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The market give QLT a positive reaction today…..up nearly 3% when quite a few competitors were down 1-2%……back to £1 soon?

Yes spikeyj, 110 proving not too bad as a top up point….still some upside from its oncology and alexion portfolios to come.

Beigene announces tisleslizumab positive results in gastric/GEJ cancer
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/beigene-announces-positive-phase-3-110000423.html

The treatment landscape keeps changing….does this impact the supplementary NDA announced only a few days ago?

https://www.biospace.com/article/fda-approves-polivy-in-first-line-dlbcl/This is an area where Amdizalisib is being assessed. Interesting that Polivy has a 27% response rate, the ph1 for Amdiz is 24% (but not many assessed - so similar) and there has not been a new DLBCL treatment approved for 20years……several years away should HCM even prioritise that therapy area……FL and MCL are higher volume and are the priority areas.

Davey - I hope you turn out to be right…..in which case we will need to toast the patient nature of CKHH as a blocking shareholder preventing the company being sold for much less today and allowing us to benefit in the long term.

Strong Q1 growth and borders reopened should be just what the new CEO needs to get off to a good start….
Looking forward to a strategy update in the not too distant future from him…..steady as she goes is not enough….they need more local investors, and to work out what to do with their Chinese and Indian JVs - if they cant get majority ownership will they list them separately?

Merck has paid 70% premium to acquire Prometheus and GSK more than 100% for Bellus.

While i dont think it likely CKHH will trade HCM any time soon, it does give an indication of what the offer would need to be to enter into negotiations……of course it also depends on the other funding needs of CKs businesses which seem to be self sustaining at present.

More good news - as promised the supplementary NDA is filed and ready to be assessed….hopefully this is approved and sales can commence in H2 24.

The bigger question is whether Takeda will pursue this line of therapy ex-China….the results were positive but not across the board hence announcement of GEJ therapy. being taken forward ex-China will be a significant step should it happen.

The resumption of factory inspections opens the way for Fruquintinib manufacturing to be assessed and used as within the current US filing…….although it did seem that Takeda may take over this task ex-China in due course. Switching sites would appear to present something of a risk to approval, so I hope Shanghai gets assessed.

35% gain in the last week with some minor pipeline news shows how difficult the market is finding it to put a value on HCM.

The deal will probably take 6m to get regulatory approval, maybe more, hence the discount of 7.5% to the potential offer, I would expect that to close to 3% on a firm offer and then reduce further as completion nears.
The big question is whether a trade buyer is willing to pay more than PE….watch the press over the next couple of weekends.

The politicians voicing concerns about Chinese influence says to me a deal is in the offing…..
VOD needs to have management control to get it through….
CKHH will be interested in capital return and allegedly wants to sell down its stake and exit over time…..starting off with less than 50% ownership is a pre-requisite.

Market reaction is very muted……I anticipated a bump up with the results….so am disappointed……maybe it is the Easter holiday effect?

A new corporate presentation was posted date 31 March

453 is not shown on the clinical runway for NDAs, presumably a decision in 2024…but signs of further potential.
Savo Gastric is on the list for NDA in 2024, but has already been running for 2 years so they should be confident of response and survival by now, hopefully they can recruit the candidates quickly and run the trial to close H1 next year

There are some highlighted comments indicating Sov and Amd are expected to submit NDAs later this year…..which all seems to confirm their pipeline progress is on track….although only really banked when they obtain regulatory approval.

The data I found most interesting was the product sales list…..
The largest sellers were acquired after the big share issue and are justifying the deals…..then comes a block of “old VLG” which seemed to suffer badly last year down 20% or so…..whether these brands are in terminal decline or whether that highlights management focus on the new stuff is open to discussion…..I suppose it supports the view that the mcap reflects the recent acquisitions and old VLG is increasingly valued at near zero.
None of the products are what might be described as a blockbuster which means they have to run hard across the range…..they really need to get products with much wider appeal and higher annual sales

Add back the dividend and this is back inside its zone prior to the banking collapses….long may that continue

Do we know what the PDUFA timeline is for Fruquintinib?
Is it the full 10 months? I recall it had some special designation that permitted the rolling submission, but unsure whether this shortens the review period as well.

Maybe….

Todays update of a new insurance contract is welcome but means nothing without take up and sales of tests…..

A pivotal year ahead…..either sales start coming through….perhaps catalysed by FDA approval….or dilution in new funding round(s) or even a fire sale in a near insolvency event….

UBS sounding a lot like Lloyds when presented with HBoS…..

Not sure why the results are being poorly received…..the presentation does not look too shabby….although the CEO intro is relatively insipid with no new strategy / ideas at this stage.
HK shares barely moved in the afternoon session following the announcement…it is London that is negative…
SCMP reports IFRS profits beat consensus….and there was a 9% uplift in the dividend and 2023 sales appear to have been brisk so far….

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