Member Info for Jatw

This Chinese investigation may hang over AZ for a while……it all depends on whether China wants to bring AZ to heal….and what sort of penalties it seeks.

“The divi is up by a paltry 1.5%, and the boast is solvency is up. Anything over 100% is a waste, it is capital not earning income.”

Sean, I disagree, these companies are all about their capital position. The regulator requires the Board to maintain sufficient capital to meet their obligations under a 1in 200 scenario. Their target range for capital is 170-190% for SCR……the assets are all invested (but not in equities)….and will be considered for additional distributions to shareholders…...

The capital position is the state of the company…which is very healthy.

The P&L loss may well be reversed with some interest rate cuts that will raise the value of bonds which also will not be a cause for celebration……as long as the capital position is strong and the company can generate liquidity, the dividends are secure regardless of the P&L result.

Let’s hope the Chinese investigation of some AZ employees does not have consequences for marketing savolitinib.

It is said to centre on the importation of a liver cancer drug not approved in China……it is a question of what China wants to achieve and how it restricts / penalises AZ

The presentation is well worth a listen. Management are giving the impression of a financially strong business that is going to grow AUM profits and dividends.

Slide 19 of the presentation shows how the SCR has changed to hit 210%.

If 190% is acceptable, then M&G has approx £800m of capital to return to SH/debt repayment.

I can see a buy back coming with the FY results.

Perversely the market might think this outcome may lead to a strategic review….if CKHH looks at how the business strategy is working out…..and decides it wants something else..

HK had a mini breakdown but then shrugged it off.

Bit of an error here…….is this the end for Dr Su? As Surufatinib did for Hogg?

Drug development never straightforward and there is an increasing emphasis on OS by regulators.

1pencil - thanks for correcting my memory.

Those 10 undervalued pharma cos included Takeda at no 2 and Astra Zeneca at no 1.

Not sure what they have been smoking.

I think it was the Barings investment. They may well have been behind the ousting of the CEO and the change in strategy to get to a profitable entity in 2025, but I think they have moved on and are no longer on the Board.

The current CEO was behind a lot of the drug discovery work, so I am not surprised by his response to the question about what will they do with their cash pile - raise investment in the pipeline. Incremental expansion is the current Executive’s comfort zone.

I dont see them being on the acquisition trail under the current CEO and CFO. I am sure that China will push for large scale M&A to create national champions…..maybe that will only happen when there are a number of cash positive profitable entities.

The questions about what they will do with their cash will only grow louder…..my guess is we get a dividend and a buy back starting in 2026 with USD50-100m.

EEV book $15.xx, IFRS book $12.xx

Yet the target is to double annual additions to book value……

I have always considered 65% of EEV to be reasonable (in the absence of M&A). So $10 or £8 feels about right at the moment.

If the RNS is not out in the UK when you wake up early, you can always try hkexnews this is the reporting service of the HK Stock Exchange.

Consolidate the shares 10-1 and the $1 problem is solved.

I assume the junior market does not have the minimum market value that was more of a problem as the dilution would have to be extreme to raise the additional cash to go above the threshhold..

Who knows? We are hoping for a longer term uptick, but has the corner been turned on that horrible SP chart?

The HY results are in the HKSE session interval , midday HK on Weds or 5am UK time.

Ra12zack

May i suggest you dissociate your drawdown pension plan with Prudential from your investment in Prudential plc.

The drawdown plan is most likely offered by The Prudential Assurance Company Ltd which is the insurance entity within M&G plc. M&G (MNG) was spun off from Prudential in 2019 and there is no ongoing relationship between the two.

You may well have PruFund investments within your drawdown retirement plan - these are managed by the M&G group and again have nothing to do with Pru (other than they may invest in Pru shares if they think it good value).

You can follow M&G on the MNG ticker

No sign of a retreat more than a week on and XD too. Maybe it will hang around 150 now.

Decent results from both AIA and Ping An.

It seems H1 was more positive in China than first thought for large insurers.

I doubt Pru would have committed to the large buy back without knowing it was playing on an improving pitch. I expect Pru to back up its commitments to shareholders with strong results next week.

One swallow does not make a summer, and on that basis I think it premature to consider the downtrend to be definitively over……I have thought that on many occasions over the last 5 years only to again be disappointed, but it has to break eventually and I hope this time is different.

The FDA has approved a new first line treatment for some NSCLC based on a study where JNJ’s treatment (a two drug combo) had a 30% advantage over Tagrisso.

Not sure what impact this has for Savolitinib sales due to the line and focused patient group…..but it may spur AZ on to advance Savo faster.

HCM is holding a medical call in Chinese to discuss the ITP treatment landscape.

I wonder if they are about to announce approval of Sovlep in China?

The HY results were indicating this year but perhaps near year end.

The next threat is the potential delisting……not sure we know the details of the appeal and the promises made to seek to stay within the rules….one of those props has now fallen away…..

I think there are two tests, one the SP has to be $1 and I think the MCAP has to be $50m. They will be lucky indeed not to avoid delisting (possible if sales pick up markedly)…..and then continuing as OTC / AIM.

Oh and last week Mt Sinai was downgraded so may not be able to fund much new investment even at 10p/share.