Member Info for Jatw

Mark- it is the record date (the day before XD) that determines entitlement to a dividend. The trading price on XD date will be reduced by the dividend.

If you hold in a tax efficient wrapper there is little effect caused by buying ./ selling around the ex-div date, but in a General Investment Account you are liable for capital gains on the trading profit / loss AND income tax on the dividend. Know the rates that apply to you…..income tax payers at 40/45% may want to sell before the dividend record date to create a capital gains tax liability at (0 if within the annual zero rate band or 20%) rather than income tax at the higher rate.

There is no rule about the time between results and the record date / ex-div date, you need to look at each share and trade with your tax positions in mind.

I am not a chartist…..but there does seem to be some generally upward momentum in the 3m shareprice.

Very strange….some sort of glitch….there is no equivalent movement on NASDAQ, maybe these trades will be unwound as errors….but I dont expect they will influence Monday’s prices in HK.

What is expected in the results?

An improved capital position relative to H1 22 (prob below YE because the large dividend payment)

Improved profitability due to IFRS changes and accelerated recognition of PruFund profits..

Improved investment performance and fund flows, but marginal AUM growth

Wealth AUM flat/lower (large platform user is now owned by Aviva, so expecting large transfers away).

Look to PHNX on Monday for clues to the market reaction.

It is approaching its recent peaks…..doing much better than its peers over the last 6m….for no particular reason…..may be heading for a correction on results.

Clearly not expecting huge gains in the short term……just needed some cash.

It’s t’other way round…..quilter client funds own 5% of the em trust.

The trouble for Wealth Managers is that they have tended to look at STJ as something of a role model….

Cruises as incentives…..

High charges…..

Many of the FCA crackdowns could be directly aimed at them as bad for treating customers fairly / lack of duty of care……

STJ will need to change and deliver much better value for money….it will be better for customers but bad for shareholders until the turnaround has been achieved.

Fitzpatrick has his work cut out to turn this around

So with some distance now from the defenestration of Mr Hogg, we tend to think it was the right decision?

A different strategy and a more flexible Board being the result?

I am not sure why different valuations should apply, butI offer a couple of thoughts related to the ownership structure and where shares are held.

HCM has a 38% block owned by CKHH…it was much higher, but nothing can happen to HCM without CKHH say so….this works both ways…in theory they can stand behind the company should it ever be in difficulty, but it can be a drag if they are passive and not pushing the business hard enough.

I don’t think Innovent / Beigene have such a single dominant shareholder (but I am happy to be corrected)….the free float is not that great once the various long term PE holdings are discounted so it may not qualify for indices or meet some investors criteria.

HCM does not have a mainland listing…..with large US and UK registered shareholdings and so has been more affected by geo politics?…

Finally, I think HCM pursued its own global ambitions for too long. As a result it spent too much on global costs and in-licensing to build China sales has lagged.

Growth company metrics are all over the place because each company is at different stages of development……as they mature the metrics are likely to converge with other China bios and western operators…in the meantime there will be disparities that may be investment opportunities.

I recognise my words….quite why Innovent needs new funding escapes me but I doubt they have been as prudent as HCM in trimming their R&D costs and they did not get a large wedge from their partner. Sanofi had an option to buy such a tranche of shares and maybe they have declined the opportunity.

Anyway, similar trajectories beckon and I remain positive on both…still no idea why the market was up yesterday.

HCM held onto much of yesterdays gains…but Innovent dropped a $300m share placing on the market at 8% discount and fell 12% at worst before recovering a little.

Good to note that new funding is available in HK……not that HCM should need it given the plans to break even consistently from 2025 onwards….and the options it has for its JV businesses.

Could not discern a reason for today’s gains which were there on opening in HK.

something positive at G20? But not generally across the HK market so maybe some china bio pharma policy change?

CKHH is now very much an income share seeking stable returns…..so it needs to maintain liquidity and receive cash from its subsidiaries…..at the moment it is focusing on releasing capital from its mobile telephone businesses…..if the Vodafone/3 merger goes ahead next year then it will release significant funds and not draw on capital…..there is then an option for Vod to buy out CKHHs share as long as the value has increased by 10%……if that deal is blocked then CKHH ,may need to reconsider its options….one of which is to realise value from Hutchmed.. IMO that would be via consolidation…..they would book a large gain and have a smaller stake in a larger business which they could then sell down with less scrutiny….that is what they did selling Orange to Mannesmann ending up with a 5% Vodafone stake.

Funding is needed, and it is not a game of chicken. The only question is how much they need before commercial revenues remove the need for more funding….it seems the product is good it is a bit of a mystery why it is not being used more by clinicians (maybe they have their own spreadsheets?) and would rather believe their own infallibility than use an external test.

There will be a lot more paperwork and warnings (as on a call centre script) that will suck the life out of being a vet / support staff and ruin the experience of going to the vet (when there is little wrong).

Routine items should be purchasable OTC which will encourage price competition - but may flood the market with fake product…..no good is likely to come from this review and the additional bureaucracy may well end up increasing fees.

Vets dont get paid as much as NHS doctors.

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No where near as bad at the bottom line as the FUM would lead one to expect.

Can it make a recovery in 23/24?

Must admit, I bought in the China reopening bounce so now 25% down…..we will have to search the accounts for reference to what they have done re Evergrande debt they hold…..Evergrande equity is a wild ride at present, but it may survive in which case the debt will also recover somewhat.

Wonder what the read across from today’s deal with KKR taking a stake in Zenobe.

Zenobe expects to be operating 1gw of grid scale batteries shortly. (Not all they do)

SMS is after all a metering company with a nascent battery operation.

The results are tomorrow, but will be meaningless as this edges towards the deal completion. Most deals allow any divi to be deducted from the offer price, so i expect they will not declare a dividend….they may give some further detail on the expected timing….

Now only a couple of percent below the offer price…while that is a safe return it may take 6 months which may not be attractive for some…..definitely entering the time to sell zone.

AAS,

Do You mean you expect the results are going to be better than expected?

Or are you taking advantage of idiots that buy for the dividend only to see the SP fall by the same amount?

We know roughly what the dividend will be (6.7 p if it is half the second interim).

They wont cut it and hit the SP…..and they wont increase it as it is already generous.