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Hi Longish,
Thanks. VG points & I don't disagree. But I also have to weigh-up the risk of more bad news, with another sharp SP drop, against freeing-up more cash & more leveraged margin for buying & trading other stocks. This is by far my biggest mistimed error. I've traded far better elsewhere: LLOY, SBRY, ITV, UKX, et al. That's why I'll only hold after results on 14th May if any negatives are already priced in, or else we see a beat on estimates.
I know nothing is guaranteed anywhere. But I've reason to believe I can make my money work better for me elsewhere if markets sell this sharply down next week. I mean by more than 4p to 5p.
I only rarely take huge hits after long consideration & after giving ample time for recovery. A poor market reaction next week will probably be quite enough for me & I shall buy something else same day as a recovery play, possibly buying back more LLOY. We'll see & NO advice intended to others. - Regards.
Hi Longish,
Thanks again for taking the time to expand on that. Much appreciated.
Still mindful of that, come 14th May, like the market, I shall review & react to what's presented by VOD on the day. Whether to hold all I have, reduce, or exit altogether. Anything significantly worse than expected & I know I won't hang about. I'll crystallise at least some of my losses. But I guess you all know that as a few of my comments over recent weeks have indicated as much. - Regards.
Hi Longish,
Thanks for clarification. They all seem to say "preliminary" when initial RNS's are released. For eg. when SBRY (which I've sold & bought back since) released their results 1st May , their site said "preliminary". A fuller presentation came later same day.
If the results really aren't "final", why even release the RNS & why do markets respond so decisively? I think the BoD business is just a formality. If companies were presenting skewed results or withholding vital data on the day of results , surely FCA would be investigating? - Regards.
Dan,
As far as I can see, all company results are described as preliminary. Though they're usually released before markets open, they are always full results as regards key figures & data. However, a much fuller presentation, with more detail from CEO, usually follows a bit later. - Regards.
Hi Toze,
You're welcome. Let's just hope this sees a steady rise before actual ex-date on 6th June as SP will fall back temporarily by 7.9p on that date. - Regards.
Typo: But we'll see what the 14th brings. - GL.
Hi Moniman,
Regardless of the BB's general view, I'll act accordingly on 14th May. A beat on expectations, I hold on. Another disappointment & I'll look at other options. I hold shares & longs. I rarely take hits. I run a profitable account with real shares. But if we get a downer on the 14th, I believe I can make my money back quicker elsewhere. Then I shall at least reduce my positions here at some cost. That's my mindset. I have to do what's right for me only.
But we'll see what the 24th brings. - GL.
Toze,
Yes. Every 1000 shares held pays £79. Payment on 12th July, so a few weeks after ex-date. - GL.
https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/food-and-drug-retailers/sainsburys/dividends
Bought back at 215.96.
Reasons: possible double-bottom reversal with 216 closing low seen 25th April, though it went lower intraday. Those were lowest levels for 16 years. Also, after rising to 237.19 highs on 1st May, falls again look overdone. Especially compared to TSCO & MRW. If I’m wrong, will hold longer-term for target circa 230 to 235+ again.
NB: SBRY goes ex-date on 6th June for a handy 7.9p for any inconvenience of holding longer. - GLA.
Shls3834,
It's a good buy for some with risk-appetite to ride out further volatility. But not for all. If it only falls 7p on poor results on 14th May, that's 5% of your investment down immediately. If that'd bother you, then you have your answer. Anymore than 7p & say no more, unless you're prepared to be patient.
Reality is, no-one knows what's best for anyone else's risk appetite. Directors have bought here many times & SP still went down soon after. So your money, your call, your risk. Ditto for anyone else. No guarantees of anything in this game in the short-term. - GL.
Chris,
Like I say, no-one gets the bottom &, FWIW, I consider your buy on Friday to be a good one for those with a bit of patience to see out the current volatility. That's regardless of whether it goes a bit lower. - Regards & GL.
"Sold at 235 (buy 213.89). Over 10% profit in a few days is more than decent enough. Certainly by my standards.
Other reasons probably immaterial, but I’m also mindful that today’s 229.60 open leaves a technical gap below from yesterday’s 222.50 close. That seems fillable later."
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Re my comment above. FWIW, that gap at 222.50 was filled on Thursday, then closed lower Friday at 220.30. Mindful that SBRY's lowest close for 16 years was 216 on 25th April, we could be headed for a retest of said lows & a double-bottom reversal pattern. usually bullish. That would make SBRY a strong possible re-buy for me fairly soon, accepting that no-one gets the exact low, bar from luck. - GLA.
WorldGoRound,
Much agree. There are no guarantees anywhere, mindful that many FTSE stocks hold huge debt, have massive pension deficits & many are ever exposed to global variables & fundamentals going from bad to worse, which tends to spook even more investors into bailing. Such is this game.
That said, my only losses come from leverage. Significant losses. But with real shares I've made VG gains since started 02/2009.
Point taken about investment trusts. Been on my radar as a likely option for later. - Regards.
One trade at 08.51 sold nearly 14 million shares for over £14.5m. How bad must they see things getting here, mindful that even big holders can get it wrong? GLA.
Dan,
Indeed. They're merely buying back MCB shares to avoid further price dilution. But even standard share buybacks are no 100% guarantee to boost SP significantly if macro-factors are unkind. LLOY has been running a share buyback for weeks & their SP bogged down.
Despite widely shared disappointment here, there's little point in expecting too much change until 14th May. This has been a poor trade for me, as for most. But some you win, some you lose. FWIW, sold my SBRY shares bought 6 days ago at 213.89 for 235 early today. 10% profit, but lots of good luck involved too. We all need it, as we will here on the 14th. But inevitably we all make our fair share of poorer buys, too. So it goes. - Regards.
Lunatic,
I'll not be signing. If large investment & hedge funds couldn't hedge their larger long positions by occasional shorting through severe downturns, there'd be bigger carnage & greater sell-offs. Many funds occasionally holds both longs & shorts in same stocks. Shorting plays a key part in overall balance of markets. - GL.
Excuse typos: "Exactly that happened in early December 2018 with SP touching 170+, when less than a month earlier it was down to 143+." - Cheers.
OFAH & TLWilliams,
Agreed. OFAH summed it up well. FTSE is not to be equated with low-volume AIM, which has far less regulation & more MM input.
As for Dan's valid query: I'm mindful that when VOD bought back MCB shares during previous years, SPs were quite high in some periods. For eg. about 200 in 2017.
I think this prolonged downtrend that saw near 10-year lows of 131+ in March has a few well known reasons behind. It's very hard to rig SPs of large volume FTSE stocks as almost anytime a large investment fund can start buying to see spikes in SP. Exactly thappened in early December 2018 with SP touching 170+, when less than a month earlier it was down to 143+.
Too many variables for large cap SPs to be rigged for months on end. - Regards.
Sold at 235 (buy 213.89). Over 10% profit in a few days is more than decent enough. Certainly by my standards.
Other reasons probably immaterial, but I’m also mindful that today’s 229.60 open leaves a technical gap below from yesterday’s 222.50 close. That seems fillable later.
My sell no reflection on stock’s potential. I entered & exited promptly from a trader’s motive. Hope this stocks continues to see steady recovery for L/T holders. - GLA.
Mikey,
Since the downtrend from bounce to 170+ seen early December to 131+ support early March, highest VOD close was 146.76 on 21st March. What's surely evident to all is if we're to stand any chance of breaking 146+ & consolidating gains, we need a VG report on 14th May. Without that, we could find ourselves range-bound for a long time yet. Just reality. SP needs bullish new data to get a strong fillip. - Regards.