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Beginning to doubt there is going to be one…..nevertheless the SP has moved up above 110, which I expect will be the middle/lower end of a new range until the FY results next March.

Given where we are today (310-315) it is looking possible for the sp to test 350 if the Takeda sales are strong.

Takeda results are on the same day as HCM, but are likely to be published before HCMs results.

A fillip to sentiment….and China property market.

Not sure there are any significant real world effects for companies like HCM.

Cash positive

USD /HKD financial reporting

Sales of HCM products are hardly discretionary spending (given the alternative).

Drug pricing around the world:

Google reports US prices are 1.5-2 x EU, and 6x Japanese prices on average.

If Takeda can sell $300m in the US and get the same market penetration in EU/JPN that would translate to $450m (EU) and $50m (JP) and about $100m royalty payment to HCM…..plenty of assumptions in there, about pricing and adoption but is in the right order of magnitude.

I agree the macros seem stable at the moment, but not sure they have really improved.

I think it is the 10yr US interest rate that we need to think about rather than the Fed rate….the 10yr is down on its highs but is still about 50bps up on the year. With sticky inflation and both the Reps and Dems likely to run high deficits the long term rate may well stay higher for longer.

The US/China relations have been patched up, but both Biden and Trump have new tariffs to hand so could deteriorate and there are still rumblings about auditing standards in HK/China.

Global partnerships and judicious planning of the supply chain should keep HCM out of the direct line of sight for the more hawkish regulators.

And the Ukraine/Russia war is not coming to a close.

So overall I would say a bit more stable because we have reached a new normal…but not much real progress and the prospect of a potentially disruptive US presidential election to come.

Anyway, I think the only things that matter to HCM this year are regulatory approvals to permit expansion of own sales in 25 and the progress Takeda makes in US, EU and JPN.

SP still going strong and consolidating in the low $80s.

Not buying many more at these levels, but not selling either.

Hellyeah, last year there was a sales update in mid July….I anticipate a similar announcement this week, it could as early as tomorrow.

My expectation is this will pop on the sales numbers, then retreat before advancing again with the results.

Happy to be in profit after many years of being in a loss position….looking forward to steady increases for medium term.

As there is no news today, I expect this is traders positioning themselves for the sales update which could come any day now.

Chambers - you are fortunate. Should we also assume you max your ISA and Pension contributions?

If you are comfortable with the level of risk get to an IFA asap.

Realise the gains at 20% tax and invest in VCTs where you can get 30% income tax relief (do this with some of your gains). Or make additional pension contributions if you can for a 45% tax rebate.

If CGT and Income tax rate are equalised then apart from any residual nil rate bands there will be no benefit to taking large dividends as capital by selling cum-div and buying x-div. We will just need to make our investment choices and pay the tax…..of course if you can accumulate when you retire you would be able to realise the gains and potentially have them taxed at lower rates rather than draw the pension…..but that may be many years away and many changes in tax policy.

A bit worse than expected…..it seems the buy Nvidia crew and Fed reticence to cut interest rates continues to suck investment into US from emerging markets.

The tide continues to run strongly against ASHM.

Time for Mr Combes to consider a sale and retire?

GS is reviewing options for various businesses in CKHH and seems to be quite leaky with stories about options for the three telecoms businesses in Europe and DKInfrastructure seeking a second listing perhaps in London (and presumably with CKHH reducing its stake to provide liquidity).

They will get to HCM eventually,,,,where I expect they will push for M&A in China and we may see how CKHH feels about going it alone.

It is 10 years since the CK group of companies was last substantially reorganised, Its diversified conglomerate structure is out of fashion and I would not be surprised to see it broken down into more discrete elements.

Just a reminder of the maths…..the quarterly sales will continue to develop towards a steady state - where new prescriptions are offset by patients discontinuing treatment.

I dont expect the steady state has been reached yet….but we may get an indication as to whether that is being approached….

A largely growing book with low discontinuation will yield $75-80m

Steady state would show as zero growth and a further $50m anything above this level will have the analysts adding to their sales guesstimates.

The company:

Prioritised the US market

Is yet to make meaningful sales

Needs more funding.

So a European institution is willing to work with Renx. That in istself is not surprising…but they are some time from generating any revenue from Europe.

It may add an additional spice to the sale negotiations…..but would have been better if Steno had invested.

Everything suggests a strong buy, with some overbought indicators.

I expect the sales update and then the HY results to be postive so am expecting a move to 110-120 soon.

The SP has been bumping up against 107/108 and not making progress, but the following retreats are getting shallower.

Chartists - what does this indicate?

The SP could do with some approvals coming through in China and strong sales by Takeda.

The NMPA has already had the Frutiga application for 15months and the ESLIM-01 for 6 months. The company has guided to later in the year and perhaps early next year for ESLIM-01, I would like to think NMPA can get these done during Q3 (18 and 9m respectively).

European operations of Hutchison said to be under review -

Two thoughts on this:

1. Ups the pressure on CMA - would Hutchison walk away leaving a weak fourth network operator to whither away?

2. Opportunities for further consolidation across Italy, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Ireland (and UK if the VOD deal does not progress).

The H3G investment has been a burden for CKHH which operates as an investment holding company….they may look to divest significant % across Europe and maybe a clean exit from this business.

The company did give some sales values of current ITP treatments (there are other indications included, but these ran to $5bn+).

Global development would follow a rough timetable:

Phase 1 complete 2024

Agreed design of reg study mid 25 (and confirm partner)

Complete registration end 26, NDA submission mid 27, approval mid 28.

Dr Su said ITP was getting more crowded, but he believes HCM is ahead in China and has a strong durable response. Pts survive for a long time under treatment, so I can see the argument that Sovlep will be tried by many pts and used by 50% for some time until they need to try another treatment. The Cavendish analyst asked about a recent Takeda ITP announcement (not a SYK inhibitor), and Dr Shi questioned the high number of discontinued pts. They did not seem particularly concerned about new competitor products and may gain a useful head start in China.

Well it was a couple of hours of mainly technical information. The deep dives and explanation of the trial results and design was interesting, but as you will see from the Q&A part most of the questions were about timing of approvals / ability to partner.

Some takeaways -

Amdiz - permanently on hold…it seems the effort of doing a randomised trial makes the payback less attractive (begs the question of why were they doing it in the first place if the economics were so marginal that an additional and not unreasonable spend pushed it so far down the list).

Suru - global development may be back on the agenda if the PDAC trial is effective

Sovlep - seen as attractive asset for global partnering - but probably not until they have done the dose escalation - that should complete this year. The China approval could take a full year and will not be in time for NRDL discussions - probably not a bad thing as they need to build the haematology team and generate the contacts within the system.

Roll on the HY results……the Takeda Quarterly sales are published on the same day. Hopefully they have continued to expand the book and have not started to see a steady state emerging.

JL has done a good job for investors….but the days of star fund managers are numbered as there is so much process now.

The Bond Vigilantes will be needed come October - it is quite a good blog to read.