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Hi Dan,
I agree that VOD's recent indicators look more bullish. It's broken resistance at 152+ days ago & now consolidating at higher levels. Circa 160 might pose hurdles, but a bigger test ahead is, IMO, circa 169+. Just below 169 was highest close in December when VOD rallied strongly from circa 142 to 170+ intraday. So that may see strong resistance.
So perhaps slower progress ahead? Hard to be sure. Next VOD results on 12th November. As usual, they'll be key to even greater recovery. For now, I imagine ANY progress will be welcome to holders. But later, if you can break past 170 with volume, then I'd anticipate even stronger recovery.
But as we know, much can happen in the interim, even if it's not directly related to VOD or the sector, including a GE. Let's hope nothing upsets the current trend.
Re LC: agreed. I never doubted his acumen regarding markets. But I see he's still winding some folk up & seems in 2 minds about how far this recovery can go. But as we know, no-one really knows that 100% for sure.
All the best & here's to you guys getting your higher targets in acceptable timeframes! I'll keep in touch & very much rooting for you.
"Vod sp to take off. Even Last call is bullish. So its a tellytubby buy buy."
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Dan,
Glad to see the recent rise for you & all other holders. Hope it continues.
As for LC? I see he is making plenty of new friends on ADVFN. ;o) He's as prolific & persistent as he was here. A few posters are losing their rag with him. Quite funny. - ATB!
Hicory,
VOD next divi yet to be confirmed. Forecast status. Goes XD on 21st November. GL.
https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/mobile-telecommunications/vodafone-group/dividends
Hi Dan,
In a nutshell, timeline of global markets retreat started with Trump's tweet late Thursday to increase tariffs by 10% on $300bn of Chinese exports. China was then also accused of weakening its currency, the Yuan, to make their exports more competitive.
If tariff wars ensue, many prices will rise, sales to consumers will drop off, manufacturing falls. This also means less demand for many supply lines. So entire global economy is affected. The fear is, whether justified or not, a global recession may start. Bad for everyone. Markets responded accordingly in near panic. Dow fell 767 points yesterday. FTSE over 183 pts after sharp falls on Friday. IMO, an overreaction.
Trump's approach lacks diplomacy & has much to do with escalating things needlessly. Had Obama behaved this way, IMO, he'd have been slaughtered. FWIW, I think Trump will soften his stance later as a global recession would diminish his chances of winning a 2nd term in office. Health of US economy is key. - Regards & GLA.
Mrd,
I'm with ii &, though now out of VOD, my dividend arrived early today. All dividends usually paid by 8 AM with ii. - Cheers.
Hi Oilovlam,
Thanks. Good to see you here & back on ii more recently after a lengthy absence. Hope all is well? You're a much respected, balanced poster. BBs can't have enough of them. Ignore the ankle-biters.
I'm targeting roughly 40% on my LLOY add, not including improving yield. Circa 73.5p, also a resistance level. Post-Brexit, IMO, a doable target. The L/T trajectory for UK house prices is firmly up after any sharp dips. I'd have needed well over 200 to get just a 20% profit on my former VOD holds (175+ & 198+). That's not to say that LLOY is without risk of seeing lower lows. Who knows? We really are headed for unknown territory if a hard Brexit seen.
Having ridden this out since 123+ lows, mindful of a gap below at 132 that markets may target on next negative news, my doubts increased. After a strong rise, I had no doubts about what was right for me. But regulars here & on ii will have been familiar with my faltering confidence from months back. That's been so since it first fell below 143+ a few months ago.
IMO, selling key assets that need to be rented back later is never a great sign looked at long-term. Also, there are grounds to avoid sectors where 10s of billions have to be paid every so often just to upgrade technology. Usually it's of little net benefit to shareholders. In this case, sharp dividend cuts & tanking SP. Aside from the business world, take-up of 5G is predicted to be slow among consumers.
One thing about all investor-dominated BBs, without exception: holders tend to see confirmation bias to the bull side only. Less likely to see negatives. Understandable enough. But I've always tried to stay neutral. As I will do with my existing holds elsewhere. There are pros & cons & significant risks across many stocks.
PS: Good to see both VOD & LLOY off to a good start on yesterday's close. Naturally hope all VOD holders see their targets.
All the best! Hope to catch more of your input on ii. ;o) That's all from me for a while. BBs ought to be for existing holders.
Qweqweqwe,
Thanks. One final comment from me for today. I agree re falling knives. But as a trader who's also prepared to hold longer term, taking occasional risk after some very huge falls is part of my mindset. Especially with TA factors in mind. CNA opened 83p yesterday. Previous close was 90.84. IMO, that left a gap that's fillable & the risk at SP offered was worth taking.
I bought CNA at 74.95. No-one buys exact lows bar fantasists. It went lower, which I was prepared for. It closed 76.08 today. So we'll see. IMO, yesterday seemed an overreaction to the update. CEO's planned departure & debt-reducing plans were positives that market ignored. We see this for many stocks.
As for VOD. Anyone who knows me from my comments here won't be surprised one bit. Only maybe by the timing.
Naturally I wish you & all here well with VOD. However, I don't look back & I'm glad to be out for reasons well stated before. - Regards.
Hi TLWilliams,
Thanks! Good to read of your successes elsewhere with said stocks. Hope it continues! This game is rarely easy. Setbacks par for the course, even for professionals let alone the rest of us. For eg. Woodford's fund.
I've also a decent track record with LLOY going back years. That 's despite today's 52.55 buy being a 4th add to underwater positions at 62+, 65+ & 66+. But no worries. What appeals about LLOY is that's it's a play on UK PLC. Less risk than investment banks. Also, offers steady income from progressive yield to be paid quarterly. Once we get resolution of Brexit, I think it'll recover very well. Target for today's buy is 73+, also a longer-term resistance level, will see circa 40% profit, without yield. If I can see that by 2021, I'd take that.
I think VOD will no doubt be higher again. But whilst some price gaps never get filled, VOD's open on 26th July at 138.80 left a gap from previous day's close of 132. Like I say, it's probably nothing to concern L/T holders & I know that TA is a factor that some here pay no mind to anyway. But that too was on my mind with VOD. Any bad news later & could that 132 gap get filled? I don't know, but I hope not for holders!
Indeed, we've seen a fair number of FTSE stocks get badly sold off in recent times. Some of it down to Brexit & ongoing political risks, but there are other issues too specific to stocks or sectors. However, quality stocks generally recover well as long as their underlying business is sound, can grow, increase revenues & keep debt down to reasonable levels. That's despite some poor quarters, as most stocks occasionally see.
Will definitely catch you & all again as I intend to keep in touch with some quality posters here. Even though I'm now out, will pop in to read others views. - All the best! Catch up a while later.
Hi Gerry,
Thanks. Agree with your main points & rationale. I too thought LLOY’s fall was overdone on today's update. I also bought CNA at 74.95 yesterday (announced on ii) for similar reasons. So much selling on sentiment seen after updates. I expound on my reasons for buying LLOY on their BB more fully.
Others here will well know that I’ve planned to exit VOD for a while, just biding my time for better opportunities. After the huge spike from 132 days ago to over 150 & some stuttering in SP after closing 152.24 two days ago, I had few doubts that it was finally time. That said, I hope this stock does well for others. But I'm content with my rotation today.
As for record keeping with swaps: indeed. Fairly easy for me. What I did with LLOY today was put entire proceeds of my VOD sale into LLOY. Only a few pence less as it worked out. Thus my latest LLOY tranche ended up with an uneven number os shares. Easy to track that aspect.
The plan was that on taking my hit, there’d be no licking of financial wounds, brooding, regretting, let alone feeling sorry for myself. Straight back into market & adding more LLOY had been a strong consideration for a while. After today’s dip, it seemed the right time.
Here's to continued recovery for VOD holders, be it with blips as for most stocks! - Regards & GL!
Hi Nuri,
Thanks. VG points & I appreciate why you may be looking to buy more on any further falls. Seems a sensible approach for those with patience & time on their side. In future, these prices will seem cheap.
I think any major uncertainty creates nervousness or jitters across markets, even if unfounded. Key things I bear in mind for LLOY is that being a play on the health of UK PLC & housing market, it has far less exposure to a number of global risks & variables. Whatever happens to our housing market shorter-term, we know that the L/T historical trend is quick recovery after any dips. With a significant under-supply of available homes, that will continue.
I'm also mindful that, unlike in 2008, UK banks are far better capitalised & have de-risked extensively from more toxic debt. So no major concerns here about holding this longer-term, mindful that it could go lower still later. - Best of luck!
Hi Oakie (Peachypie) & Nuri123,
Thanks to both. Good to hear from you Oakie! I hope you're keeping well. Thanks for asking, but I'm doing okay. Trading hard on UKX where most of my market hours are spent, but also occasionally still adding quality shares for longer-term goals.
Nuri,
Quite agree. Sometimes one needs to look beyond the current, adverse macro-climate & shorter-term challenges affecting sentiment behind a stock, to a better future when these things are history. No question in my view, one shared by many, that LLOY will be much higher again.
Of course we've heard it all before. But this Brexit business & associated uncertainties have undoubtedly hit all UK banks. Once settled, I see no reason for this not to recover well. - Regards to both.
This a 4th tranche to average down considerably. Also hold at 62.48, 65.15 & 66.78. Not expecting any significant profit anytime soon, more so 2020 or later. Target on some of it circa 73+ to 74. Maybe some of it lower.
Whatever we feel about Brexit (I shall leave that for another time), fair to say it's done stocks like LLOY no favours whatsoever. To the contrary. It's hot sentiment. But looking much further ahead, this will definitely see much better times in future. Even if house prices dip, their long-term trajectory is firmly up. History confirms so.
A progressive dividend to be paid quarterly from 2020 also appeals. LLOY ought to be fine even if it goes lower still. - GLA.
Hi Mikey,
Thanks. I very much hope this sees an excellent rise for you from these levels in future. Will be keeping an eye on SP. I'll also definitely catch your & others posts. Always of interest to see how people judge the situation looking ahead.
However, with now no stake in VOD, I shall also be a lot quieter in future. ;o)
Best of luck! We all need at least some of it occasionally.
For transparency: Taken my hit on my shares. Long expected, long delayed. But I felt the time was just right for me to exit VOD altogether after a good rise. Mindful that no-one exit the tops.
Sold this tranche & one from way back at 198.32 for 151. Not including dividends, a loss of just over 20%. Significant loss for me with shares. Less so with counting dividends.
Bought LLOY at 52.55 with proceeds. I figure a very L/T target there of 73 to 74+, ie. a 40% profit is more doable than holding on with this for similar percentage profit. LLOY also increasing its yield & will pay quarterly divis from 2020.
Time will tell if justified, but I feel this call was right for me. - GLA! I hope all of you each your targets. Will keep in touch.
I don't know about 170 time-wise, but at this rate & if volume remains strong, this could easily see 160+ this week.
I imagine more short stops are also being taken out near these levels, which is only driving the rise. All very welcome & the tricky part for some may be when to sell the shares. With buys at 175+ & 198+, I am still well down despite past dividends. - GLA.
Bullish early response! Almost 140 already. There may be profit taking later, but for now I'd settle for any finish above 135/136 by end of day. Steady progress that's also consolidated is better than the usual up & down roller-coaster. - GLA.
Gerry
Indeed. Revenues slightly down mostly due to exchange rates. But CEO typically bullish, citing underlying progress with more expected. Looks very mixed overall, so I'm not sure how market will react. Hopefully it buys into it, but maybe no great reaction either way. - GLA. Catch all later.
Hi Trendfriend & Dan,
Thanks to both for your respective replies. Appreciated. Been increasingly focused on trading screens due to other quite intense interests, but very much also keeping a keen eye on this.
I've decided to keep my VOD shares a while longer as next major move in SP remains indecisive. All down to substance of tomorrow's trading update as we expected. Regardless of whether we go up or down, I'll hold on longer. I remain more confident this will be much higher again later, even if we see more blips. A lot of negatives are probably priced in.
Agree with Trendfriend's well founded view about some significance in closing above circa 135.5 tomorrow, or soon after, if we're to see a breakout into a higher SP range. - Regards to both & GLA!
Hi Dan,
Cheers. Let's hope for another higher finish today.
I've no issues with you or anyone. Kindly note: there are behaviours on various BBs that seem close to attempted bullying of certain individuals & how they post. Once a point has been made, there seems nothing more to say. Bullying in general by repeatedly pointing out the same issue is, IMO, poor form. It makes BBs less appealing to visit. - Regards.
If no sell-off tomorrow, market may anticipate a decent day for VOD on the 26th. Whilst market hasn't been bullish for a long while here, neither is it that bearish at this stage. Encouraging, perhaps?
People moaning about others moaning here. The irony! ;o) - GLA.