Member Info for Jatw

Even better than anticipated.

Good margin on the new business written, low capital consumption, improved solvency ratio.

Should generate some positive broker commentary….and hopefully some meaningful increase in the SP.

I tend to agree this will benefit newer innovative players in the medium term…..although it does depend how endemic it is within the hospital sector in China - they could be more vulnerable to “pay to play” arrangements but they should be prepared to whistleblow against their established competitors as they have less to lose.

We perhaps should not be I surprised by the knee jerk reaction of the markets…..although AZ as the biggest non Chinese pharma did not react nearly as much…..I wonder if this is good old procurement fraud….on PPE, general supplies etc rather than specialist drugs and with NRDL inclusion maybe the risk is lowered too?

FWIW i have recently purchase some Innovent stock ahead of their results next week….as well as oncology they also seem to be making progress with lifestyle related drugs (Diabetes, obesity etc) which seems to be a favoured subsector at the moment.

15th is what it has said in their financial calendar for a while.

Key figure is what Is added to the CSM (future profits) and the % of annuity sales that represents….LGEN said 8-9%. Less than 6% would be problematic for me if their margins are much worse than the bigger players.

And of little relevance to MNG shareholders as it will undoubtedly be client funds that hold the shares…MNG gets to vote on the deal which is why others need to know its holding. Cant create a false market by saying one thing and doing another.

The 4% fall in HK overnight was replicated in other HK bio pharma companies and not HCM specific…..annoying but no reason to think this will not continue upwards in calmer markets.

Sovlep news seems to be the next pipeline news…..if I recall correctly ITP has a million new cases in china every year….so it is a large target market…..it seemed from the Q&A that HCM is going to progress it in the USA before finding a partner…..

Selling the JV would simplify the group…..i got the impression a sale was a kite flying exercise to say we dont need a capital raise (under CH)……now it is clear they dont need the money…it is a useful reminder of its value……davey has been touting a value of around $1bn but i dont know the basis for that……certainly 100s of $m. Trinity Delta values “other ventures” at $951m in is sum of the parts valuation.

NASDAQ going well +9% at 19:45 BST an hour and a quarter left in todays session…with volume heading for 2x recent average…

HK to catch up and take it on overnight?

I agree 1Pencil, always good to hear from holders who post infrequently.

I would agree with buying shares for treasury, but I think a larger ($50-100m?) buy back, could send the wrong message that they dont have enough future profitable prospects to invest in).

Not sure they have distributable profits for a dividend at the moment given accumulated losses - but they should look to start shareholder returns of 1-2% when they can (currently $25-50m), I am not expecting this until interims in 2026.

Re HK there was no rush for the exit today…..positively received with decent volume…I anticipate some positive analyst updates are on their way…..

I can see why the traders who have run the price up in the last week have banked their profits…plenty of other results to come soon…

There is a lot of detail to absorb, but it seems to me that they have created a fundamental issue in that global sales are nothing without a partner…and if they keep trying to create an auction for each product they will end up dealing with alot of different companies and some unsold products…..maybe they have to strike a strategic partnership so there is a route to market for all products.

One comment from Weiguo interested me….he said the haemoncology landscape was very different to 2-3 years ago….indicating to me that some of the innovative products are no longer thought to be a new standard of care…..my wishful thinking but there could be a deal with a local competitor and a global player to pool their portfolios in this area, save a lot of cost and benefit patients faster.

That will make analysts take note.

And probably a profit for the full year…

Interestingly there must be a lot of obligations for them to string out the recognition of the Takeda $400m with only 65% to be recognised this year.

Agricore - your numbers may turn out to be correct….

But the tone from management is overly cautious….maybe the order book is 30% higher but that might because customers are placing orders for delivery in 2024/25 that they can still amend. Mgmt did not say the orders for delivery in H2 are up 30%.

if they raised forecasts that would signal much more than the mealy mouthed cautiously optimistic that they will be in line with expectations….that would also expose themselves career wise….

If you are right there will be a big beat on the FY results and the in-house brokers should be forecasting that after the HY results.

Not as positive as they might have us believe with the headline 24% revenue growth number. The proforma sales growth is 10% - does little more than match general inflation? Margins in what matters here are we have to wait until end September to see the cost side of the equation.

VLG will be squeezed hard by the likes of tesco, Superdrug, etc

Mgmt is only cautious in saying they are to meet expectations…..(the SP shows how low these expectations are), they need to beat expectations to get the rerating to 60p or more.

DF, if you look hard there will always be something not going quite according to plan- I think Orpathys sales this half will be the disappointment.

Other than that the strategy will be said to be delivering early results (Takeda partnership), Elunate development is going well with the sNDA for GC in China and BTD for it plus PD1 in EMC.

They will repeat expectations for pipeline success in H2 and 2024….jam tomorrow.

And continue to review options for the non-oncology businesses (but no action)

Funding position still strong….

When the SP does start to reflect the future prospects of the company….it will move rapidly to the next level which is why I choose to stay invested.

AZ results today include (AZ sales) of $22m in H1, $9m/$13m Q1/Q2 (NRDL).

Oncology +22% rare diseases +12%…..eps consistent Q1 /Q2 and looking at over $8 for the full year. SP is at recent lows as a multiple of earnings.

Despite the unusually large reaction to the recent enhertu trial news this is looking like good value.

Today STJ disappointed and fell 16%.

JUP gave a special dividend and rose 6% (12% at best)

MNG likely to be affected by other insurance/asset management group results before they get to the results on 20 Sept. Atleast we will be prepared….

H1 22 $181m

H2 22 $206m

Total of $387m

The Fresco2 costs will not be incurred in 2023, with 2022 said to have been a peak year we can assume some reduction will happen…but the China research base is unchanged/even expanded, it is the prioritisation of the pipeline that will bear down on 2023 cost….TBH I am not expecting much in the way of absolute reduction…

Plenty of early buy activity today…..ahead of a positive update?

Market likes todays update…..continued UK investments…hopefully no CMA objections in these as the criteria are known….and expansion into Australia..

As long as they keep expensive debt and costs under control this should continue to grow.

Oops….mr market does not like the HY results..