"wonder what LLOY's share price will be with a hard brexit? I have no idea but could it retrace below 50p or stay above?"
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Hi Commercia,
Most uncertain as LLOY's business model is UK-specific, so it'd depend on affect on UK property prices & how much is priced in. If everything fell back, so would we. However, investment banks like BARC seem more likely to be affected by a very hard Brexit as they have more business links to EU.
No less important a consideration is how well could LLOY recover if we have a deal & looking ahead to post-PPI in August? Mindful that we saw a lot of resistance at 73+ during the previous bullish periods in 2017 & 2018, if we could get past that, it'd be huge. Very L/T resistance is circa 89+ going back to mid-2015.
LLOY my biggest hold after VOD & I wont be selling cheaply should we see a reversal. - GL.
Not good, but also not all bad despite more losses, which seem partly priced in. One positive, EBITDA up 16.3% as cost synergies start kicking in. - GL. Catch all later.
https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/vodafone-idea-q3-net-loss-widens-to-rs-5004-6-crore-loses-35-mln-users/67869136
Dan,
I agree. Like I imagine many others here (hopefully), I'm profitable with real shares since starting 02/2009. Whilst shares limit PIs to buying or selling their stake, but not shorting to catch downside, they afford greater margin of error for reasons you cite. Get a buy in shares mistimed &, as long as one bought below L/T resistance levels, one can hold for ages at no added cost, picking up yield, until recovery or much nearer to it.
Though SBs also pay divis for long positions, there are holding costs. Those can accrue over time, even though low rates means charges aren't too punitive. If I'd never touched SBs (I began 02/2011), I'd have been better off due to being over-leveraged. I agree it's a form of gambling, though so are stock markets in general. No sure thing. But the criteria behind buying shares or taking a long SB position in the same stock is little different. It comes down to personal judgement & accountability.
To be clear: I don't disagree with Fleccy on some points. More so on the degree of it across the FTSE as opposed to AIM.
Markets have always been stacked against smaller participants. Unlike us, large funds have vast resources, hedgies go long or short, they access up-to-date info (resources like Bloomberg terminal at $25K a year subscription), employ HFTs, dark pools, etc. But I don't accept MMs meaningfully manipulate large volume FTSE SPs for reasons stated.
Whenever we see protracted downtrends in premium FTSE stocks, it's usually fuelled by disappointing data & negative sentiment. Also, whenever sentiment predominates, be it bearish or bullish, stocks tend to get badly oversold or overbought. I agree that's exacerbated by algos & HFTs. But corrections are usually only a matter of time. That's verifiable from past observation when we've seen continuing falls or rises on relatively little fresh news.
IMO, it's not about who's better. I'm glad for Fleccy to see his approach as better. That won't affect my approach. Ego is of no value in this game. To a degree, it's subjective. For eg. I tend to feel that if I thought manipulation across the FTSE was rife & it frequently affected my financial health, why would I continue to partake in such a scam? So whenever I call it wrong, as here, I see only my own culpability in misreading markets.
But to each their own. What's more sure is that most of us can improve & try to continue learning in this game.
Re technicals: some of it holds less value than other aspects. But there's much to be said for identifying support or resistance levels, & checking if it's backed by larger volume. Also keeping an eye on moving averages for changes in trend.
As Henry Kaufman said: "There are 2 kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing & those who know EVERYTHING". - GL.
"I actually think it's easier to force a stock up or down now, you only need to trigger the algo's, looking at momentum trade opportunities and they'll do lots of the leg work. The best time for a company like Vod, would be post ex dividend, with a good dose of negative press releases. I'm not currently bothered if the price rises in the short term, I obviously missed an opportunity to buy lower, but overall i'm happy with my buy prices. Glass half full."
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Fleccy,
I agree algo's make markets more volatile. That doesn't make it easier to manipulate SPs for advantage as nearly every professional trade on LSE is algo-driven.
For eg. whenever I buy or sell, I check London Stock Exchange to compare other brokers execution prices. I spot my trade even before I see if the amount of shares tallies. Because nearly every other trade anywhere near mine is an algo. Now what stops algos competing against each other? Nothing. Large funds work for themselves & their lucrative clients, not for other large funds. If they perform poorly, they lose clients.
For me what's driven VOD's SP down is a number of unsettling fundamental negatives & uncertainties, some global, coming together & affecting sentiment. My paper loss is down to me for not being more circumspect about VOD's debt & poor growth prospects. Hence not meeting forecasts.
As we know, even if a premium stock like AAPL fails to meet market expectations, it ill-matters how much profit they make below those expectations. SP will still tank. Reason for JD's paper losses in VOD are 100% down to JD. Nothing else.
For those who believe otherwise, you are of course perfectly free to blame other factors, like manipulation or MMs. But that's one issue we'll have to agree to disagree on. - GL.
"I agree, corrupt is too strong a word, manipulated isn't too strong a word in my opinion. There are many ways that the big players can collude, without tipping their hand to the regulators. Individual Stocks and sectors, imo, are targeted by the big players, for big falls, or large increases. I've lost count of the times I've heard, you cant move this stock, or that stock, or that sector, it's just to big, etc, etc. There are loads of examples of manipulation, where the perpetrators have been prosecuted."
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Hi Fleccy,
Indeed. I've already referred to large hedgies being one example of forces powerful enough to affect some SPs via HFTs or even dark pool trading. In latter, reporting of large sell orders is delayed to avoid tanking SPs & allowing exit at best prices. I agree about the best way to beat the market's vagaries, but I disagree as regards how easy you make manipulation seem or its prevalence today.
A lot of attempted manipulation ends up unsuccessful for a few reasons. Hedgies also compete against each other. Read up about the horrendous losses some powerful hedge funds have made when they called it wrong. More than a few were wiped out, literally. If manipulation was as easy peasy as some think, no hedgie would see such outcomes.
Mind also that whilst a large hedge fund may be using any trick to try to bring down a SP, OTOH, large pension & long-only investment funds can buy big at anytime. That can counter a large short move. Hence why it's easier to manipulate small-cap AIM than large cap/volume FTSE stocks as favoured by large investors.
To my understanding, MMs will struggle to move any large volume, liquid FTSE SP meaningfully. Not least as their input has decreased. Buy & sell orders are now matched up electronically. To quote from recent link. GL.
“The LSE’s main electronic order book, SETS, is designed to pool liquidity for all investors. This is technologically a far cry from the brokers and jobbers (the colloquial term for trading floor market makers) in the old days, and facilitates rapid order-driven trading. The LSE does, however, also offer some facilities for larger investors seeking to take positions in illiquid stock.”
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2018/11/09/the-truth-about-market-makers/
Thanks & you're welcome. I try to be objective &, aside from idle banter on days when we're all a bit brassed off, I'm always glad to help as I can, just as others have helped me.
IMO, a lot of posts on BBs, no slight intended on anyone, boil down to letting off steam. Understandable. That's not helped by occasional wind-up merchants who gloat & try to stir things up. When people are well down financially, no wonder hackles are easily raised. I've been drawn in myself.
I agree with you about self-accountability in markets. Frankly, I've never seen it any other way. I'm well down here for lacking patience when buying back & assuming that past trends would hold firm as they'd done for years before. Acknowledging errors helps us continue learning.
As you indicate, it's not uncommon when investments go wrong or are mistimed for PIs to seek scapegoats. They blame MMs, shorters, the CEO, the US, etc. It occurs on most BBs. Anyone bar themselves. In fact, FTSE trades are traded via London Stock Exchange's SETS, a carefully regulated electronic system that matches up buy & sell orders.
It's in no-one interests to have bent markets. Pension funds & other large investors would soon exit their money & park it elsewhere.
But whilst, IMO, markets aren't corrupt, neither are they that efficient for a few reasons. Otherwise SPs would be less volatile, be broadly in keeping with fair value, instead of frequently being oversold or overbought on sentiment.
Computer algo-driven HFTs tend to exacerbate volatility. Global stocks can be affected by any number of issues. No wonder even directors get badly caught out when buying & most analysts can't find even remote consensus on price targets, even though all have up-to-date info & huge research resources.
In VOD's case, negative sentiment has dominated recently for a few challenging reasons coming together. Some are specific to VOD, such as concerns over debt & poor growth prospects in short-term, Liberty Deal in the balance. But also uncontrollable macro-factors, for eg. forecasts of economic downturn across EU, uncertain Brexit ramifications, et al. - Cheers.
H-hi,
Much agree. It seems unlikely that there are or were no significant shorts on any stock in a months-long downtrend. More so that they were undeclared for either of said reasons.
IMHO, this is a flaw with markets. Not only should ALL major shorts be declared. But that info should be available to all investors. This game can be hard enough as it is for the average PI or trader. - GL. .
Hi,
Re your query at 13.56. To clarify: very few PIs have enough leverage to take out very significant short or long positions (SBs or CFDs). Certainly as far as affecting SPs of large volume FTSE stocks goes. Even collectively, should any still be short on VOD at near 10-year lows, which would be surprising. It takes considerable financial resources to affect FTSE SPs.
Powerful hedge funds with at least hundreds of millions at their disposal are quite different.
It may well be that some hedgies held undeclared shorts on VOD until recently. Undeclared as either below 0.5%, or simply that they chose not to publish it on public financial websites. No surprise if some closed their shorts near recent 10-year lows, which would increase buying momentum & lift SP as we've seen to a small degree. That might also explain some of the higher volumes seen last week. - GL.
I can only welcome the rise due to holding huge paper losses here, but let’s be clear about this: major fund shorts are only disclosed if over 0.5%. However, they have no obligation to disclose short positions to sites like this even if over 0.5%.
This doesn't mean that short position are only day traders. There is nothing stopping me or anyone else from taking out huge shorts on VOD & holding them for months, as long as we have the leverage. However, it won't affect SPs of large volume FTSE stocks. - GL.
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BH4HKS39/
Daniel & Moniman,
Thanks. I appreciate one can view it like that, but what matters to us is of course FTSE trades & effect on SP. These director buys in context with some previous ones at much higher prices are, IMO, far from that bullish for VOD. Particularly at these very cheap prices & near 10 year lows. Hence no impact on SP or sentiment. - GL.
Monimam.
Re the 200K shares Director buy today? I'm seeing 40,000 in UK & 14,000 ADRs in US. - GL.
Thanks. Indeed. We all need some luck with the way decisions go that are out of our hands, especially re the Liberty Deal. But whilst the dividend seems safe for this year's final in June & for the foreseeable future after, even if it was cut at some point later there are a number of views that consider that would be by no means a disaster as it'd bring down debt even faster. I tend to agree.
Anyway, a recent article that may find favour with those more patient, who are determined to hold out for much higher SP values to return. - GL.
https://uk.webfg.com/news/broker-recommendations/vodafone-still-attractive-even-if-dividend-is-cut---analysts--3711043.html
Good to know you're staying resilient notwithstanding more setbacks here. I did briefly wonder whether even you might have finally given up after Q3's disappointment. ;o)
Jesting aside, I agree it'd make no sense whatsoever to bail out now at near 10-year lows, or even slightly higher. Not unless one was 100% convinced that VOD would never recover. I'm very far from such negativity.
Like many others not newly in VOD, I've already collected decent yield for last year. Another couple of years of similar & I could exit at overall profit well below my highest leveraged purchase, at over 200. Real shares bought at 175+ & 198+.
Despite some annoyance expressed in daily idle banter on this BB, in reality I don't take hits lightly. Not unless I feel it's absolutely necessary. As stated, I'll continue holding, mindful that we may not see any huge SP moves until closer to EU decision on Liberty Deal & final results in May, though a boost before that from a good Brexit outcome not ruled out.
I now expect to be holding some of my VOD into 2020. But as long as next results hold no nasty surprises & the Liberty Deal goes through, a steady recovery ahead is by no means far-fetched. - GL.
SadAct,
Sorry to read about your CLLN experience as for all others who got badly burnt there. But encouraging to read you've already made back some 50%. Credit as due. That gives you an excellent prospect of getting the rest back & more.
But CLLN yet another reminder that even with FTSE 100 stocks, little is guaranteed. Many FTSE stocks hold lots of debt, huge pension deficits & have poor growth prospects over shorter-term. When things go from bad to worse no wonder some of the massive exits we've see.
In fact, if interest rates weren't so low since soon after 2008's crisis, I wonder how many of us might have avoided markets & gone for safer options to park our cash? Just thinking aloud regarding myself.
Not that I don't enjoy this game most of the time, but certainly not the stress of seeing major reversals to finances that might have been far better employed elsewhere. FWIW, I'm far from rich, so this isn't a hobby for me personally.
I'm confident VOD will see better times if the Liberty Deal is approved by EU on 2nd May & when economic macro-factors improve, not least key markets to VOD in the EU. Timeframe for the latter, however, remains in doubt. Hence I'm prepared for L/T hold & have been going back many weeks.
Would I take a hit on any strong bounce? I rarely do, but I will consider it due to the huge debt & doubt about growth prospects. But by bounce I'm talking about a lot higher than 140s. This was briefly 170+ only as recently as early December. We shall see. - ATB!
Hi SadAct,
Thanks. You sound like me regarding your general approach to markets. I too prefer to book gains & then bide my time. Whilst I've not made a penny profit from SBs in real terms, having handed all back & more, I do hold a profitable real share account going back to 02/2009. On ii threads I've many short-term successful trades posted live, VOD included. That approach will continue as opportunities arise.
I admit I'm holding this ONLY as I've been trapped from mid-2018 after badly over-estimating previous technicals (support levels, etc.), even though they'd held good for years before. A huge miscalculation on my part which requires ample patience to see an improvement in results & sentiment. Possibly post-2019.
Looking further ahead, I also want to build a bigger cash position due to weakness of UK government & that the lead up to the next GE may well see considerable selling across the FTSE. Hopefully that won't be before the mandatory GE date in 2022, which may give me time to book more gains on most current holds: VOD, BARC, ITV, LLOY & IQE, having exited others recently. I'd then return to UK markets after outcome of next GE. That's the general plan. - Regards.
FTSE 100 back up to over 7000 as I write, but little obvious divi re-investment going on here going by VOD's SP. Same as before. Poor. - GL.
Excuse word omission: Will hold & review exit targets after substantial bounce. - Cheers.
Hi SadAct & Longish,
SA, A VG first post & I agree. TD's trading desk seemed more efficient than ii's. I've compared some of my buy prices with ii with those on London Stock Exchange at same time & ii's seem behind the curve.
Ditto the protracted drag of transferring to another broker, which leaves some clients in limbo with no access to their stocks for 3 to 4 months. That bad! Not something I'd want to risk in this climate in case we saw a post Brexit deal bounce & a missed chance to book some gains. I have, however, considered moving my stocks later due to ii's less efficient trading desk. Frankly, I doubt if a discount broker like iWeb or X-O would fare any worse.
SadAct, IMO, you'll be fine with buying VOD at 144. Yield is nearly 10% & the bottom can't be far off. No-one buys exact low, bar the very lucky & fantasists. My lowest buy here is 175+. It was than considered to be a sound "defensive stock" with excellent yield & had been for a few years. What could possible go so badly wrong? Such is the nature of this unpredictable game.
Ditto for holders of BT, CNA, ITV, et al.. Though I've collected a lot of yield, obviously I'm still well down! VOD my 2nd largest holding. Will & review exit targets after any substantial bounce, probably closer to next ex-date around June.
GL to both.
Hi Longish,
Their trading site seems decent enough in my experience. I was transferred over from TD with myriad others last year when ii took over. ii offer cash bonus for new clients transferring from other brokers. There are no exit fees, which is useful. All fine... bar quarterly fee of £22.50, redeemable up to 12 months later if used via their £10 commission charges. TD imposed no such quarterly fees.
Their discussion BBs seem equally split between focus on L/T investments & trades. However, since ii changed their site layout last year many posters visit less, others have lefft. Their old format used to be similar to LSE. It was great. Now? IMO, a definite downgrade as regards the layout. Not nearly as user-friendly.
I post much less there than I used to, though I keep in touch for a few respected, very well-informed posters. - Regards.
Longish,
I'm with ii for my real share account. One thing I will say for them, divis ALWAYS paid on the day & before market opens. Mine in before 8am. - Divis for my VOD SBs already collected on the actual ex-date.
Volume high yesterday so hopefully we can make some steady progress from now until next ex-date in June. - GL.