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AW100,
Markets feel the same way. Even with some broken assurances from CEO, divi-cuts & falls in revenue should've been priced in. But I've since read some scathing reports of NR's performance. One in the Independent was very damning. He lacked conviction, they said. No way would markets buy into his guidance, etc.
Plainly this is a huge job. It needs a top CEO with a proven VG track record for turning around struggling behemoths like VOD. At least with Colao the City thought VOD were in safe hands for all the challenges ahead. I don't think that applies anymore.
A top CEO will immediately add value to a stock's SP. Not least as a key factor is rebuilding damaged sentiment & restoring market confidence. A good CFO doesn't necessarily make a good CEO. Markets remain unconvinced by NR. - Regards.
Obviously all in figures in millions in my previous post. Cheers.
Hi Velo,
You'd think so, but then we see the last 4 days of volume. Huge. Over 168, 181, 128, & 114m. VOD's daily avg. is 84m. Big funds continue reducing, which is a damning indictment of the lack of confidence they have in NR's forward guidance. They're unconvinced.
That volume appears to be dropping, so maybe a floor soon. But until the falls on above average volume stop, hard to be sure of a support level. Can't be far off, one imagines.
Markets get it wrong occasionally, but they're never badly wrong for very long. - Regards.
Dan,
Thanks & you're welcome. Maybe so? But whether OFAH is male or female, this can be a hard game emotionally , as well as financially, for those unprepared. John Maynard Keynes summed it up well decades ago, to quote: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." He would know as he was also a trader using leverage, as well as a top economist.
Whoever we are & as good as one may be, this game can give any of us a kick in the balls almost anytime. In VOD's case with BOTH a severe divi-cut & subsequent falls in SP, it seems more akin to a kick in the balls & then one in the teeth. Financially very bruising.
Just hope all of us see an outcome here that we can look back on later without any lasting regrets. I'm sure I'll review matters again after XD on 6th June & EU decision on Liberty deal. - Regards.
Hi Dan,
It doesn't matter one iota what others say about you or anyone, unless it's at least constructive. But even then, only you know how much you've taken in yield over the years. Likewise, how long you're prepared to hold VOD to see if they can recover with 5G assets over subsequent years is also a personal choice, as for all of us.
IMO, you get far more respect from other posters & passing neutrals for your no-BS honesty, than those who scoff from the wings. Not that we need respect, but honesty reflects personal integrity & that's worth any number of those who can only scoff & take petty digs.
As you know, like others here, I too am well down. Less than you as my stake is smaller & I've other interests. But VOD my biggest loser so far. At some point I shall take my hit & move on. But not yet.
VOD's volume today again well above average at over 121m. Also a new 10-year closing low of 124.86. Evidently, funds still reducing & whilst that continues, we may fall further before finding support. Plain realism. But a floor can't be too far off. Then let's see where we are after EU decides on the Liberty Global deal next month. - Regards & GL.
TLWilliams,
Thanks. Quite agree. Having made my decision some 36 hours ago to stay put , I'll certainly not be shaken out in the 120s or when we return to 130s & 140s. I do have a ballpark exit target, but that's unlikely to be seen for a few months at least.
Maybe of interest. Current major short positions on VOD at 2.79%, which is down from their peak a few weeks ago. When more of them close, that will also help lift SP. So one to keep an eye on. - All the best!
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BH4HKS39/
Hi TLWilliams,
Definite signs, though maybe still not quite there. Today’s close at 126 at least only slightly down on yesterday’s, plus on significantly lower volume than seen past 2 days, though still well above average. Today’s volume over 125m. Past 2 days were over 168m & 181m respectively (source ADVFN), indicating significant reductions from larger funds.
In perspective, VOD’s average 1-year daily volume about 84m. Once bigger holders exhaust their selling, there’s a reasonable chance we’ll finally find support. So maybe not far off & one can only hope so! - Regards.
Excuse superfluous use of certain words in last comment as also focused on trading screens when posting. Cheers.
Hi Poker,
Thanks. Too right about their history. For eg. they paid £112 Billion or Mannesman in 2000. Also, new huge new investment tends to be essential every few years in this sector as tech changes fast. Net gain is minimal, bar keeping up with rivals.
I wish I'd read Peter Lynch's old investment/trading books before buying here. He's a successful investor with certain golden rules. He avoids sectors which need huge investment every few years at little net gain to holders. Ditto stocks with large debt. In his view, however rosy the picture looks on the surface when targets are being met, as soon as fundamentals deteriorate, markets easily get spooked by huge debt & sell off.
Thus he also avoids stocks paying generous dividends if allied with huge debt because if divis ever need significant cutting ( as here), large investment funds will ALWAYS exit substantially & transfer their funds into other top yielders, leaving SP battered & often facing very long roads to recovery. All sensible advice really. Hopefully, another lesson learnt for me. - Regards.
Mikey,
L/T chart look bad. It could even eventually see circa 116 at this rate. Markets simply unimpressed with NR's forward guidance & his debt-reducing plan.
As I said earlier, if the EU refused to sanction this Liberty Global deal, decision next month (actually part of former CEO Colao's strategy), they may be doing us a favour. Standard use of 5G technology, especially via mobiles, is years away! Since this deal, it's all been downhill for VOD. - Regards.
Hi Dan,
Thanks also. Maybe so, but I hope we're not patronising new investors. IMO, a bit of BB camaraderie costs nothing & these arenas can also be places to occasionally offload for those who need to. Today has been a significant day for VOD. Besides, who am I to judge others' financial situation or how deep their financial involvement is here. To me, life's too short to allow one to be eaten up by setbacks. But people are different in various ways.
Some VG contributions today from a number of posters. For eg. Trendfriend. He considers a possible technical bounce from around these levels, but no surprise if we revisit more lows later before we see significant consolidation at higher levels. That seems a reasonable technical deduction looking at VOD's 10 year chart. In other words, probably a winding, bumpy road ahead for VOD holders for a while to come.
I'll now review matters here when we get back to circa 165+ to 170, even if it's more than a few months away. - Regards.
Hi Dan,
You seem to forget that those like us are hardened, experienced investors or traders. We've been around for years. Me since 02/2009. We can ride out knocks & even severe setbacks. We know what to expect from this game It can be hard. Par for the course almost.
I slept poorly last night due to mulling decisions here until late. Since booking gains on LLOY in April, VOD my largest combined stake with shares & leverage. I decided to stay put until a turnaround, then take a smaller hit. But my paper losses substantial. My fault 100% as I had chances to exit at 170 in December. Avoidable stress incurred, but that's natural. Life goes on.
Others are far less experienced. Almost new to this game. Easy for some to get sucked in with too much averaging down & expecting a recovery sooner than later. When things get even worse, their financial pain is compounded.
No need to give anyone a bad time for admitting they briefly got fairly emotional. Not everyone is hardened to financial reversals on the scale seen here.
I sincerely hope that you recover your £100K paper losses, as for anyone else. - Regards.
OFAH,
Not that it helps, but I can assure you that your huge disappointment is shared by many others here & on other VOD BBs. Try to stay strong as we're having a right bad time of it. No-one can be sure where the bottom is, but there will be a rebound later as this is still a prime global stock in a huge sector. Just too many headwinds in current climate all coming together. But this is not Carillion. It will see better times once market calms down.
As you'll already well know, Number One is your health & that of your loved ones. - All the best & take care!
Hi DJ,
Plenty of them about in just the FTSE 100. Money for little-to-nothing soon after they take over. Conn at CNA, Staley at BARC, that plonker at BT who spent billions on CL football, now here. No doubt there'll be others. Overpaid, overrated or simply out of their depth. Take your pick. - Regards.
Hi OFAH,
I see entirely where you're coming from. I'm in deeper than some, including shares at 198+ & 175+. My biggest mistake yet!
But markets are often irrational, with twists & turns aplenty due. VOD's SP was over 230 last year. Who back then would've seen 127 now? Not many. FWIW, I've always thought this Liberty Global deal was questionable at this time as revenues won't be optimised for a few more years at least. 5G mobiles as a standard are ages away. The technology needs to drop down in price. IMHO, if the EU was to rule against it next month, it may well do us a favour. - Regards.
OFAH,
It's a double-whammy. Investors thought dividend was safe for at least a while longer after NR's comments in November, but over 40% cut is significant. Now SP falling below 131+ support. All in all, an expensive disaster!
But having decided to hold longer, I shall now ride it out until next rise to circa 170, maybe lower. Then decide. We all had a change to get out of this mess in December when it was 170. Hindsight is a great thing. Hopefully, that'll come again. If not this year, then maybe next. I still see me taking some limited loss later, but not at 10-year lows. - GL.
The priced in aspect at least seems to be good... for now. SP 132+ as I write. Despite dipping below 131+, a support level from 4th March & tested many times yesterday, closing SPs far more important than intraday. If we can hold support, then that'll do me for now.
I'm glad I stayed calm, held my considerable stakes in VOD & didn't join yesterday's huge mad exit. Things can change again of course, but currently it looks as if market reaction may be steadying. - GLA.
Hi Longish & H-hi,
Thanks. Some good & thought-provoking points. I'll be glued to my trading screens for now, just in case, mindful that markets can be highly irrational, but of curse hoping that fairly poor results really are priced in! - Regards & GLA.
H-hi,
In fairness, NR strongly indicated it wouldn't be cut this year at least as recently as November. A poor show to change one's mind after only a few months. A 40% cut is significant for most holders. Especially if there's a double-whammy of further selling off. Results are poor, but hopefully priced in. - Regards.
Hi Dan,
I take your point. My point is that leaks do happen. Fact! But sources of it are harder to prove, if not impossible. But they shouldn't happen. Not if rules were strictly abided by.
Thing is, no ordinary PIs could know for sure if this Times article is mere speculation or an actual leak. We still don't know. But if it's a pre-results leak, chances are that some funds also got wind of it & did know. Level playing field? Hardly.
But as I say, that doesn't detract from self-accountability. It just makes a hard game potentially even harder. - Regards.