Member Info for Jatw

3 large US PE groups are said by the FT to be weighing bids for Pensions Insurance Company - which is already owned by PE/Sovereign Wealth Funds.

While it will be easier for an off market deal to be struck, it will provide a benchmark valuation…and the disappointed bidders (unless they go into a consotium) may take a look at Just….lets see what transpires….

On today’s NRFL update, they say mCRC has about 10% more cases in china than gastric…..sp the opportunity for GC will depend on the subset Elunate targets….and a similar size to CRC.

the trial enrolment is for a 2025 NDA submission.,,,data likely early 2025, 65k Chinese patients pa,

The innovent update indicated that new treatments need to be added to NRDL…but presumable this is quicker for a drug already on the list

For Gastric cancer incidence See p19 of the corporate presentation…..it is the 5th most common cancer 1.09m new cases globally and 478k in china, 140k in Japan (they dont suggest numbers outside Asia which is 60% of cases)….that will be divided into the various drivers of the disease….but I would say these numbers suggest a bigger opportunity than mCRC overall and one that Takeda is likely to take forward..

In the US market, JXN is seen as a low market cap and would be a bite sized acquisition……yet in the UK it would be knocking on the door of the FTSE100.

If it goes back to $40 I will buy some more…..otherwise just holding.

It really does seem that Pru was screwed by the US regulators when they could not extract the $1bn they expected to in capital…..and which is now being drip fed back to US shareholders.

There are now about 80m shares in issue. On the float it was near 100m.

The value of the business has not changed as much as the share price would suggest….but we do own quite a bit more of it than we did.

There must be a practical limit to buy back activity….unless it becomes an easy trade…buy in the market sell to the BB programme at a nearly guaranteed premium,

And on the dividend policy….I would only expect them to raise the dividend annually, so the declaration in Feb/Mar is the one to watch.

SIDI….if the chartists are to be believed it will be about 2 months to get to 220….it is about 2 months since 200 and 1 month since 205…..so the short term trend is there.

Have not seen any dates for Europe and Japan…..they could be a standard year from submission….US had given priority review.

The next Fruq news may well be approval of the Gastric Cancer sNDA, if that is a year it should be April 24.

I assume this second indication gets immediate benefit from the NRDL already applying to Elunate which will certainly assist with take up.

I got all excited when I read they were divesting some of their non-pharma business…..thought it might be the $1bn value release some attribute to the JVs…but that was not to be.

A mere $5m which is only a few days expenses.

Another takeover of a £1bn entity on the UK markets….it it sad in some ways, but a decent price has been paid.

IMO This has been a deal waiting to happen once the Directors realised the market did not really understand them….this asset rich but cash hungry company needs feeding so the PE guys will be able to issue lots of private credit backed by the installed asset base to their other funds.

This is going to rise slowly towards the deal price….now only 1% off. Think I will sell, but what to buy…..I can get 250 CVSG for each 100 DPH, still veterinary and currently suppressed by CMA enquiry, or just stick it in a Tech fund?

What are others doing?

If that pricing value proves to hold,HCM will receive as a royalty more than 2x the revenue per customer in US as in China..and it is all profit ex-china,

It is somewhat surprising there is not a huge black market in the US…

Obv the HKD should be 30, not 60 - that was the peak value immediately after the HK equity raise - which with the benefit of hindsight has proven to be the right size.

Important statements from Mr To recently that no further funding is needed - the only dilution is from executive and employee share schemes.

It will be interesting to find out in 2026 what their plans for excess capital are. Will they commence dividend payments? Do buy backs? Or invest in the business (like their plans for a new HK research base - or spend more on the pipeline)……

20USD/60HKD/320p take your pick

Still only half the HK listing price…….and 66% of the 30USD PE funded the company at.

Many investors are significantly underwater.

Why do we need a squeegee? When a hammer is what is needed.

On 22 April 2009, the then Chancellor Alistair Darling announced in the 2009 Budget statement that starting in April 2010, those with annual incomes over £100,000 would see their Personal allowance reduced by £1 for every £2 until it reduced to zero.

One of many poor decisions, a politically driven tax change that acts as a serious disincentive to earn more….

Strange that Tory chancellors have not had the guts to change this arbitrary rule…..which now catches more people every year. I would have just started the 50p tax band at 100k….much fairer and less of a disincentive.

Why would it move when it is simply in line with expectations..ie no nasty surprises.

The SP was cratered by the CMA and probably the economic outlook which again seems to be in line with expectations or even a bit ahead.

The market often seems to over react to CMA reviews which turn out to have limited impact…..my guess is that this will rise 20% when the CMA result is known…..IMO there are likely to be increase price disclosures to customers and some undertakings not to load prices of on-premises sales of medicines, there should be greater clarity about the level of local competition that has to be maintained…..I would bet that most people use the nearest Vet and few choose based on price. It is private healthcare after all and the vets can charge more or less what they want to.

A bit more admin, a few forced disposals……not much to get too excited about…and to compensate - then divert some growth investment where it has more effect (eg Australia).

Anyone care to put the downside case?

Https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3242840/ck-hutchison-backed-hutchmed-eyes-global-expansion-after-fda-approval-novel-cancer-drug

CKH / Hutchmed getting some press coverage in HK

GS starting at 240……plus nearly 20p in dividends….these just need to hold their value to be a good investment.

A buy around these levels for me.

Detailed Sovlep results publication and submission of NDA in China.

Amdiz high level result of registration study.

First sales of Fruq in USA? Could easily happen, Takeda was going to launch asap.

Takeda to test Fruq in GC in Japan/S Korea? Seems a logical approach given China sNDA is in.

EMA approval for Fruq? Have not seen a date for this, I assume it is H1 2024.

Now 136 (was 125)……actually still only early 80s. So 70% upside per Barclays.

Maybe the analyst is named

Asif Pigscanfly

This external pot for life will disadvantage the big AE players and will land individuals with higher charges - large corporate schemes are low margin business only viable because of AE driving increasing volumes. It sounds like a bonus for wealth managers like HL, AJB, II who can do D2C at scale. It will be an admin nightmare for larger companies.

Quite surprised by the HK rise this morning…..maybe that is what happens when the US is on holiday….RISK ON.

There is an article in SCMP today (it appeared in my Apple News) saying that there are 10000 pharma cos in China reasearching new treatments…..and suggesting some consolidation is needed.

It was mostly citing comments from Beigene.

https://apple.news/ApctT2EozTm2ElgVaCV7vtg

It was in the top stories from SCMP but I cant find it on the SCMP website