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Hi Dan,
If they're only making predictions, no problem whatsoever. However, since that Times article we've seen large exits from VOD both here & in US. Volumes well above average. That suggests large funds reducing. Would large funds reduce massively based on any financial journo's predictions alone? If those "predictions" prove to be spot on after all, which isn't certain, I'll leave that for others to deduce.
Of course no-one to blame but ourselves. But BBs are also partly about looking at wider aspects of how markets operate, including debate & closer examination of large volume sell-offs supposedly based merely on a financial journo's bearish views. - Regards & GL.
Hi Finley,
I agree with Fleccy on this point. My understanding is that it contravenes FCA regulations to leak vital info to any select interests pre-results. ig funds or whoever. It's a serious offence. VOD have been accused of similar behaviour before. The problem is proving it as the sources can always deny it & instead claim that they put two & two together to arrive at certain conclusions, such as a severe dividend cut.
But assuming that sources like The Times are 100% correct that divi really is slashed, this seems like malpractice & puts insiders in VOD in a very poor light, not for the first time.
Let's hope that someone has blown his trumpet precipitously & is red-face tomorrow, though I suspect not due to huge volumes today. Regards.
Small sliver of hope: 131+ support tested on 4th March, re-tested a few times today & still holding... just. So all down to NR tomorrow. If markets are impressed enough with his guidance, regardless of divi-cuts, we could regain today's losses. If not, then how low this falls seems anyone's guess. - GLA.
Rubber-Duck,
It wouldn't be too late. Ex-date 6th June. You could buy as late as around 4.29 PM on 5th June & still qualify. Deadline is until markets close on 5th June. - Regards.
EurekaPowers,
I agree with Andy. However, though my opinion holds no value for anyone else, what I will say is this: you've held since 195, so quite a while. If you've looked at this from the view of a longer-term interest, I'd think very hard about bailing at loss in your circumstances, even if it goes lower.
We are at near-10 year lows. The macro climate is dire! Nearly everything across FTSE 100 is falling. Even if it goes lower into the 120s & dividend is cut, if you're prepared to hold longer than a few months, there's a decent probability that this will gradually recover over time. VOD remains a huge player in this sector.
Just my view, but your money, your call. This can be a very hard game, but it can also reward the more patient. All the best!
In view of the falls, it'd make more sense if it was a huge sell of 27 million shares at 138, but reported late at 10.43 AM. Looking on London Stock Exchange, at the exact time that trade was announced, all other trades were at 133+, not 138. So as Poker says, another trade reported late. All a bit dodgy frankly. Has there been a leak from VOD? Not the first time this outfit may be accused of leaking key info to big players before results given to market. GLA.
Mikey & OFAH,
If reports are proven & that's not certain, my understanding is same as Mikey's. Divi slashed now. If this CEO is already breaking pledges recently made, how can he be trusted? He can't! But that remains to be seen, though markets is exiting this in substantial numbers today, so they think reports will be true. Maybe more leaks from VOD? Hmm. GL.
Mikey,
It looks grim. No question of it. Best I hope for: poor forecasts & any cuts in yield are priced in. If we can keep above 131+ seen 4th March, also near 10-year lows, that may have to do for now. If we lose that support, short-term at least, it'll be an expensive disaster for many here. There may be no quick way back from the 120s & many holders will have had enough. - Regards.
OFAH,
Have a look at links posted yesterday. POSSIBLY (?) VOD's dividend to be slashed & huge falls in earnings & revenues forecast. At this rate, we could be lucky to avoid the 120s. Looks fairly hopeless for the foreseeable future! I may well exit some on my stake tomorrow. - Regards.
Hi Longish,
Thanks. Likewise no decision here before 14th until we see the finer details. Though I'll be ready to act if we've a seriously bad reaction early on, especially with my leveraged positions. My shares at 175+ & 198+, I'm still considering.
Certainly agree with others that severe divi-cuts, if it happens, can occasionally be seen very favourably by markets as a proactive measure to reduce debt faster. I said as much on ii this morning. So who knows?
FWIW, when TSCO cancelled their dividend altogether for a few years on 8th January, 2015, their SP closed on the day at 209.25. Day before it was 182. A rise of 27p as markets liked their recovery plan. So much depends on various key factors. But if there's another sell-off, that probably sees me either reduce leveraged longs or exit altogether. I've said that for a few weeks now. My money can work better for me elsewhere.
So a huge day for many of us here, but to each their own always applies. - Regards.
As with Johnson's Times link, this doesn't make for great reading for those of us holding. Best hope seems to be that if these quite awful forecasts are nearly accurate, we can only hope they really are priced in. Otherwise, we face a further beating on Tuesday. - GLA.
"Vodafone's results preview: what does the City expect?
Vodafone is expected to report a 19% fall in annual earnings, to 9.5 cents per share, while revenue is forecast to fall 3.7% on an annual basis, to €44.9 billion. It has beaten earnings forecasts in five of the last eight reports, but missed on revenue forecasts in five of the last eight.
Earnings estimates fell steadily throughout 2018, bottoming out at around eight cents in early 2019, down almost 50% from the 2018 peak. Since then they have recovered, but the cautious outlook persists."
https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/shares-news/vodafone-share-price--what-to-expect-from-annual-results-190507
"Anyway I'm done with the slanderous P&Dump site. LSE should ashamed of themselves by abusing it's users in that way - not their attempt at ouiting rampers but their nazi-like termination of innocents as collateral."
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Hi Velo,
I couldn't agree more. Beyond the humour engendered, I for one was genuinely surprised to know such databases even existed for BB posters active on large cap FTSE stocks.
Needless to say, both prolific rampers & derampers, not least those participating in group-attack strategies that seek to affect SPs of low-volume AIM stocks, should of course always be outed. Plainly that's not what this database is about. Most of the aliases I've seen would be the last people I'd consider to be serial rampers.
I too think that sources connected to this site have behaved in a way that's ill-conceived & disrespectful to those who give their time to voice well-considered opinions about stocks, whilst trying to be objective. - Regards.
Hi Dan,
Thanks. No problem. Must say that, like yourself, I've only rarely ever used exampled trigger words. Hardly any on VOD's BB. But for those often employing slogans like "cheap as chips", they may consider using instead, "sounds like, sheep as ships". :o) That should outfox these self-appointed watchdog blighters.
If that rampers database was remotely fair, neither of us would be anywhere near top 20. Ditto Nick Read. Presumably his mind is focused towards the 14th.
IMO, not that my view is valid: my past optimism is diminished. Whilst I don't anticipate anything exceptionally bad, nor do I feel confident that we'll see a significantly bullish result. Not for a while yet. So we may well find SP stuck in recent range, or even fall back a few pence. At least, that's what I'm prepared for.
As mentioned to Longish, it's not just VOD. The general market climate & mood is looking distinctly gloomier. Lower summer volumes can add to volatility. FTSE down again.
Needless to say, I sincerely hope I'm very wrong & we get fairly bullish results to lift us at least closer to 150s. But a huge week ahead for all of us. - Regards & GL.
Hi Dan,
I've never had any issues with Velo. No history between us. I welcome his contributions as from most others. I think he's very much on the right track with his views, but the likely "trigger words" are probably much more extensive.
What seems more sure is that these self-appointed watchdogs don't operate on ii. For eg. the more prolific posters on there who frequently clearly amp smaller-volume AIM stocks do not appear on said list. OTOH, neither of us are rampers. Every one on this BB will see that.
By the by, I've since seen that I've knocked you off 2nd place in the rampers league. LOL! I'm now 2nd. What for? Last night's comments? At this rate I'll be taking over Longish's top spot. Plainly ridiculous &, as said, their algorithms need some serious work to have any credibility.
Regards & GL. Catch you & all a bit later.
Hi Velo,
Many thanks for taking time to explain things as well as you have. A very informative post. I suspected this kind of stuff went on. But I didn't know it'd apply to posters on BBs of large volume FTSE stocks whose SPs are, thankfully, impossible to manipulate via BB comments. I'd have though these "pump & dump", self-appointed watchdogs would be better off spending their time watching out for dubious groups of posters active on lower volume AIM BBs.
The irony of someone like me being No 3 on said list is that I rarely use those trigger words in my comments &, for more than a few weeks now, I've gone from being fairly optimistic here to distinctly less so. My latter comments even admit a reduction may be considered if results on the 14th are worse than expected, ie. not priced in.
I'd respectfully suggest to these watchdogs that their algos require much further development to be reach levels of credible accuracy. Meantime, they really shouldn't take too many liberties with judging certain people to be rampers or derampers. as is applicable.
Thanks again. - Regards.
Hi Longish,
Maybe so. LC isn’t daft. But surely there should also be a derampers league table. LC would comfortably win that one with just one night's work. Probably less than that. An hour's of his posts would do it.
But such tables point to more sinister possibilities ahead. In future, government programs scouring BBs for key words used in comments & then placing posters on special category databases for future surveillance. Will probably happen one day, if not already.
FTSE getting thrashed again & I can't say I'm looking forward to the 14th. Really poor macro-climate for markets. Just hope US & China find a compromise tomorrow to improve sentiment in general. Regards.
Hi Longish,
Thanks for posting that so-called "rampers" league table. LOL! Best laugh I've had today. Must say I'm a bit miffed to be behind you & Daniel. Can't imagine why? But seriously... what a crock it seems. What's it all about & to what end? Who's doing the compiling? I assume this applies for other BBs. Not serious questions on my part. ;o) Regards.
Kingrav,
If we do go lower, it'll be as much to do with the general slump across FTSE. Markets can be sentiment-driven & irrational in either direction. But it won't have any bearing on my position here. If I need to, I'll collect yield & hold patiently for target. - GL.
WorldGoRound,
One accepts one won't get in at the bottom. No surprise it's fallen lower. For now, I keep an eye on price moves, but remain unfazed. Most of the FTSE hammered. UKX dropped 120 pts yesterday alone.
Yield here will compensate for holding longer than wished. But if we see a decent rise before ex-date on 6th June, I may well take more profit. Will review later. - GL.
Moniman,
If we have a poor market reaction on the 14th, I imagine it'll get worse. More anger, more ad hominem type posts. Understandably, folk aren't happy. The last thing they need is clever Charlies (I'm not referring to any 1 poster) winding them up. Ditto for any other BB.
From my angle, I'm 100% responsible for my poor position here & any losses stemming from it. - GL.