Member Info for Jatw

BBD - think you have cited an incorrect change for MNG….it was an increase in AOP but from £529 to £552, so only +£23m.

It all depends on how much profit is booked on new business under the old method….

MNG had little front end loaded profit and had back loaded profit recognition on WP /PruFund business. The WP /Prufund business is now smoothed over the expected life of the policies.

The Pru business with high expenses on regular premium business would have recognised quite a lot of profit up front….if there is good news from the change in accounting it is that the CSM is known and may be more trusted as a measure of value than embedded value…..

I think we may see analysts valuing at a % of CSM + multiple earnings of non-insurance (wealth/asset management) businesses…..

Not a big player…..a target for consolidation eventually…

The indexed income is a useful factor….however it does depend on containing the cost base.

Seems to have gathered some positive momentum, let’s hope it is just not a lot of traders ready to sell on the results…..which I am sure will be presented as strong implementation of the revised strategy.

1pencil - China govt stimulus is good generally, but how much will it be of benefit to HCM and its ilk…..oncology treatments are still expensive for patients and their families even after NRDL discounts…..it seems to me if patients can afford it they are the ultimate case of inelastic demand.

Life insurance deals for cash have not happened anyway near a full embedded value…..

All share mergers are more feasible as the capital is not leaving the market and it is arguable that the paper is overvalued too…on both sides of a merger.

I would think 120p for cash and 150p in paper would get a deal done…..but neither may appeal to the Board or management…..

No bid and the price will be 50% of book value….but that should increase significantly in the next 5 years….as long as the margins on annuities can match the big players and be sustained.

I would think it too early for Carlyle to be influencing strategy - and she is one of a number of Board members - so it is difficult for them to have much direct influence….the strategy has been in place for a while now……what they have yet to do is to find global development partners for drugs proven in China (if we ignore AZ orpathys as a first attempt nearly a decade on no more have been done), Takeda only took on Elunate once the MRCT was completed. So I would like to see Sulanda, Amdiz and Sov get global development partners soon…

The Arab world is sufficiently wealthy to be able to afford mass regular testing…..however the majority of the fee will stick with the local distributor…..still not to be sniffed at….

The UK will be up the list for a combination of obesity and ability to pay but govt funding less likely unless it pays for itself….

The economic theory is that a share is worth the future value of its dividends discounted to today’s price…..and hence SPs generally move in the opposite direction to interest rates.

And is why MNG needs to grow its earnings to increase its share price.

I would argue the relationship has broken down because of the historically low interest rate environment we seem to need to survive these days…..recent movements in government bonds have shown these are anything but risk free….a controversial premise under which govts have persuaded pension schemes to ditch equity and favour (their) bonds….it seems we may be heading towards a historically more normal level of interest rates and lower asset prices as a result….

Trading at roughly equity + CSM - debt…which is insurance value…..

Get the Asset Manager and Wealth annual profits for free!

Label expansion for Elunate looking positive,,,,,

BTD as a 2l treatment with study to complete early 2024….should build revenue in 2025…..will Takeda pursue globally?

What might we see?

Continued growth of in market (china) sales…I suspect Elunate is going to hit a ceiling as it already has 44% market share….but Orpathys and Sulanda should show good growth….Elunate will grow next year with the sNDA hopefully leading to a launch and globally with Takeda.

Will we see a reduction in R&D spend? Last year was said to be peak spend…but i doubt there will be much fall this year (it is fully funded by the $400m paid by Takeda).

The loss run rate should be down with increased income and slightly reduced spending..

In terms of pipeline, there is not too much more than is already in their plan (Sov and Amdiz NDA this year). I doubt anyone is expecting Japan to accept Sulanda without further work….I hope they can find a global partner for it before too long….and if they cant then start the multi- regional study needed to launch.

The recent LGEN IFRS17 update stated that 10bn of BPA business would generate 800-900m of CSM (and risk adjustment).

That is the target for just to aim for….so £150-180m of future profits to be added in H1

There is undoubtedly a lot of volume passing into Just…..the only question must be about margins and capacity. The market is said to be capacity constrained which in classic economics should allow super/excess profits to be made.

Two questions will be answered with the HY results:

What increase in CSM is derived from these large sales?

What level of capital strain from the sales can the company sustain?

IMO this is going to go through a boom period….and the SP should follow the CSM up.

The IFRS17 update suggested the CSM would double if they meet their 15% growth in underlying profit target…..that means a NAV of 350p and a share price closer to 250p maintaining a substantial discount……surely due a re-rating soon.

Another BPA for 90m announced on twitter….a regular occurrence.

Only a small portion redeemed, but they get $4m of shares for $1m of debt……there is a lot of dilution out there coming our way….and that is before any equity raise…..

What can we expect:

Continued growth in the acquired brand volumes and sales

Progress in China via Samarkand following market restrictions easing…..

We need to strip out inflationary growth and look for news on margins.

News on cash flows and debt balances will also be informative as net interest cost will be significantly increasing and affect Profit before tax.

Mixed bag…..improving performance in the quarter but outflows continue to be stronger.

You might think that better performance would change the flows eventually.

Cant read the article, but the introductory headline and teaser indicate Lex is positive on Just.

It is premium content, would someone be able to summarise?

And despite todays 5% bump, it is trading well below 50% of its assets including expected future profits……I can understand not getting full credit as they are in the future, but the gap is too wide…..even 65% would be 120p…not too much to ask is it?

MNG is well known as a Fixed Income asset manager…..it may gain customer inflows….however existing assets will have declined as interest rates have risen……reputationally MNG may do well, but AUM face headwinds.