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Longish,
You never know with the market cap as low as it's fallen. However, mindful that we've had takeover rumours with VOD going back years, IMO, though any bid is bound to be a good margin higher than current levels, perhaps not as high as some hope. I just think VOD's huge debt & diverse challenges ahead may dissuade overly-generous bids. I couldn't say with conviction, but I doubt it'd be anywhere near 200. - GL.
Hi Longish,
I had no idea, but according to this link it will stop such a loan. However, unless it's a small volume stock, there'll still be plenty of shares about elsewhere for shorting stocks like VOD. - Regards.
https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-putting-a-high-limit-sell-order-will-prevent-shorts-from-borrowing-your-shares
Hi Longish
Thanks again. I can see the logic of your comment. Your VG points taken on board. You may well be right & one hopes so. For me at least, the next couple of weeks will be key. I'll be looking at whether previous L/T support at 131+ now becomes a resistance level.
Pity that the EU keep delaying their decision on the Liberty Deal, now pushed back until 23rd July. We've had a few delays on this now & it suggests that the outcome is by no means certain. - Regards.
Hi Longish,
Thanks! VG points & as bullish as I'd expect from someone who seems committed to holding this for a few years. Not knocking it as you'll know what's best for you over longer time-frame.
For me, I respectfully disagree on a certain point. I do worry about profitability. Not least over the foreseeable future. As stated to Dan a few days ago, I worry whether VOD can turnaround falling revenues & earnings by time of their next update, whilst debt expected to increase. I note, short position on VOD are still high. I worry about how low those shorting this think it may go? My view has somewhat altered since 131+ support went on 14th May.
On the plus side, you'll have heard the last of my rambling for a while if VOD's SP isn't above 131 by 5th June, bar for transparency's sake me posting my crystallised losses. But to each their own as always. - All the best!
Rxdav,
Many people will share your view. All the research done so far (other links say as much) suggest that global 5G ownership will reach over 25% only by 2023. Over 70% of smartphones will still be 4G by 2023 & some even 3G. This is the crux. Huge investment by companies like VOD now, increased debt, but optimum profit rewards unlikely for a number of years.
This tech will be embraced more so by certain businesses, but not for a long time by general consumers. GL. Catch up later.
https://venturebeat.com/2019/03/06/idc-5g-phones-will-grow-from-0-5-market-share-2019-to-26-in-2023/
"I would be interested if anyone could recommend a programe or a tool (SQL etc) that has access to realtime metadata at low cost and fast ?"
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Hi Longish,
Interesting possibilities. I wish I could add usefully on this, but I've no experience in this department whatsoever. But I too am interested in any contributions or recommendations about such programmes. - Cheers.
Hi Longish,
I agree about not crystallising losses if that's it. Not unless one has premeditated firm ideas to transfer cash from a sell fairly sharply into other potential recovery stocks. If I didn't have that plan, I'd not consider pulling out of VOD just to sit on the sidelines & risk feeling an excess of anger & disappointment. - Regards.
Hi Velo, Dan, Longish, TLWilliams,
VG points. This is why choice of broker is fundamental. LSE is another contender. What I will say for LSE is their site is now wholly superior to ii's. So one also assumes this if LSE's Discussion BBs are down, as happens, that LSE's brokerage remains active in market hours. I'd hope so.
As for trading: I've never made a penny profit from spread-betting. Net loser. But I've a profitable real share account since started 02/2009. Flexibility is KEY. Some years I've done 70 to 75+ real share trades. Other years I've not traded for 8 months or longer at a time due to collecting yield & sitting with paper losses.
But in view of Velo's & others comments here, I am tilting towards iWeb for £5 commission, execution as good as HL's & no added charges for shares. In passing, IMO, ii are losing the plot with their new £9.99 monthly charges from 1st June, despite 1 free trade a month valid for 90 days. All those like me who vary their approach, so occasionally don't trade much in prolonged downturns, & those who rarely trade at all, now risk losing substantial sums over the years.
I expect to be involved in stock markets for at least another 20+ years. During that time I risk losing hundreds of pounds by not moving to another broker. Just a pity that transfers can take from 2 weeks to over 4 months going by ii's past record. But if not for these daft charges, ii would be decent enough with their commission falling to £7.99 from 1st June. - GLA.
Hi Poker,
Very likely, though TSCO & MRW holding up much better so far. Looks like Kingrav & I may forget hoping for a quick SP recovery to earlier said targets before 6th June XD.
However, I may still add here before XD & one plan remains as discussed on VOD's BB yesterday, ie. basically transferring from one stock to here. Just an option, not yet a firm decision. Will post any add to my 215.96 re-buy here if I go for it. - Regards.
Kingrav,
Thanks. Indeed. Also, occasionally if a stock is trending upwards, (not the case here as yet) any falls on actual XD can recover days later. One can book divi & regain SP value in same week. However, in this case I'm inclined to totally agree with you. Any decent rise is likely to be taken.
OTOH, I'm also not fazed by holding for a year or so if necessary. Would I add another tranche to my 215.96 re-buy before 6th June if we were around these levels? Possibly so for a target of circa 240 for later this year or 2020. - Regards.
Totally agree with you, Boomer, Trend364 , SUFF,
This will come good and JB is the loser
How much do you think JB is losing?
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Hi BruBrook,
Thanks. Let's hope so, but we'll need clarity on key macro-factors to see this & other UK banks make serious progress. When that might be, I've no idea. But I imagine it'll certainly happen
FWIW, having traded this at gain before, I still hold shares at 198+ & a recent add at 157+. Also longs at various levels. Nothing easy about this game.
As for the JB alias: I have no history with him. Totally neutral. However he trades, I've no reason to think of anyone else here as a "loser". All of us get some calls right & others wrong. The overall picture is what counts more. - Regards & GL.
Kingrav,
Much the same thinking here, though I'll be surprised to see 230 so soon. But certainly can't rule it out. SBRY the FTSE's 100's top riser today percentage-wise. - Regards.
"So my initial comments about iWeb are unwarranted and now proven to be wholly unfounded. I look upon iWeb with renewed appraisal."
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Hi Velo,
Many thanks for taking the time to do those comparative tests as comprehensively as you have & posting comments & results! Very useful info & MUCH appreciated. No doubt that iWeb will be even more strongly considered by me than before.
Must say in passing that whilst I've read other positive opinions about iWeb's general service, those results are a pleasant surprise. With commission at only £5 (after a £25 registration fee) & no added charges, one can hardly go wrong whether trading frequently or not. - Thank you again & all the best!
Hi Poker,
Thanks. VG points. What you say is indeed possible. A number of variables in play, which could go either way. Possibly a number of reports we've seen recently about rising fears of recession ahead in EU are overly negative. IMO, the China/US jitters will probably calm down as rising tariff wars will be internecine to both nations, as well as globally.
Without knocking others optimism, the scenario I’ve projected to myself is also possible for VOD. But what’s significantly changed for me is recent loss of support at 131+. Huge misjudgement on my part thinking bad news was probably priced in.
Looking ahead to next updates, there’s now unacceptable risk for me personally to just sit & hope for a turnaround, unless we see larger volume buying soon to take this higher & consolidation. Divi-cut seems the right decision, but no longer a pull for those of us holding from higher up.
I’m also mindful that technically it’s not unusual to see L/T support levels, once broken, become a resistance level requiring fresh bullish news to break. Here again, no problem for those with longer-term agendas.
As posted on ii’s VOD BB, after trading VOD successfully, I re-bought shares at 198.32 in May 2018. Smaller leveraged longs higher up & lower. Later added more shares at 175+. Yield was of some consolation, little more. I've sat tight for well over a year successfully with stocks like MRW, LLOY, BARC, et al. But I had confidence in their recovery within a still decent timeframe beyond a year. Here the sheer debt, expected to rise & with possibly more falling revenues, tells me that I'd be lucky to see anywhere near 198 even next year.
So I'll see where VOD's SP is by 5th June & then I'll do whatever seems right for my particular targets from markets in general. - Regards.
"I have always tried to be positive on here, but some of the things I think, some on here should at least admit they where wrong about , is the nonsense about, 1. free cash flow means the divi is safe. 2. a falling sp is good. (better yield) & 3 vod's % interest on it's deb't doesn't matter. All these are complete nonsense. O.K . more fool me for not bailing out before. I admit I was wrong with my positive posts. So come on, you know who you are, admit you where wrong. I still think however positive going forward. But I could be wrong??!!"
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Hi Dan,
Very fair points. I guess everyone meant well, but ALL who bought higher up & didn't exit when opportunity arose around 170 in December got it wrong. I expressed doubts about debt & other issues, but was no less wrong. As I wrote, huge debt + continued falling revenues, with more debt due, is ALWAYS punished by markets. Still I sat for circa 180 &, later, for assumed yield believing all negatives were priced in. Who to blame? Only myself 100% of course.
Now all that matters is how each of us deal with the mess that suits our respective timeframe, general financial targets from markets, et al. Some will sit doggedly & hold for years, with unchanging optimism. Respect to them! Others will be proactive & start reducing at loss, as you have. I will, too. Mindful that few, bar the lucky, exit exact tops or buys exact lows
My reasons looking ahead & mindful I could be VERY wrong AGAIN: after 131+ went last week, risk here is now too great for me. Question I ask: can VOD definitely see a turnaround to increase revenues & profits in next updates? If they don't, with debt expected to rise, what next? More divi-cuts & SP down again? Answer to self: with weakening markets, rising competition, etc. it'll surprise me if VOD can buck the recent trend anytime soon.
So only decision for me is when. I also want to put my VOD losses back into market not too long after & before I switch my broker. Preliminary target? Unsure, but if VOD not above 131 before 6th June XD, that may be a good time. I'll post my sell decision & where I've transferred my losses to on the day. If we're a few pence above 131 on 5th June, I'll keep it flexible & delay.
As usual, NO ADVICE to others as I'm sure this will see much better days for the more patient prepared to sit well beyond 2019. - Regards & GL.
"sold a few, 5% of my my holding, at 1.23.4. But at least now I can now afford to hold for about 10 months or so hoping for a recovery?"
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Hi Dan,
Respect for your decisiveness & honesty. Shows integrity. You'll know what's best for your situation better than anyone. Needless to say, I hope you see a VG outcome in a timeframe acceptable to you. - ATB! - Now I'm away from my desk for a while.
Hi Velo,
Thanks for the update. Appreciated & no problem. No rush & in your own time is more than fine by me. - Regards. Catch all later.
Hi AW100,
Thanks. I agree caution is sensible re SBRY, et al. Indeed, shorts are still significant there, but come down massively since last year & before. But I've not added since my last buy.
Key thing for now is that VOD finds a floor fairly soon. When we get back to over 131, I'm sure all of us will feel a little easier. - Regards.
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B019KW72/
Hi Barchid,
I've said similar about CEO. In November he appeared to give assurances re maintaining divi for this year at least. That was the general understanding on BBs like this. SP spiked to 170+ in early December. It briefly occurred to me & others to sell at a very limited hit, but I hesitated for too long, SP fell back &, well, at least there was the substantial dividend to look forward to. Or so we thought.
The 40% cut that includes the interim already paid means that the final divi is now smaller than the interim. Very crafty &, as you say, it puts into question his trustworthiness.
As mentioned before, good CFO's don't necessarily make good CEOs. A global stock like VOD probably needs a top CEO with a proven track record. At least Colao was seen as a safe pair of hands. Nick Read? Jury still out &, so far, IMO, he's totally failed to impress. - Regards.
Alan,
If Brexit Party wins, it'll certainly put more pressure on Theresa May's successor to deliver a harder Brexit. But impact on UK markets isn't certain Yes, some sectors like banks are very likely to be further sold off. However, as the FTSE has many high value commodity & others stocks which earn their profits in dollars, they'll benefit from any further weakening of Sterling.
So a Brexit Party win could see Sterling down again, yet the FTSE 100 climb overall, however briefly. Weaker Sterling means higher profits for many of UKX's global stocks. - Regards.