Member Info for Jatw

Questor says BUY.

Not always reliable, but may draw in more investors.

I would like to use this board for CKHH matters as well as CKI, if that is ok for others.

At the moment there may be a few more holders of CKHH than CKI in the UK, but I expect that to change as CKI becomes better known.

A good find Amones, it sounds like the Japan decision has been made……I suspect it will go to an administrative process and then be announced.

The Takeda website does not reference any decision yet…..and was last updated with a regulatory approval on 7 August……

Takeda should get four months to market Fruz* this year…..any september sales will be in their next sales announcement at the end of October. I have not seem them give geographic breakdown of sales, but there may be some narrative about early EU and JP sales.

A reminder that in patient size JP is similar to US, but typically drug prices are much lower, so it will be interesting to see what the Takeda pricing policy is as it takles sales outside USA.

0013 was mentioned as being close to inclusion in the main HSI when it was north of 50HKD.

Today’s movement was unexpected particularly as London and NY held up well yesterday.

I wonder if there was some disappointment in CKHH/CKA flowing over into HCM today as well as some competitors being mentioned for HSI inclusion (Innovent).

Volatility is nothing new for HCM holders……and better times are ahead.

The noises coming from the press about pension tax relief changes may be a bit alarmist, but what it is doing it making people review their current position and perhaps act if they want to and are able.

Which is work and fees for QLT and the myriad of advisors / wealth managers….this will be a bumper year and who knows what next tax year will bring.

Done alright from 110 hasn’t it SpikeyJ.

All about the pipeline which is huge….the investment deals are providing cover in case they are real game changers and keep AZ at the top table.

V happy to hold and even add at these levels.

Nice to see there is a proper JXN board.

Using this instead of 0JKF now.

LSE now has a feed under the JXN.US ticker…..suggest we move any posts to that indicator

Definitely a positive for Just to continue its rise today……I did fear that the expected results would cause a retreat to 115, but the blockbuster results and confident outlook seem to have exceeded all expectations.

Where will it settle? 130 will be worth a punt as I expect 150 at the FY results.

Well it is certainly more digestible than some……but it all depends on what CKHH wants…it is difficult to work around an uncooperative 38% shareholder.

They do trade their assets, but complete sales are rare…..

To takeover HCM, would possibly require an offer of $5bn, which I would make up of $1bn cash (which is mostly held by the company already) and the rest ($4bn) in new shares in the acquiring company. That is about a 40% premium. If a larger entity needs the HCM cash, only offer a share deal.

A nil premium merger of equals would see the acquirer issue about $3.5bn of new shares (which may be worth $4bn when the cost savings are included in market value.

We are unlikely to see CKHH make an offer for the 62% it does not own (well not at a significant premium)

Bloomberg reporting two analyst price updates

Panmure Liberum 169

RBC 175

Having been a holder for a long time and having bought at various levels from 160-80p, I am feeling that the mono-line insurer will reward my patience and have a good run in the next decade .

I will be very happy to see this hit 200p in 2027.

A really strong set of results….and all on the company balance sheet with no partner reinsurance needed.

The individual business has really bounced back and the DB business is going really well.

I think the market will get more confidence in managements ability to deliver the value they are building…..when that happens this could rise significantly…..or we can continue to add 20-30p to the share price for the next 5 years…..

Some additional capital benefits to come from getting internal model approval for the old partnership business and changes to UK solvency.

I had a holding in a company that was delisted from NASDAQ under the rules that apply to RENX. That company got a rejection from FDA for its sole product, and effectively ran out of money. It also delisted from AIM and was declared nil value.

The RENX circumstances are different here, in that there are investors prepared to keep the company going until they get a sale or generate sufficient revenue to continue.

If there is more exchange pressure to delist, then a fire sale beckons unless the investors are willing to run the company on AIM / OTC basis until they can be readmitted. I dont know the detail of the rules (incl any further appeals) and whether notice has to be given of delisting. The company needs to be transparent in its efforts to maintain an orderly market in its securities.

If they kept their employer /tax subsidised shares from SAYE /SIP /bonus schemes they should be grateful….

An updated analysis of last years sales below to give an idea of what tomorrows HY results will be compared to. (Also posted to ADVFN).

2022, H1 23, H2 23 and FY 2023 sales were

Defined Benefit 2568, 1429, 1570, 2999 (+17%)

Individual annuities 564, 470, 424, 894 (+59%)

Growing at 15% would give an H1 24 sales around

DB 1600 (continued growth but lumpy, so could be +/- 300m

Ind 470 (if recovers the H2 drop)

If over £2bn in total look for comments about margins as to gain sales they may have reduced margin

If lower than 2bn look for what they say about DB lumpiness and H2 pipeline, they will want to demonstrate pricing discipline so we should expect margin improvements on lower sales.

The September quarter sales will be interesting as it will contain August and September sales post Medicare implementation…..they really should be able to show a significant trend of tests completed….as part of the expected standard of care, US doctors should start using it in large numbers, or they risk being sued for acting with insufficient care or providing inappropriate treatment. Being in a litigious environment should spur on sales.

I have no idea what a good number would look like…..just significantly more in August and significantly more in September is what I am looking to see.

Doing some comparisons on yahoo, since listing in HK, HCM, Innovent and Beigene are all down between 40-50%.

Over 2024, 1y and 2 yr comparisons HCM is doing better (it fell earlier faster because of the Surufatinib US fail)……HCM does seem to be further along the path to sustained profitability than the other two which I suspect is driving its relative short term outperformance. It is much smaller than both the comparators which makes it more volatile…..rather than adding more HCM, I have been building up my innovent investment…..

As a shareholder, I am pleased that the CEO has through the decisions of the last few years rebuilt AZ as a leader of the industry.

I hope that many of his top talent of scientists, engineers, etc feel well rewarded for their efforts and the employees have benefited from being part of this magnificent enterprise.

I agree with the direction of travel - more effective treatments and more personalisation…however I also expect this will drive up the cost of medication to the point at which governments and insurers (if they run up against customer pricing resistance) will increasingly decline to cover the full cost. AZ has already experienced NICE refuse the cost of Enhertu for certain patients…..I suggest that is a case to watch to see how the industry and patient groups react, but these commercial barriers are only going to increase.

Results seemed to create a post close rise of nearly 5% to $78.

Dividend is 70c as expected.

Looks like they are preparing for more buy backs by adding 750m to the programme (another 10m shares).

AOP was $5.32/share

$144m returned to SH during the quarter (divi about $50m).