour would also be acceptable within this definition as it does not involve pharmaceutical treatment.

No indication of priority review (maybe to come?) but we can anticipate approval in mid 2025 and new revenue in H2 25. The commercialisation would be with AZ under the licensing deal.

Another +ve upgrade…

Momentum is now on our side…for the moment

And will be settled in 14 days, for those thinking of their CGT position it is in this tax year if you accepted on/before it was declared unconditional.

Not sure what happens if you are yet to accept as the settlement will be up to +14 days.

Agree Cheapshares

The dividend yields are excessive on UK financials at present and they are locked into paying the same level of dividends going forward as they will likely be punished by cutting the dividend (unless they commit to BBs in lieu). They should hold the dividend roughly where it is for the foreseeable and either invest in the business, reduce debt or execute regular BBs - they just need to explain the balance to the market .

Update today is a 10% increase in acceptances…the RNS referenced below refers to 17% interest being assigned to the bid…..so clearly not all acceptances are registered (unless a lot have gone the other way this week).

I expect this will be declared unconditional v soon.

Amones, from what I can tell AZN has been acquiring in areas that are novel but adjacent to their existing businesses.

They get new capabilities and can then explore combinations with their other therapies. HCM may be producing better/ safer compounds but if you already own similar assets the incremental value may not be there to justify the 5/6bn CKHH would want to sell up. However a share based merger when you can then take forward the better products and deprioritise parts of the research programmes would add value to the combined entity.

Spikey

I too was rather bemused by the market reaction today as the results and the continuation into 2024 seemed to be quite good and positive.

There is always something + and something - across the markets Pru operates….Vietnam seemed to be the downer this year, but that is not disastrous and demonstrates the reliance through diversity as other markets performed well, including most of the larger ones.

There is a slide in the presentation deck showing operating free surplus through to 2027 which is rather back loaded…..2024/25 are largely flat over 2023 and wonder if that is cause for some of the fall today.

They do need to look at their Shareholder rewards, their gearing is low at 20%, so they have scope to increase the divi or a buy back by increasing the gearing….The business seems to be capable of growing at 12-15% so at some point the compounding returns will allow the dividend to rise…but they need to find a way to double it or the shareprice may adjust to make it so.

If the UK market does not like Pru, then it should make its primary listing in HK where there may be better knowledge of its business.

Much more + than AIA….

NBP+45% a slightly better result too.

The book values are USD16.46 (Embedded value) and USD 13.56 (IFRS basis) so trading at a 25-40% discount depending on the metric.

A short term rise is on the cards based on these results and then it will be back to macro economics in Asia to see if there will be a sustained rise…..but we are reaching the bottom of the fall…….the chartists will no doubt confirm at some point.

Https://www.mandg.com/~/media/Files/M/MandG-Plc/documents/investors/2024/mandg-plc-consensus-pdf-february-2024.pdf

Link to a document on the M&G website averaging analyst views….actual results Thursday.