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IvaP,
I agree it's priced in to some degree. Despite indicators from CEO that divi will be sustained, market remains unconvinced looked at longer-term until falling revenues are reversed & high debt is addressed. Understandable concerns. Level of debt remains a concern. Especially as intense competition across the sector is bringing down customer prices & key markets face an economic downturn.
That said, I'm not selling at loss at these prices. I shall hold on. I very rarely take hits. Hence why I'm well in profit with my real share account since starting 2009. But if things deteriorate with VOD's next results, I shall review accordingly. I'm an optimist by nature, but not blindly so. - GL.
Much agree. Dishonesty & years of under-par performance even compared to banks like RBS. With US markets & economy doing well, BARC should be doing much better. Not least in their IB division. But since Staley replaced Jenkins, it's been very poor, even when we make allowances for Brexit uncertainties. - GL.
It's more so stuck in a tight range than an uptrend. Since near 10 year closing lows of 135.08 seen 29th January, SP hasn't finished higher than 142+. For now, it seems a small blessing that it's not back down as uncertainty continues re a few key issues, including Liberty Deal.
As for broker targets: unless there's broad consensus, IMO, they hold little weight. Brokers notes had far more authority before easy online access to financial info for all. Now they're just one small ingredient. I tend to ignore them. For eg. VOD has targets from 125 to 300. Of little practical use to anyone. - GL.
That's the message from markets re BARC's forward guidance, et al. RBS & LLOY holding their own today. Their SPs even slightly up. This is down to 154+ as i write. IMO, get a new CEO in who market has confidence in & it'd put at least over 10p on SP in no time. As it is, it'll probably take an excellent Brexit deal to see this recover well. Otherwise, a long uphill road ahead - GLA.
Pity that Staley & McFarlane aren't following him out. A couple of overpaid wasters who've failed to deliver on targets ever since Staley was appointed. - GLA.
Suff,
Thanks. As we know, most of these macro issues are outside of BARC's control. No reflection on bank. But for many holders it's probably demoralising to hear the same old cobblers hitting their investments, almost day after day, bar short-lived chinks of light that a deal may eventually be agreed. If so, that'd be a massive boost for sentiment. We'd possibly see an initial bounce closer to 180. Maybe higher. But as it stands, it seems a no deal is again being priced in.
PS: There goes my chances in ii's BARC Comp for another week. A few more weeks left & I'll be leaving ii (mostly tumbleweeds on there now) bar closing my live trades on there & that my main trading account is with them. - GL. Catch all later.
Bitter disappointment for those who briefly thought yesterday may be a turning point, but then more uncertainty about Brexit & fears of a no-deal reared its head about midday. Reality is, banks like BARC would be particularly affected by a bad Brexit outcome.
As long as the current shower of muppets in Parliament can't agree on anything & with time running, a no-deal is possible. If that happens, the road to recovery for banks like BARC will be longer, more winding & with many more dips ahead. Pure reality as the bank has warned markets ample times. In fact, LLOY may well fare better as it's UK-centric & there'll be less impact initially. Whilst HSBC does most of its business in China & Asia.
I'll continue holding as before. But once we see a return to over 200, realistically still some time away, I'll take the last of my gains & I'm out. - GLA.
Addendum: nearly everything hit today mostly as more doubts expressed by EU that a no deal Brexit looks increasingly likely. That's particularly negative for banks like BARC & that'll continue the longer this farce goes on. Hence the SP retreat from day highs of 169.
Suff,
Like you, I don't care who's long or short. Glad to see others get gains for decent calls in either direction as, longer-term, it won't affect me. Besides which, this can be a hard game for most of us & any rewards deserved. However... the constant squabbling on some BBs I really don't get. Life's too short to get in a rut over nothing much. - GL.
No sure thing in markets in short-term at least. Anyone holding or trading UK banks since 2009 will know that better than anyone. Trick is not to get drawn into market's sentiment-driven games.
Stocks get oversold & overbought. Sometimes they're oversold for months on end due to uncertain macro conditions. Then one day: lift off. I may add more here with dividends in future. That's open to review. This will be much higher again post-Brexit. - GLA.
Hi SUF,
It may seem so, but I think most of us know by now that you plough your own road with markets. ;o) Often to VG effect, mindful that no-one buys exact lows. Not even pros.
I've been in this a while. All trades posted on ii. What I've left is well in paper loss, but I've remained sanguine throughout. banks have been oversold on fear & uncertainty. Most ongoing issues here are replicated sector-wide. They're also quite finite. Once resolved, we'll see decent rises for all popular UK banks.
By the by, since the layout of ii's site has gone downhill, I increasingly keep in touch with LSE. Far better, cleaner site here. - GL.
SUF,
A nice re-entry from you at 165. If Brexit sees a deal, no question this will be a lot higher again. BARC isn't my main hold & I'm in paper loss - I've far more LLOY & VOD - but encouraging to see today's price action. Never even considered selling at loss. This will be back up to well over 200 later. Only timeframe is in doubt. - GL.
More progress & it'd be a surprise if we don't see a decent rise here. How high & whether we consolidate is another question due to macro-factors. taking nowt for granted, but here's hoping for a finish well above 160. - GLA.
Considering a slight miss on profit forecasts, 60+ seems okay in context & suggests SP was oversold anyway.
Looking ahead, even if LLOY wasn't my biggest holding by far, IMHO, no question this will much higher again later. I'd anticipate a return to 70+ by this time next year at latest & at least a go at 73+ mid-term resistance. When we break that, into the 80s is very doable. But 89p will be avery tough nut to crack as that was a huge resistance level back in 2015. But time will tell.
Targets here as before, ie. at least 70s for my real shares, a bit lower for my SB longs. - GL.
Buy backs are usually positive for SPs if a company isn't also creating myriads of new shares in director bonuses every year. Otherwise, I agree with others, share-holder value may be better served by giving special divis instead. - GL.
Annual profits weaker than expected. Hmmm. That usually means that any sharper rise in SP may be held back a while longer. Such is the market. Also, well-known uncertain macro-factors continue having an impact. Interesting to see if we can finish higher than 60 today. - GLA.
AW100,
Thanks also & well done with TSCO. A stock I too traded weeks ago to VG gain (posted on ii). IMO, no-one gets every call right, bar fantasists. This one was generally viewed a sound defensive stock for years. A main reason for me buying back to the degree I did. VOD now my 2nd largest hold.
Frankly, despite as a holder probably having some subliminal bias to the bullish side, I'd be seriously concerned if most negatives weren't now priced in & 135.08 close in January wasn't a bottom.
Month of May will be huge due to EU decision on Liberty Deal (02/05) & VOD's final results on 14th. If those go our way, a spike in SP seems due. 5G will unlock lots of fresh revenue. If not, hopefully most selling has been seen.
There's also VOD's ambitious 2-year synergy target that could save up to $10bn. All in all, if they can meet targets without cutting yield, there's no question SP will be much higher again. But for all that, I'll still be reducing part of my hold & booking gains at circa 180. The rest will be held for higher... assuming no more serious setbacks, which isn't 100% certain. But little is easy about this game. - GL.
AW100,
You're right. Broker targets are for approx 12 months, subject to change before. Problem is that many brokers are so wide off the mark (for eg. even VOD has targets from 125 to 300), it can lead astray those of less experience & who pay them too much mind. IMO, best ignore, but focus on why you bought something in the first place, unless of course fundamentals change drastically.
But a lot of market behaviour is down to sentiment, rather than logic. Hence SPs get oversold & overbought. Little is rational about this game much of the time. Hence fair value is elusive. FWIW, VOD has been a firm hold for me for a while, though like many I'm well down on my stake. If they keep the yield, I still strongly fancy exiting this with an overall gain, be it some of it after this year. - GL.
I think questions re longer-term affordability of divi are valid. Not because of high yield per se, more so that earnings & revenues are falling. Hence SP slaughtered in recent months. Add the initial expense of 5G (assuming Liberty Deal is approved), increasing competition in key markets bringing down customer prices, & an economic downturn in other key markets, et al, & you have a challenging environment, with poor growth prospects in shorter-term.
If inflation rises faster than expected due to Brexit & other macro-factors, higher rates will follow, making servicing debt more expensive. Whilst some propose asset sales, for eg. mobile masts, IMO, it's always a slippery slope when you decrease book value by selling off important infrastructure to rivals. It's far from an ideal way to reduce debt. Especially if that debt may continue growing anyway.
Now of course some of these factors are fluid & down to variables. Things could pan out differently. VOD may afford to avoid even trimming divi, still reduce debt & all without selling off assets. But it's the general uncertainty that's rattled some investors leading to sharper selling off.
I'm bullish for steady recovery here, but not complacently so in assuming anything is 100% certain. It's one to keep an eye on if significantly invested, as for any stock. - GLA.
Dan,
Nail on the head. I'd rather accept my poor timing or my over-confidence for not holding cash back, even if for years before this was a "defensive stock", than to deflect all self-responsibility. If shorters or MMs had such a hold on this particular stock, then why not any number of other FTSE 100 stocks with far higher SPs & with much smaller daily volumes? If it was so easy to manipulate, they'd do so.
No, this is more about a number of related uncertainties coming together to undermine confidence, including some macro-factors, & concerns about a downturn in some VOD fundamentals.
For all that, this remains a firm hold for me even if it takes well into 2020, unless we get more bad news. - GL .