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Hi Moniman,
Thanks. The gist of LSE's explanation to me strongly suggests that, as you say, entire thread went due to abuse. From who, wasn't cited & I shall let that lie as it serves little purpose. My point to them was that by deleting entire threads, including all reasoned posts, then any random troll could get entire threads deleted.
But as I say, I welcome various views as all BBs tend to be investor dominated & much that isn;t bullish is resented. This leads to positives frequently being highlighted, whilst negatives are made light of or else ignored. It's a form of confirmation bias. I too suffer from it occasionally. Hence why I also like to read well-considered bearish views. Some of those are taken on board.
For example: when this was well over 180, anyone expressing concerns about debt & suggesting SP might fall by some distance, got short shrift. No way, was the common view. After all, VOD had been a sound "defensive stock" for years. But blindspots & complacency in this game are often punished. Hence some of us are holding vast paper losses here, including me. - GL.
Drewky,
No amount of shorting can stop quality stocks rising, or making new highs when fundamentals are improving. Ditto for wider markets when sentiment is positive.
But many large funds occasionally go long & short, sometimes hedging very large investments. This means that when there's temporary bad news, rather than selling all their long positions to buy back cheaper & tanking SPs even more so, they may add shorts instead. At least until seller exhaustion & a bottom is reached. Then positive sentiment returns. As they close their shorts, SP is given greater upward momentum. It gives an overall balance to markets.
To clarify: I rarely ever go short. About 99% of my positions are LONG ONLY because shorting is also risky. Many shorters suffer severe losses, as do longs. But I'm fine with anyone making money from markets, in either direction from their good judgement. This game is never easy & it has no bearing on my decisions.
FWIW, I've sold some IQE at profit, but still have 3 longs left, underwater at 96.90, 100.20 & 104.80 (all posted live on ii). I'm holding on as a return to over 100 here is by no means far-fetched, though 99+ is a resistance level, tested in November & re-tested a few days ago.
Mindful of said resistance, realistically a return to 100+, last seen August, needs fresh bullish data or news. Results on 20th March will be key. - GL.
Well after asking LSE for a reason, giving credit to LSE, Craig of customer services replied quickly explaining that my post went as earlier parts of the thread were unacceptable. Fair enough.
Substance of my post to Moniman: well considered bearish posts were as useful as bullish ones. I agree VOD was mismanaged in recent years. About 18 successive years of divi increases before last interim, whilst allowing debt to become alarmingly high. No wonder Colao left when he did, selling his entire holding.
No acclaimed investor thinks that high debt is okay. Not Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Howard Marks, et al. On principle they avoid stocks with high debt for a few reasons. Not least that when it gets to the stage of spooking markets, there's always a sharp sell-off resulting in huge losses, paper or otherwise.
In VOD's case, a further increase in debt seems inevitable to finance the $22 billion Liberty Deal. So one wonders what would happen to VOD's SP if the EU decided not to approve the deal on 2nd May? perhaps quicker recovery as they'd avoid increasing debt & could reduce current levels faster.
Nice rise today against a widely falling FTSE. Just hope volume is significant & we can consolidate. - GLA.
Why, Lords knows. It was a rational view to Moniman free of bad or inappropriate language. Result! I won't waste my time making more contributions here until I'm preparing to exit. - GLA.
PM44,
People make mistimed or simply crap calls. Almost without exception, even the pros. But some, rather than take responsibility for a change, always prefer to blame shorters. If not shorters, it's MMs, manipulation or something else. If one wants to learn from errors, self-accountability is key.
I wouldn't even consider signing petitions like this.
Disappointing retreat from 99+ seen just 2 days ago. IMO, fairly pointless trying to call a support level with lower volume AIM stocks as volatility can be extreme. But should it fall back to the 60s, I'll look to add some real shares for the first time to my remaining leveraged longs. We'll see what the next few market days bring.
FTSE down, VOD up + on good volume. That constitutes a relatively decent day (for a change) in context.
No-one knows 100% for sure if the bottom has been found. Much depends on final results in May. But there's certainly a good chance the worst may be very close to being behind us. If so, it's no more than those of us who've bought from far higher up & who are still holding on, deserve.
Those who complain after buying very recently: I hope you manage to book your profits soon & find better fortune elsewhere. No-one pretends this game is easy. - GLA.
GoTrader,
Indeed. Short positions on IQE significantly reduced in recent weeks. - GL.
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0009619924/
Bruce,
Indeed. With globally interconnected markets, in the event of seismic bad news from anywhere across the world that often leads to panic-driven sell-offs, it also allows funds to hedge their long positions to avoid selling off investments at huge loss. Shorting has a role in the overall balance of markets.
Sold one of my 4 longs here recently. Three underwater longs left. Target circa 103/104. Despite the current blip partly for profit-taking, I'm confident we'll be back to over 100 later. - GLA.
YES, as having been at VOD for years, Nick Read knows the demands & challenges of progressing the business inside out. Most of the woes recently affecting VOD are the legacy of former CEO, Colao.
Dan,
I agree that beating the same doomsayer drum every day hardly helps matters, nor adds anything new. We have enough of that from random trolls every so often.
IMO, important to stay calm, rational & avoid bottling it near very L/T lows as happens to many investors & traders across many stocks who exit at huge loss, only to see good rises after. Granted that no-one knows where the bottom is here, but these lows are getting a little ridiculous & seem mostly sentiment-driven. Fear dominates rationality. It can last for weeks or months, as in VOD's case. But if find support, there'll be a lot of upside here later.
JD staying firm.
DJ,
As much as I share your disappointment, in the circumstances of prevailing negativity about VOD, perhaps the best we can hope for is that yesterday's 131.36 close may be near the bottom & a support level. Any succession of higher closes from here on offers chink of light that the worst may have been seen. Just my view without taking anything for granted. - GL.
"So you'd be down about 9 grand"
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LC,
Whilst distracted by other screens as, unlike you, I also have live UKX trades to keep an eye on as posted on ii, I was being kind. More like 15 grand down if £5 a point. So let's hope you're all talk after all & don't actually trade. You'd end up on Skid Row in n time. - GL. - Catch all later.
Last-Call,
The one stock wonder returns! LOL. For all the c-rap emitting from you, I hope you're doing fine, which I seriously doubt.
I asked you to make just one live trade or call back in December. You said DOW under 20K by end of January 2019. DOW was then near 23K. DOW just seen 26K+. Over 6K out. Never did go anywhere near 20K. Assuming you're the great pro you claim to be, I doubt you'd stick £1 a point on it. Presumably at least £5, if not more. So you'd be down about 9 grand... that's if you weren't all bull. Which is a blessing.
As Harold Kaufman once wrote: "Two kinds of people regularly lose money in markets. Those who know nothing & those who know EVERYTHING". You're type concisely summed up in the latter. So going by your few live calls, how much have you lost overall? Talk about turkeys. The biggest one is thee. LOL ;o) At least people have the basic integrity to be honest about their errors on here. - GL.
AW100,
With respect, it all depends on what is being priced in with these regular falls & L/T lows. IMO, a severe divi-cut is now looking likely.
Take those links: indeed, one fund increases its VOD stake by $1.7m. Small investment for any fund. Yet another fund reduces it stake in VOD by over $148m. These are no schmucks. They don't take these decisions lightly. When funds start to bail at such large amounts, it's usually a warning sign that they think there may be worse news ahead. Do not assume that can't happen. - GL.
Ignore the "20". Butter fingers. Cheers.
One daren't call a final bottom here as it's almost like tempting fate after previous hopes of seeing the bottom above 140 & then 135. Market sentiment is totally negative since Moody's downgrade 20 Baa2. Let's hope above 130 holds firm. If 130 goes, I fear this is in deeper trouble with market expecting yet more bad news ahead & any way back could be a very long way off.
Still holding firm here, but I'll review later as every one has their limit... eventually. - GLA.
"I also bought yesterday at 133.62 and Tuesday at 135.97 but only with this months dividend income as most of my cash went in at higher prices" :-(
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Longish,
Thanks. IMO, once committed to riding things out with falling stocks, adding at lower levels to average down is often a good strategy. It's certainly usually served me well over time. That said, I'll not call the bottom here as most of us first thought it'd be circa 143 & then, more recently, 135. But it really can't be too far off even if future divi-cut & other issues are being priced in.
Markets don't always get it right. Occasionally they over-react in either direction. In this case, Moody's downgrade has stoked further fears about debt. As we know, sentiment, rather than rationality, is usually a huge driver in markets. If market is erring on the side of caution, then we'd anticipate a gradual upward correction well before next results in May. If we're still stuck in the mid-130s come May, then I'd be quite concerned in case of another poor reaction.
This game is never easy, but when one calls it right or else sees a beaten-down stock recover, it's also very rewarding. No question of me selling my stakes at loss anytime yet. - Regards.
"Jack, Do you think the final divi (same as last year) is definitely safe? If not, I might even start having a moan myself, but quietly?"
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Dan,
Frankly, I never read through all of VOD's report transcripts, but I recalled this bit in an article from Q2 report in November 2018. To quote: “Vodafone held its interim dividend flat at 4.84 euro cents, expecting the full year dividend also to remain flat on the year prior at 15.07 cents.”
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1542094326948994700/top-news-vodafone-holds-payout-tightens-guidance-on-good-interims.aspx
Going by that, no increase in this year's final as expected, but it also suggests no cut. If they had to cut it in future, I imagine it'll start with the next interim. Otherwise there'll be plenty of disappointed holders. - Regards.
Char,
Only matter of time before someone will be moaning about you moaning about others moaning at those who always moan. ;o) Only one cure for that: a solid SP rise & consolidation beyond what we've seen. - GL.