So the one-stock wonder returned last night. LOL! Pity I missed him. As I stated before, he likes winding folk up, which is a shame & pointless. He also makes some valid points. When he engages with folk he can even be constructive. Credit to him for his call on VOD.
His other calls as I asked him about in Dec on this BB, considering he was so self-congratulatory? Hopeless!
I have one of his trades/calls from December when DOW was near 23K quoted word for word in my posting history. LC's call was DOW under 20K by end of this January. I disagreed with him at the time, but meaningless as I didn't back my call for lack f funds. As I write, DOW futures over 25K & rising. LC was out by over 5,000 points.
That sums it up folks. We all get calls right & the occasional one badly wrong. I've closed gains in TSCO, some in LLOY, CNA, ITV in 2019 (all posted live on ii forum) but hold a massive balls-up with VOD & a few other stakes elsewhere. So it goes. Par for the course, unless one is a fantasist.
Any way back to other business. I'll continue holding this until next significant rally. - GLA.
The next VOD-specific data or else we get a confirmation of a reversal of trend here, so at least well back in the 140s. - Too many false dawns for me to be excited by today's small bounce. - GLA.
Further to my comment on Monday. As well as EU decision on Liberty Deal by 2nd May & VOD Final Year Results about 14th May, before that there'll be results from Vodafone Idea in India. Not sure when, but maybe in March. Just seen reference to it on other VOD BB. They are not optimistic. - Dear Lord.
If those are poor, no need to say what the likely effect on this disaster will be. - GL.
Very true! Until we find a support level, it's anyone's guess how low this can go in the current climate. After all, most of us thought 143.92 was a definite bottom before Friday. How very wrong. - Take care!
Hi Ariel,
Good to hear from you! Kindly note: I've been wrong about this for months. My biggest error since I started trading 02/2009. So I could be wrong again, mindful that no-one buys the exact low bar the very lucky.
If you're looking to buy, please don't let those like me put you off at all. Yield in nearly 10%. ATB whatever you decide!
I'm sorry to say that this garbage will continue falling as there is no support at the moment. Until we have support, bar odd up days, the only direction is down.
CEO's position should also be reviewed at next shareholders meeting as plainly he doesn't have the confidence of the market. Hopeless seems too kind a description. - GLA.
Chicmiller,
I see your angle. FWIW, having hesitated at taking a huge loss at 145 on Friday, I'll wait for a bounce but I'm not selling at 140. However, at the rate this c-r-a-p is being sold down nearly every day let's just hope we don't sink into the 120s. Even though the yield is now almost 10%, it seems the markets has no confidence in it. Daily volume is quite high too, just it's not just retail exiting. All in all, a huge regret here too. - GL.
DJ,
Echo your & all our comments yesterday & before. This stock remains in serious trouble until support level is found. I daren't even speculate where the low may be in view of the constant selling. Sure, we have a day or so of relief where SP rises a penny or more, then back down to new L/T lows.
At the moment it's toxic. My biggest mistake since I started dealing in markets 02/2009. That bad! - GL.
Nothing specific to VOD so far as I can see, though we could get a significant boost from macro-factors, for eg. in China or Brexit in the coming weeks. That aside, IMO, we're now looking more so at technicals. At what level the SP finds sufficient new support for market to see a bottom & a return of greater buying for gradual recovery. Hopefully that'll be above 130, but that's all I can say for now. Mindful that hope is fairly meaningless in the circumstances.
But for now, still a HOLD for me. - GL.
Richy,
Short of unexpected developments or news, probably full year results about 14th May & before that, EU decision on the Liberty Deal by 2nd May. - GL.
Hi Poker,
Indeed. I touched upon some of it briefly in my post at 10.35am. A number of challenges negative macro-factors coming together. However, one can't blame more people for planning to exit on any decent bounce after suffering many months of sharp reversals. I'll most probably join them unless I see compelling new grounds to hold on longer-term. - GL.
DJ,
Maybe so. Top CEOs can make a huge difference to market confidence. Look at the turnaround at MRW's from 2015/16. Then look at ITV's fall soon after they lost a top CEO in Crozier.
Whilst former VOD CEO Colao timed his exit perfectly for seeing the **** was about to hit the fan, there's still a huge question mark over Read. Though he knows the business inside out, he still has everything to prove. So far, it's been beyond poor. - GL.
DJ,
I agree. But with things being as they are I'm just trying to avoid total doom 'n' gloom. For now I'm meditating on reduced targets. They had been to sell from 180+ & higher for the rest for my stake. Looks like I may well start reducing far lower than 180. - No advice intended to anyone else. - GL.
Casshy,
It's bad, but unless the yield is slashed, I see no way this will go as low as £1. Yield is already about 10%. - GL.
Jonjo,
Far worse than that. Almost 10 year low! No wonder even DanielH with his regular "strong buy" reccs has disappeared.
If I wasn't past my personal pain barrier (I no longer expect much), I'd be totally sick with this stock. Personally speaking, my biggest disappointment in markets for years. Now just waiting to review matters when we see the next bounce. Look forward to exiting sooner than my original targets. - GL.
Excuse typos. - Cheers.
GBern,
You litter your post with uncalled for abuse, then want constructive comments, which you won't be reading anyway? ;o) ]
No-one knows what will be decided re Liberty deal. Obviously it's key for opening up new L/T streams of revenues for VOD. Until then, there is indeed a mountain to climb. Debt is huge, competition increasing, growth prospects poor. Economic challenges facing the EU, a key market for VOD, is adding to uncertainty. Not least, future guidance was hit by new accounting rules (ie. IRS 15) which means that revenues from UK handsets have to be excluded.
I'm no sure how high this can go in the foreseeable future, but a steady recovery to 160-180 is by no means inconceivable as it bounced from 142+ to 170+ only in early December. Timing will depend on economic macro-factors improving elsewhere & that's out of VOD's hands. But technically, a bounce to well above 160 is by no means inconceivable when sentiment improves.
Personally, despite FCF covering divi, I'd prefer a temporary measured, dividend cut after this year's final divi to reduce VOD's debt quicker, as opposed to too many mast sales. I think a very high yield now justifies it & markets tend to respond favourably to such moves. CEO Read is also in the process of further rationalisation,expected to save €1.2 billion.
For now, what will be will be for those of us still stuck here. I'll not make rash moves. I'll review taking a hit after a bounce, not after a steep fall. Admittedly that may be some while away. - But to each their own.
CAKU,
Agreed. It's standard practice. Convertible bonds issued in 2016 to avoid taking on more debt. The bought back later & shares put into treasury to avoid dilution of SP. VOD do it frequently. - GL.
Like pigs fly. You caught 100K shares near the bottom & decided to tell us 48 hours later on Sunday night. Lol!
H-hi,
I'm not sure what volume you refer to, but yesterday's for VOD was far from "tiny". Over 165M v daily average under 80M. Patently some huge selling yesterday. - GL.