Member Info for Jatw

Management is putting in the hard yards of organic growth and is promising an improved H2.

Cash conversion has been decent and reduced debt to 10m.

The next product purchase is now possible….

Let’s see what the market makes of these inline results

A big loss….they need to let it go rather than incur increasing costs

The bottom line IFRS result was down significantly.

However management is positive based on their adjusted earnings/EBITDA view of the world.

Not sure about the increase in dividend - is it needed to show confidence? Or does it show that they are struggling to find new practices to buy at reasonable prices.

I agree a longer term positive, once the CMA review is over.

Market is mildly positive. SP is up slightly this year but was down significantly pre election.

Hopefully the politicians in Jo’burg can hold things together long enough to provide stability and help SA move forward positively…..OMU will be one of the winners if that happens.

Ping An rose 9% in HK today and is up 26% in the last month.

Shows how sentiment can shift and result in large share price movements……

For better or worse, Pru is now tied to Chinese performance.

There is a contact email address on the CKHH website, but I was actually going to go old school and send it by post. I know it will be opened and scanned, but it should get to the right inbox.

Most likely a mixed result with some wins and some losses on both sides…..but certainly not an outright win for DIA.

The approval of Fruq in Japan was expected, but it is good to have it confirmed.

I am not sure what the marketing dynamics are in Japan, but we should expect Takeda to be able to drive good take up in a patient population that is as large as the US. The pricing will not be as strong outside the US but the royalties will flow to HCM at around 15% plus some manufacturing charges.

We will hear from Takeda on 30 October about their Jul-Sep sales, there should be continued growth in the US as more patients will be on treatment, with some limited EU sales.

I expect US sales will start to level out in the next 2-3 quarters and we should be seeing the full run rate across US / EU and JP in H1 26.

I wonder if we will get a sales update from HCM this quarter? If not AZ will provide Savo sales on 9 November (although there is no driver of change so we know what to expect).

The article is found on the front page of the company website.

It is possible that this is only reporting on part of the study, but there does not appear to be any Overall Survival analysis, it is all objective response rates……unless this has been discussed with the regulator, this may not meet the criteria to extend to 1L treatment - which would be another fail (any other views welcome - or we just wait to hear the result - package was submitted in March so a decision sometime Apr-Oct 25).

Happy to collaborate and will post the guts of my letter(s) on here for you to comment on, but I think it would be best to send separate letters. I also think similar points should be made to the new Chairman of HCM - Dan Eldar. He needs to look at the governance and whether Dr Su should hold all the roles he does - it cant really be best practice to have the CEO responsible directly for the R&D programme.

Elgar HCM topics:

Management structure and succession plans

Balance sheet management, use of the surplus capital with free cashflow from operations due to start in 2026.

R&D strategy / product development

In-licensing

CKHH topics

Shareholder value

Strategy oversight

M&A (Exit strategy)

I think it is time to write to Mr Li at CKHH and ask if he is satisfied about the product R&D and commercialisation at HCM and whether enough is being done to generate shareholder value.

I will point out the regular late stage failures (Suru, Amdiz and Fruq GC) and having focused their R&D spend to get to breakeven are now thinking about expanding R&D spending to soak up the $500m excess capital….would he like to consider asking for better use of the balance sheet next year…..

They are off the main Nasdaq board……they transferred to a junior board per an earlier RNS (about 2 months ago).

The HY results are due on 30 September. There may be some reference on Jul/Aug trading, but I would expect it to be limited to a “trading in line with management expectations”.

The HY trading update suggested some margin expansion and sales loaded to the second half (I suppose some of their lines are somewhat seasonal, but the profitable cancer related therapies depend on diagnosis and should face regular rather than seasonal demand, so maybe management should start to see a relative lessening in seasonal orders..

I do not rate SWS…..I have seen too many articles on different companies where they seem to cut and paste the company name. They have a headline built on a ratio of one number but they have not factored any context in…..eg they would not mention M&A or regulatory change.

Fool seems slightly more informed but they have a habit of hedging their bets and commenting from the sidelines……I guess that maximises agreement (confirmation bias) with their readers.

My best advice is to read their accounts and their competitors the rivals will give you ideas about similarities and differences……if you cant decide on a specific share then buy an index fund.

The new 400m 10.5 yr bond is on slightly cheaper terms than the bonds that it will retire, it will save around £500k interest and extends the funding of the business. It also raises the quality by replacing tier 3 capital with tier 2.

Overall a small positive step.

Yes - HK is pegged to the USD, but the Yuan/Renminbi is not….hopefully the RMB rises against both, it will help comparatives in USD earnings….EUR may rise against USD, but as there are minimal EU sales at present we wont notice any effect until end 2025 or even 2026 in the comparative results.

Takeda report in JPY and the Yen has risen strongly so their results may look weaker at the end of October, but HCM will receive their royalties on USD sales, so will cancel out any exchange rate effect.

I feel we should be getting the JP approval of Fruq…very soon,

The SP does not really suggest this deal is dead.

There is a lot of could and maybe about the CMAs position…..and as it is the market study, it does not reflect the deal announced to sell some spectrum that was conditional on the deal going ahead.

Re the 11bn investment- they should tie that to network performance not cash spent. OFCOM has historically not been effective at enforcing coverage and network quality issues (like OFWAT on sewerage discharges). The remedies may already exist and just need better enforcement!

As for the VNOs Vod/3 wil need to give some guarantees on access, but they need to be wary of giving too much away (see Iliad in Italy - where they have taken the PAYG market from Wind/Tre - these competitors will be shouting at the CMA).

LGEN commenting on H1 - BPA market was down now expecting 40bn+ rather than exceeding the 49bn transferred in 2023.

MNG suggesting clients want to keep a share of the risk and will be doing a deal with some reinsured back to a captive owned by the sponsoring employer (only really works for the larger schemes). I expect Just to continue to dominate the smaller value transactions but it may struggle to add larger deals at decent margin and currently low capital strain,

The rabbit is so 2023…..its the Dragon now.

5 Sep. The FY results are better than expected although still dont cover the dividend.

The AUM trajectory is still pretty poor, but the US interest rate cycle is moving lower which should boost flows into EMs…and to ASHMs benefit.