Member Info for Jatw

1pencil….you have the NASDAQ volume divided by 5 when you should be multiplying by 5 as 1 ADS = 5 ordinary shares. so rather than volume being 50k it is 1.25m
Ave volumes over the last 3m (Yahoo finance)
HK 3.8m
Nasdaq 280k ADS = 1.4m
AIM 166k
And yes good to see the Takeda deal be completed today……and they did not lose anything in the US bank failures (this time)….must admit that losing money on deposit was not a risk I was expecting.

Probably similar to AIA with main metrics up 5-7% (except for IFRS profits which are v volatile and could be a huge loss as investment values have fallen).)

not with SVB, hopefully at banks too big to fail, like HSBC.

Useful RNS update….plus the news that HSBC has taken the SVBUK business under its wing will give stability.
As VLG owes SVB, there really is little problem, there will be no cash lost…..but the refinancing of the credit may be more expensive? The accompanying trading update was reassuring about the first two months and cash generation to reduce the debt…..nothing to see here folks.

Lots of market by market consolidation deals still to be done….trying to create local operating champions….almost no customers sign up because of second country network coverage…

E& probably want much of Africa, CKHH the owner of 3 just wants a better return in the short term followed by an exit in the medium to long term…and has executed the local pooling of operations in Italy, Indonesia and Australia (with VOD in this case).

This deal is almost certain to happen…..past mergers have seen mistakes by OFCOM / CMA and unbalanced the mobile market in favour of EE and O2.
My guess is the regulators will impose open access to MVNOs - that has gone badly for 3 and VOD in Italy where Illiad has been taking market share off both…..but that pain is far better than living with two sub-scale networks gradually losing to the current big two.

The alternative is two lame duck networks.

The results will look different in future as these investment gains and losses will go through the contract service margin and be smoothed over the contract life……
Profits will be much smoother and closer to operating profit.

The cash available for shareholder payments is driven by capital surplus and debt levels…..hence the focus on capital position and debt.
Paying out nearly £400m in dividend and a 500m buy back has reduced own funds and increased the debt ratio (but not changed the debt)
MNG will repay some £300m debt in 2024, so there may not be much room for buy back and that will bring the debt ratio back to under 30%.

Expectations of £800m capital generation in each of the next two years to hit the capital target means the dividend and debt payments are comfortably affordable for the immediate future.

There will surely be a recording available later…..just been watching the Aviva presentation. Strangely I now think Aviva and MNG would go well together…..but unlikely to happen.

Best results in the sector by far for predictability and future stability…..they have their business model sorted out….
Not many sleepless nights as a result of their business…..

A further thought about the strategy discussion in the presentation is that this is definitely hanging the “under new management” sign out…..
Any prospective M&A now knows what it has to deal with…..dont know if that makes it more difficult or easier to deal with……I suppose what it does mean that any bidder knows they will get a few billion back quite quickly.

The item that stands out for me it that their £500m deal in 2023 is retained on the Shareholder balance sheet, without the use of the business partner reinsurance…..that is a significant sign of financial strength that has not been seen for a long time…..of course they can add reinsurance at any time in the future, but I find that very encouraging.

The presentation on the company website is an interesting read……it sets out the aims for the next few years…..and also highlights the weaknesses in the business.
This is a very different beast to LGEN or AVIVA.
The asset manager costs are way too high…..the insurance company is currently in run off and the wealth business is in early development…..
15% cost reduction targeted, previous capital generation target retained……
Contrast with LGEN and AVIVA is stark - they have their business model sorted out and their divisions appear to be working effectively and together……MNG appears to be a bloated Asset Manager living off the insurance company policyholders…..
IMV this is likely to drift sideways / down as a high yielding stock….

A somewhat unusual CEO statement in that it was quite discursive and sounded like an Alevel exam submission analysing both sides and concluding must do and can do better.

The market used to love wealth management…..it seems to be taking a more pessimistic view of distribution at the moment…….QLT needs some “sponsor driven consolidation”.

It is all about the forward looking statements…..we know what the AUM was for last year and revenue will have tracked that and costs increased due to inflation, so expect a fall in headline profits……but markets have recovered a bit so the outlook may be brighter…..
Todays fall is a risk off reaction ahead of results…..but like ABDN and Just (today up 11% after falling 8% ahead of results) I foresee a bounce if they make positive noises……if they are too cautious or even hint at more difficulties then they could sink but I think the surprise will more likely be on the upside…..anyway too late to trade the shares now, we have to wait and see.

Could have been related to the issue of perpetual preference shares $550m (plus a little existing cash) to repay $600m debt due in November.
Presumably this strengthens the balance sheet more than just paying down the debt instead of a buy back.
Still undervalued in my view..

Ace….Just is quite fortunate to still be alive and kicking……after the regulator made mortgages much more expensive to hold, Just has had to rebuild its balance sheet…..the hedging was required to enable it to demonstrate reasonable solvency levels while it did this.
They have had sale discussions but those did not meet the Directors valuation of the business…..maybe now the business is on a firmer footing there can be more realistic discussions……there are well capitalised operations looking to move on the DB annuity market…they could buy Just and save themselves a couple of years building the capability….

Perhaps surprisingly the SP continued to gain and ended up 11% on the day…..bodes well for holding this level as I am anticipating some broker upgrades in the next week.

Interest rate rises are causing two effects in the annuity writers:
1 significant gains in Solvency Coverage Ratio - supporting higher dividend / buy backs
2 large IFRS losses resulting from falls in asset values (incl hedges).

SP likely to respond to uplift in distributions.

Nasdaq down 16% in the last week, but only 3% in London.
On a daily basis, Nasdaq seems to fall and then recover in the aftermarket…..is there a fundamental lack of confidence emerging in the US?

Turns out there wasn’t one…..the market likes the results and the positive forward statements.
Touching 90p now, no doubt it will fall back in the coming days to mid 80’s, but can push on during the year with further delivery against plan….and this year with reduced hedging losses.