Graham Clarke CEO and Andrew Vaughan, Head of Corporate Development from Emmerson the Moroccan potash mine developer, presented at London South East's April Investor Webinar. Watch the full video here.
Results were a mixed bag. Not disastrous by an means, but saw lower than analyst estimates on some key targets. For eg. revenue well down. I've held my 3 tranches, average 226+, as always intended until late 2021.
I think the selling is overdone. But also no surprise that some algos are selling off on any miss to previous forecasts. It happens to most stocks. Even those premium ones like APPL whenever analysts targets are missed.
I've not posted as much because the increased lockdown due to C-19 will only delay recovery for stocks like BP & creates uncertainty. This won't see greater recovery, ie. well beyond 300, until the world gets to grips with C-19 & economies open up again. - GL.
Thanks. Much agree. We've a number of positives looking ahead.
Another contextual positive today & recently is that stocks like BP continue recovering at a time when the FTSE 100 is having another down day. When the global economy opens up & indexes like the FTSE 100 recover to at least well above 7,000, IMO, there seems little question that some of BP's bigger gaps above will be filled. Just a question of time. - GL.
Good call. Over 300 seemed a given & only a matter of time. I'm still holding with my 226+ average. I see no reason not to continue holding until at east the global economy gets back on track. That's still some time away, so this has some way to go before peaking.
With a yield for me of over 7%, I'm glad to stay put. - GLA.
I'm with ii. My BP dividends arrived in my account early Friday morning. But in that respect ii have always been very reliable. But from reading around, I know some broker take a little longer.
Some of it may be priced in as news broke about the new variant days ago & furlough was extended to end of April before Friday. So more lockdowns hardly unexpected.
But as you indicate, little is clear-cut at this stage. There are ongoing key variables that are still impossible to answer with great confidence. All these lockdowns only further curtail economic activity for longer. That's happening globally & it's bound to affect timeframe of greater recovery for a few sectors.
Bigger concern for me looking ahead is US markets. They're clearly overbought on stimulus expectations. But at some point there'll be a bigger sell-off there. As we've seen plenty of times, when US spikes to new record highs, UK never follows. When the US sells-off, it almost invariably drags down UK's weak markets.
We are by no means out of the woods. That said, no issue for me as I've determined to hold my BP shares (average 226+) until at least into late 2021. Maybe beyond? I do enough trading with UKX.
NB: I took the dividend cash on Friday, having cancelled my DRIP plans as it no longer reduces my average price. - GLA.
In context with other global markets, not least the record-breaking US, despite the recent rally here, IMO, the FTSE 100 remains far from overbought. Plenty of upside potential here for 2021, mindful that it started 2020 at well over 7600. FTSE just below 6400 as I write.
However, whilst I think we'll rally before the NY (I said this earlier well before this morning's vaccine approval news), we're unlikely to recover to 01/2020 levels any time soon until the global economy is back on track. About 70% of FTSE 100 stocks earn profits in dollars or other foreign currencies. So the global recovery factor is key & not least to BP.
BP will be fine &, with my average of 226 & a bit on 3 tranches, I'm unconcerned by daily volatility. But I may look to sell at over 450, so not anytime soon. To each their own on this & there are bound to be more hiccups. - GL.
Today's low so far 244. On the 27th I'd noted on here that BP left a technical gap at 244+ from the close of 20th November. No surprise that it's now closed.
Despite today's bounce, it's not untypical for indices to have a bullish day at star of a new month. But we're still far from out of the woods. GLA.
BP tanking & all. No surprise as over the w/end PM Johnson strongly hinted at a 3rd lockdown as something they'll not hesitate to impose if their data supports it. As all here know, lockdown equals less travel for even longer. Less profit for oil. Hence many SPs getting hammered again. - GL.
I share the same sentiment. Lives above profit. Many civilians in the ME, including Iran, hold moderate views & just want the freedom to be themselves. I also think nothing is likely to kick off as Iran hasn't the military capability. If the regime there hits back, most probably it'll be via allied proxy terrorist groups scattered across the ME.
But the ME is a huge mess partly exacerbated by the West's meddling. The dictators we toppled, for all their nastiness, were secular leaders. In Iraq, Libya, Christians were free to worship in safety, as were followers of any other religion. Today? Much of it overrun with extremists & brutal militias. All very regrettable. - GL.
Good to see you on here & I hope all goes well for you?
It's not for me to defend or bash TA. To each their own. However, we've ample reports that some large hedgies frequently employ TA signals in their trading algorithms. Hence, in the absence of fresh market-moving news or little data, many TA signals can be filled. I mean the basic stuff like resistance/support levels gaps, etc.
But I agree, & have said similar, that it's by no means infallible, hence it's often trumped by major events or strong data. - GL.
No harm in staying positive. It's good for one's overall health too. I remain on the cautious side for this year, but very bullish for 2021.
Maybe of interest, Bank of America see oil prices hitting $60 by next summer. - GL.
For those who go by TA, BP's recent strong bounce also left some gaps below. For example, it closed 244.40 on the 20th. Opened 248.95 next day. But we've also gaps above. From yesterday's close of 263.50 & today's open of 258+. Looking further ahead, there appears to be a gap from 10th June at 344+ (not a typo), which seems fillable when global economy recovers.
Not all gaps get filled soon & some never do. TA isn't gospel as we've also seen a change in trend recently, with blips being inevitable. Also there are too many variables to be sure. If a vaccine was officially approved next month, some gaps below might never get filled. - GL.
Agree with others. Things likely to remain very volatile due to external factors. After a strong bounce, it may even fall lower after this week? Little to do with BP specifically.
Most of FTSE tanking again after government guidance yesterday essentially extended another form of lockdown via placing much of England in Tier 3. With furlough lasting until end of March, markets fear some form of lockdown lasting until then? Also, Sunak's grim forecasts in his Spending Review also hit market sentiment across the FTSE.
My view firmly unchanged. BP still cheap. However, greater recovery & consolidation, ie. well above recent highs, seems unlikely until all main global economies open up. When it happens in 2021, not only will this spike up, but any gains are more likely to hold & built upon.
What we have now & for a while ahead will be more of the same. Occasional strong gains, followed by profit taking.
I'd maybe consider doing similar if I was leveraged. But with 3 tranches of real shares & a decent average of 226, it's a risk I refuse to take. But to each their own on this.
My overall divi yield on 226 average is decent enough to see BP as a potential proxy bank account. Plus, I do enough trading elsewhere, frequently indices like UKX. Glad to hold until at least end of 2021, regardless of more ups & downs being par for the course. - GL.
Agreed. I mentioned in a recent comment here that funds were buying. That was apparent when SP started to rise on huge daily volume. Always a bullish sign.
Whilst the recent rise is decent, I also concur that for me at least this remains a hold. BP still seems cheap. My average on 3 tranches a fraction above 226, after a balls-up with the original buy at 233+. I later added 2 more much lower down. All posted live here.
I may review things in very late 2021, by which the time global economy should be really back on track & BP much higher than 270+ (as I write).
NB: To others, always follow your own guidance. The doom 'n' gloom merchants gave this a proper pasting weeks ago, with one or two urging folk not to buy when it was far cheaper. If you followed them, you missed a great buying opportunity. Always DYOR. - GLA.
Hard to be sure in the short-term after a strong rise since sub-200 not long ago. For my money, it'll probably take a setback with timeline for the approval for these vaccines to see 220 again. But I could be wrong? However, by early 2021, if not before, over 300 seems very doable.
Of note: daily volumes behind these latest are well above average. That usually indicates that large funds have been adding for longer-term. - GL.
Down today, but nothing goes up in a straight line for long. Some profit taking today across the board after 3 excellent up days seems par for the course.
Maybe of interest for the oil sector looking ahead. - GLA.
As cunningfox says, it'll be down to your broker getting "best price" on the day.
I was going to add DRIP shares to reduce my 226 average. That was the plan until now. But the past 2 days suggests I'd be increasing my average, unless the SP falls back.
Your money, your call. But as it stands I'm going to cancel my DRIP & take the cash. Only because I already have 3 tranches here & prefer not to increase my average. All depends on what happens between now & payment date.
Not that I'm complaining. It's been a VG two days & if it continues, all the better!
Well done all who stayed calm & patient when we fell below 200.
It's been a strong buy for weeks, mindful that only the lucky buy the bottom. Having balls-up my first by at 233+, then added at 201+ & 198+, I can only be pleased by today's news & outcome. It seemed a matter of time.
As a number of us have said previously, keep calm, be patient & this is bound to be a lot higher later. Certainly well over 300 later. But those expecting £6 or £7? Hmm. I can only imagine they must have tongue firmly in cheek. ;o)
We're not out of the woods yet. But it's been a decent day relatively speaking! - GLA.
Ex divvi dates are always Thursdays. You can sell BP today and you will still receive the divvi. They pay it to you on 18 Dec. RDSB divvi is next Thursday but they pay it on 16 Dec.
Spot on. I've said same days ago. Yet still some here seem confused & are mistakenly advising others that if they sell today they lose the divi. Not so. Not difficult understanding that as long as you held before this morning's ex date, one can sell. They'll already be recorded on the register.
I'm holding until closer to 2022 & adding DRIP shares until SP goes above my average. As usual, to each their own. - GL.