Member Info for Jatw

If you have access to HK, you should be able to buy in multiples of 500, and fulfil orders much higher than 3000 in one go as they have a daily volume average of 2.5m compared to 100k on AIM.

Once you have converted £ to HK$ you can often keep a balance in HK$ for future use rather than have to convert it back to £ - but that depends on what your platform offers (II does, HL does not even offer access to HK).

Certainly the current expected return (assuming the deal happens on these turns is much better than a deposit account….such deals are hard to arrange so both parties are unlikely to go back to negotiate a lower price…

On reflection I was being a bit greedy wanting 99% of the deal value… I doubt there are many competition issues, but the various local regulators will need their time to clear the deal. The SP will undoubtedly rise as these approvals come through…

The SP will be slightly lower than the offer prior to completion, I will sell when I can get 3850 rather than wait for the final settlement in x months time.

The question is where to reinvest?

Bloomberg reporting discussion of a lower offer late yesterday.

HK industry wide premiums were up 28x on last year as the border with China opened up.

Historically HK has been an important market for Pru so i am looking forward to big leap in H1 newbusiness volume and profits.

Cheap at these levels

Tomorrow is decision day…..unless it is delayed again.

£6 gain or £9 fall…..and all points in between are possible…

Lots of papers…..usually i take a look…but I think i will wait to see what gets added to the corporate presentation,,,,,unimportant until there is a filing

Takeda has got a bargain…..priority review is a bonus….i know it was eligible, but it should save 6m on the registration time…..EMA and JPN news to follow soon…..Takeda can build for a launch in Jan24….no doubt approval will trigger a further milestone payment and there will be some royalties due next year.

There should be regular positive news on the pipeline now……which should help the SP move upwards…other things being equal…

What do we think might happen when the FDA opines?

I think the risk is asymmetric….a negative opinion may cause a 90% fall

A positive one a modest rise because the a good chunk of the uplift in value is likely to flow to new investors in the next fund raise…..i am not buying more until the fund raise is over….but I dont want to sell as i think the prospect of a positive outcome is higher than 50/50.

Genmab has got FDA approval at Ph1/2 study with a 38% Complete Response Rate and 71% Overall Response Rate….it needs to do a confirmatory Ph3.

Amdizalisib data is 0 CRR and 24% ORR…….unless there is a different modality and potential combination HCM should not pursue Amdiz for DLBCL……it was not on the priority list.

Amdiz has 36% and 82% for FL…..so that is definitely worth pursuing.

My main point is do not delay if you have a potential winner….the competition is there and may be ahead so you need to be nimble and quite ruthless in allocating investment in each candidate.

Needs FDA endorsement….but then maybe CKD is something insurers and patients dont really want to know about.

And lays the ground for a lower offer….or corralling shareholders to vote for.

Without the potential bid this would now be around £25.00.

There will be plenty of nervousness now about whether a bid will emerge….

More worrisome if it was Randall….but still a loss of corporate knowledge and relationships with suppliers and customers will need further investment.

Sharon has a largish shareholding…..hopefully she keeps a good chunk.

On my LinkedIn MNG is hiring a senior manager (M&A)….tooling up for a more expansionary phase? Or defensive?

Lgen and aviva still reporting mid august, phoenix is 18 sept close to mng

Not long now….although a further delay cannot be discounted.

I suspect a new fund raising will launch assuming a positive outcome…..it will be much harder if there is a negative response.

I hope you have not bought in anticipation of a deal……..

While M&G is one of the top tips, large deals with big premiums in this business are quite rare…..most deals are forced sales which MNG does not appear to be at.

More likely a low /no premium merger creating a larger player (which in itself should generate an uplift due to synergies)…..but look what happened to Abdn and Standard life..not always a match made in heaven….although that might be seen as either a) hubris to create a Scottish champion or b) two drunks propping each other up

Best to be satisfied with a decent dividend and modest organic/ inorganic growth if management can make it happen. 20p in dividend and 10p share price growth pa is what I consider worthwhile….but the shares are much more volatile than this so there is opportunity to trade for those that wish….buy in the 180s sell over 200 will do quite well.

So we will get a trading update for Q1 on 8 June…..because the H1 reporting is delayed by 5-6 weeks as a result of IFRS17 implementation…..hope those are not a mess / delayed beyond the announced date in late September.

Hopefully they will see fit to issue a Q2 trading update by mid August - seems only fair..

IPSEN has announced the completion of its takeover of Epizyme and now is the counterparty to the HCM deal to commercialise Taz in China.

The press release is complimentary about the therapy (unsurprisingly)….the more interesting question is whether HCM will seek to partner with IPSEN with further distribution deals in and ex China.

CPP has reduced its stake below 3%…..the form is a little unclear as it references a less than 3% voting rights, but has no entry in the new holding field. it is not clear whether they have sold completely but that is one reading of the form.

Sale of a relatively large stake will be behind recent weakness.