Member Info for Jatw

Innovent, Beigene also down…..sectoral and not very specific to HCM

The publication of Frutiga suggests it is strong science…..the approval in China should be not too long in coming….

in the meantime…time to consider topping up….this approval and the Sovlep first approval could both arrive before the HY results at the end of July….

At this point in time, 50p looks like a decent exit price!

Of course they could pop up on a bidding team.

I read it like Riceboy

Particularly:

Whilst we remain focused on optimizing shareholder value, we are now well-positioned to become a sales and marketing play in a large and open market space

Stargate - the upside has been limited as you suggested…..does your charting suggest anything has changed?

I am expecting decent HY results with an advance to 115-120p.

I think we can all agree that pensions that have not been converted to annuities are a huge pool of assets that are being accumulated tax free.

The current rules are the best they are likely to be, so if you can why not take the money (tax efficiently).

Labour has said it wants to consult about how to improve pensions, I cant see them changing anything prior to next tax year when IHT could easily be imposed….perhaps more substantial changes in 2026 following consultations.

This retrace has been much quicker than I anticipated…..but it is not HCM specific as the other HK Biopharmas I track have also gone backwards (not by as much, but they did not rise as far either).

Definitely time to top up soon.

If the eps gets to 103p, they can afford a much higher dividend and buy backs.

I expect they will indicate a formula for shareholder returns - similar to AIA.

If Starmer follows the TB/GB playbook he will follow the existing plan for a year or two and let the economy grow, then start spending more to justify a second term is needed.

While there is chatter about LTA and TFC, these are difficult things to change - many powerful people want their TFC and increased total pension without penal tax rates. Labour cannot afford to attack its senior doctors / head teachers / senior officials. Allowing the real value of TFC to decline with higher inflation is the current approach. I would expect IHT to apply to pensions (cant really understand why it is exempt (same for business asset exemption for some AIM stocks)) and also some additional minimum drawdown rules to apply. I dont see state pension being clawed back from pensioners, but reducing NI and raising IT does charge pensioners and could be done instead..

Another 18m of investigation…..no wonder the UK has an increasingly poor reputation as a place to do business.

And then the Aus regulators will look at the results…..

BTW they also need to look at the role of insurers in the market…..it is a price spiral higher vets fees drive higher claims which makes consumers think they need more insurance who sign off on higher fees as they just pass the cost on…..equally any pay by instalments for treatment just adds to the costs.

This is only good for lawyers…..Vet companies need to focus on providing good value to their clients.

Amones

As you know I would like to see more regular sales data from HCM. We will get the HY results on 28 July and then they will have an opportunity in late October/November to give us a Q3 update. The next update from Takeda is on 31 July so we wont get any advance insight. I suspect we will get an updated slide already in the corporate presentation showing in market sales which should be similar to Takeda’s reporting and the HCM consolidated revenue which will be royalty and production fees.

Being in the build out phase, my maths suggested we may see $80m of sales in Q2 from Takeda and total in market sales of $130m.

The EU will approve the MAA in July, and I have no idea of the JP timescale. The level of government payments in Europe means that sales may be slower to ramp up as national govts go through their price review / negotiations.

We should put a question to the HY results about whether they will provide a Q3 sales update.

Strong growth in revenue and profits reported by Mitchell & Butlers today.

Shares up 11%.

Strange reaction from YNGA (-3%) and YNGN (+2%).

Like Fatty, I hold YNGN as a preference to YNGA. Yes I dont get a vote on certain matters - but when did individual shareholders last have a meaningful vote anywhere.

There are few companies with more than one listed share class. I buy YNGN for the same dividend, if there is a takeover the same takeover price and the potential for the shareclasses to be combined at some point (as Schroders did a couple of years ago).

Hopefully YNGs will show a similar uplift in revenue and profit in the financial reporting coming in June and beyond.

Fatty (If I may use your shortened moniker), they may be on YNGA.

Anyway my post today relates to M&B who have jumped 11% based on their latest results showing revenue growing ahead of inflation and a significant flow through into profits. Let’s see how YNGs do in a few weeks.

It is a lot of additional free cash flow…..

M&A, pipeline investment buy backs and dividends….the value of the business looks set to rise steadily over the next 5 years….could well be £200by 2030.

Coming up soon as this sinks back to 300.

It will surely be boosted by the future approvals and product launches later in the year as well as the HY results.

I have received an email telling me that &me customers are to be transferred from the &me app to a Moneyfarm app in mid July.

I assume this is due to a lack of volume for the M&G banded version…and will save some costs.

Others have tried and failed so better to get out early and simplify the MNG businesses.

Those with significant debt to roll over (most of the established FTSE).

Those yet to reach profitability whose future growth will be discounted less. (AI / Tech / Bio)

PE type operators.

Smaller companies as will be seen as less risky.

Those who benefit from marginal consumer spending (eg pubs if mortgage rates fall), house builders and asset managers whose asset banks are worth more.

Then there are some that may not benefit much because they are unloved (banks). Old industries/Non ESG (eg tobacco, alcohol)

A case to be made for most areas to do better under lower interest rates - as expected.

BB

Just been through this with SMS - also AIM listed, but not NASDAQ. The main listing country rules will apply.

I expect a scheme document will be produced setting out the timetable and procedure.

Usually you (or your broker) has to tender the shares to accept the offer.

Once the threshhold for the offer to succeed is met settlement can take place. (You can be forced to sell if they get a high % acceptance)

The schedule can be extended if the bidder meets resistance (eg a founder shareholder) or regulatory clearance is needed.

Usually shares are not suspended and can be traded until the deal is settled.

If you think this will go into administration, then the current investors (unless they are also the buyer) will consider the product a failure….and therefore worthless

If you think the product is worth buying out of administration then it is not a failure……

With the regulatory backing and real world data, it seems to me that the product does make a difference and is not likely to be considered a failure, hence the existing investors will keep the business out of administration until a sale at a good price can be achieved. What that is is highly debateable.

The announced durable response is better than the data shown in the corporate presentation.

The product comparators in that presentation are on different metrics so not sure what the relative performance is….Only 1 is approved in China and Sovlep is much superior to that, hence the breakthrough designation and faster review. Web searches revealed that the average approval time in China is 10 months for BTD vs 16 for standard - data was 2019-21 with stated objectives to accelerate further. This is inline with the statements made in the FY results call….time to start looking for an international partner.