Member Info for Jasper13

I have been trying to look at the company cash position since the last quarterly report (March 21) and I think it makes ok reading. All figures are taken from the quarterly and recent RNS’s. I’ve converted it all to £ as some figures are quoted in US$ and some in AUD$.

Cash balance as at 31st March 21 - £169k
Funds from share subscriptions - £266k
Funds from equity raise £2.4m
Cash calls GSPC - £388k
Sale of Bhandut - £208k

Total cash funds - £3.431m

Costs and operational expenses:

GSPC acquisition - £1.58m
GSPC deal costs - £150k (assumption)
Deal costs Bhandut sale - £20k (assumption)
Monthly operational expenses - £84k p.m ( based upon number in March 21 report) x 3 months from April to June £252k.

Total cash costs - £2.002m

Balance - £1.429m.

Now I expect expenses from June to increase to include Roland salary (£150k) + benefits and for staff to return from furlough to work on the technical aspects of the current wells. Confirmed as currently in progress. Figures below.

CEO salary and benefits - £15k
Other staff costs - £20k (assumption)
Other costs - £10k (assumption)
Total increased monthly costs - £45k

Revised monthly cash burn - £84k + £45k =£129k

Taking the balance of cash £1.429m and applying the monthly approx cash burn of £129k p.m gives us cash for 11 months. I have made no other assumptions and may have missed items, but just wanted to get an idea of do we have working capital to commence BaU work flows on existing wells. Seems we have.

We all know funding is required for the 2x new wells and that this should come from a JV.

Interestingly and perhaps sense checks the above, take the £1.429m of cash against the current shares in issue 5,685,971,571 and you get a share current share price of 0.25p. :-)

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120426/pdf/425t92rwgly0rf.pdf

Slide 9 - Netherland Sewell CPR numbers. Best case discovered in place.

1.633 billion barrels of oil
1.3 14 tcf of gas

And now we own 100% of that!

The market has not worked this out yet and this old data is in much need of regurgitating!

They get the existing wells and new wells flowing - quite simply game changing.

Roland did say to me they won’t sell and JV short in terms of value. You can see why based on those numbers. And bear in mind these are “best discovered in place” numbers, no accounting for any upside. They’re on slide 9 too :-)

Callum .. great analysis thanks for posting. And even more so for keeping it real. Found this to add, this is just the 77H well data.

Just think how technology has improved since then to stimulate, plus the increase in oil and gas pricing.

They know they have a huge lucrative project, just need to get it out the ground.

I’ve been looking at cash flows and values, will post later today.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/oilex-ltd/rns/cambay-basin-demonstrates-strong-economics/201412120700086024Z/

Jack....you were bang on.....great insight to share thank you.

Espen..... I’ve always been an optimist :-) I do though genuinely think we are in a good place at the moment. Market hasn’t woken up to this yet, it will, and you’ll not be able to be being at this price. £10m market cap??? No way .....

Speaking to Roland, it’s a done deal and finalised, it just has to go through a ratification process. Typical government bureaucracy.

All the next steps falling into place .....full drawdown of all the funding. Payment to GSPC next.

Bluehope ..... ignore Oz market it’s totally meaningless.

Hi Callum .... totally agree it was a real interesting chat I had with him. He certainly wants to have a diverse portfolio and that’ll open up different funding options. He mentioned his contacts from Star and I suspect conversations will be had.

I think he’ll take us towards a gas storage play and mentioned he’d been study many papers on it.

Gordon.... he seemed to think that opportunities could be forthcoming as portfolios get reassessed and licence renewals come up for grabs. Funding will get sorted based upon the individual opportunity. He did mention and also reaffirmed this in today’s interview that he wants a portfolio of assets that are exploring and producing and not have all eggs in same basket. I think he’s keen on UK and Ireland.

https://twitter.com/StockBoxMedia/status/1407285273679912963

Roland live now

I said last night I’d post details of my conversation with Roland. Here is the detail including my own take and interpretation.

India is key priority and is currently awaiting ratification, all approvals have been sought. Work is currently underway with regard to the required technical stimulation processes of both the current wells. Joe will play an integral part in the sub surface strategy to bring the wells back on stream.

Moderate cash is required for the two wells/production and we all know a JV has been muted for this. Oilex want to retain a significant majority stake in any JV, discussions still ongoing and they won’t sell the value short.

Future opportunities will be considered specifically any projects that are oil/gas producing to gain immediate cash flow. Feelers are being put out that Oilex is in the market and acquisitive.

Ireland represents a great opportunity and work will continue.

Roland is very keen to develop a strategy around gas storage and utilise processes and strategies that support the drive for cleaner energy supply. He has a proven background in this with Star.

I asked about the long term aspirations of future enterprise value. He thinks Oilex could in time, if the ducks line up, repeat the value of Star Energy acquisition by Petronas for £339m.

I gained the impression he’s been bought in to support the complete re-setting of the company with a short term aim of making it cash flow producing as soon as possible.

He was very knowledgeable about the business and I took an awful lot of positives regarding his strategic thoughts and plans.

The driver behind the next valuation milestones will be JV and production. I’d like to see Oilex retain at least 70% of the Cambay licence, at which point market value could be around £25-30m.

Hope that helps.

I’ll summarise in a post tomorrow. Gordon ... home on Friday, being dosed up with painkillers so just taking each day at a time, thanks for asking.

If anyone wants to take this offline and discuss I’m happy to do that.

Alan2000… respectfully I had a private conversation so it wouldn’t be right to divulge all the detail on a bulletin board. I can say I came away from the call very confident that there is a clear strategy and direction the business wants to take. As a result I’m happy to invest more.

Edited post.....This certainly won’t be the case as they are no longer interested in E&P investment.

Had a very positive and welcome call with Roland today, responding to one of my general emails to investor relations. Quite refreshing from a new CEO to speak to a PI.

Set out a clear strategy of future development which will hopefully add significant shareholder value over the next 12 - 24 mths.

I am very impressed with not just his previous credentials and experience but also the depth of knowledge he has already gained surrounding Oilex current projects.

It’s confirmed my decision to add significantly to my holding. DYOR as always.

Can’t help but think Roland has been bought in to allow Oilex exposure to funds he has available via KKR.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/kkr-backs-new-european-oil-and-gas-producer-exploiting-proven-reserves-1442931147

Look at it this way, you can buy shares today at a 20% discount to the placing. How do you think Republic will be feeling about that? Certainly not panicking one bit.

There will be reasons why the shares are being allocated in tranches. Probably linked to the final legal process of the acquisition. This may have been stipulated as part of the funding round.

I don’t get why people think these shares are going to be dumped into the market? At a loss? Why?

This is just MMs playing games and trying to make a quick buck or two.