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While the last couple of RNS dont appear to have been added to LSE, it was reported on Friday that the European Commission has approved Takeda’s application for Fruq.

Takeda will have six months marketing in the EU…..lets see how they go…

I expect it to go higher ahead of /with the HY results….last year there was a sales update in mid July ahead of HY results in mid August. (110-120)

It was 195p if you go further back into the global financial crisis!

given the changes in the group, I think we need to consider more recent history.

The redemption will save about £20m in interest payments over the course of a full year (so about 10m of central costs this year).

Lab was critical because of potential job losses….will CMA be influenced?

Or will they buy the this is a great deal to get investment in better mobile internet line?

Jaz…the data to watch is their free cash flow….this should rise more strongly than their capital position (because that has the headwind of unwinding capital adjustments). This is what they can use to fund new business, repay debt and then make returns to shareholders via dividend / buy back.

I suspect that the SP will respond when they announce a special dividend or a buy back. There will always be discount, but it is excessively large at the moment.

I dont understand Dicko’s post.

Where the shares are traded is irrelevant….there are no shares on Nasdaq only ADS each of which represents two shares.

The majority of the difference is the 2:1 but there will also be secondary effects of liquidity, deal charges and taxes.

But as we know, the market always marks the shares down on pipeline news…..

It only really moves positively ahead of regulatory approvals hard numbers…and then trades out again..

Strong science,,,,,

China accelerated approvals are coming down in time but are slower than FDA,

Submission in Jan should lead to approval September time although it could be sooner.

There is a lot to like in the trial results:

Early response observed

70% overall level of response with 5 out of 6 responders having a high repeat of response readings.

48% achieved a durable response.

The investor presentation slide compares to some existing treatments, but only one, with an 18% durable response rate is available in China

This is a market leading treatment and should sail through approvals. Partnership discussions can start alongside FDA trial design.

Https://library.ehaweb.org/eha/2024/eha2024-congress/422420/

Link to the EHA paper attached…..or you can go back to the RNS of May 17 announcing data will be presented and follow the link to S316 in the table towards the bottom of the announcement.

The numbers are potentially enormous.

If 20% of the US CKD population get a test every 7 years that is 1m tests pa.

Dr Shi speaks well as CMO…..and is a good spokesperson to speak to the pipeline.

IR guy David is also much improved……they have moved on from Mr Hogg and are not dependent on Dr Su either (who will probably retire next year as breakeven /profitability is achieved.

It is clear that they expect to maintain a strong balance sheet, the IR guy was hinting that this would give them other options in the medium term….(watch that space but dont hold your breath).

Just listened to Mondays meeting.

There is new data on Sovlep being presented today 14th at EHA (? European Haematology Association?). Expect a good RNS with the data on Monday.

They were very positive…..

Should be a game changer…….game on.

STJ is different from MNG / LGEN in that it only provides unit linked insurance funds. As such it charges fees for administration and asset management, but does not take financial risks itself (these are all client risks). As a result it is a capital lite business.

This makes reputation and investment performance critical to its proposition as clients can move their money relatively easily to other providers.

The SJPartners distribute the products and are well rewarded with advice and servicing fees. SJP has the largest tied sales force which makes it a powerful driver of profits. Others rely more on IFAs to distribute their products which is a more competitive model.

BuddhaBob

We have no idea, but there can have been no knockout offer made so far.

I suspect the company is saying the insurance coverage decision will unlock sales and the prospective buyers are more skeptical.

It may take another year before the company can demonstrate sales increasing. The addressable market is millions of diabetics. Just running a few numbers 10% of 1m diabetics would be 100k tests = 95m revenue. Assuming $500 margin gives 50m EBITDA. So it is easy to come up with very large numbers which is why this used to be valued at £1bn……but that is all speculative at the moment.

If both sides want to do a deal in the next few months they will need to have a significant deferred element to bridge the gap/risk.

Fullers issued a trading update earlier today which was quite positive with like for like sales up 4% and commentary about cost pressures easing. MAB was positive a few weeks ago.

It seems trading has continued to improve.

What I dont understand is the relative performance of YNGA v MAB /FST.

MAB and FST are both up 30-40% over the last year, but YNGA is down. It might be that YNG has just avoided a terrible drop - or is there something more at play?

Perhaps those who have followed the sector for longer have a view?

Indications are mow for only one cut this year.

This is positive in the short term for HCMs interest on its cash but has been depressing the SP,

With expectations for reductions nearly as low as they can go we may see the downward pressures ease……

They are pinning a lot on Sovlep as does the Company. They will be able to run a US trial in 2025 but approval will not follow until late 2026 at earliest. A licence deal with a chunky upfront payment in 2025 would be very welcome.

As per a recent posting of mine with some US numbers, I think they are right in the rapid growth of Fruq sales by Takeda which I projected will comfortably exceed expectations.

AZ may get US approval for an Orpathys line in H2 25. Which will unleash sales in 2026.

Depending on how the pipeline approvals and partner discussions go, they could do much better than breakeven in 2025.

I would not be surprised if we see 400p with the HY results in July 25….but these remain volatile.