George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
"so...have all the panic sellers ..just become panic buyers ?"
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Poker,
Is there such an ilk as "panic buyers"? LOL! Jesting aside, remains to be seen if this is a transient bounce as on results day. Up to 136.40+ on results, then sold-off to close at 126+.
If any rise isn't sustained for longer than a few sessions & not backed by VG volume, it's probably meaningless. We'll have to wait & see. If we can get past 131+ this week, formerly a support level, I may be convinced a floor has been reached. Let's hope so. - GL..
"If, as has been suggested there has been a lot of fund selling ...there should be some :"
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Hi Poker,
There would be if a certain fund sold massively & their stake reaches below a certain threshold. But if very high daily volumes includes a number of funds reducing, then there may not be. Volumes here have been well above average recently. Every day last week. For eg. some days over 181m, over 168m. That suggests some funds at least reducing as many ordinary PIs get caught in the headlights during sharp SP falls & do little but hold on & hope for a turnaround. - Regards.
Hi AW100,
I'm thinking a few stocks to add to. LLOY currently under 60p. Progressive yield, to be paid quarterly from 2020. The only thing holding that back to at least circa 72 & a 20% gain is Brexit. Also SBRY for another add & better yield now at L/T lows. I took 10% gain from SBRY days after buying less than 3 weeks ago. But misfired with buying back. Also looking at CEY, a gold miner, as another recovery play having fallen substantially since last year. There are a few others, but those are just ideas to my self.
Point is, though nothing is without risk, this CEO seems to inspire little confidence from markets & optimum revenues from 5G won't be realised anytime soon. Before that, VOD's debt will increase. If revenues continue falling, I daren't call possible lows. For me, too much risk.
I looked on ADVFN & their site states VOD's current "net debt" at over £63 billion. That's ridiculous! Other sites put it at much less. Either way, if this isn't substantially higher by XD on 6th June, things are likely to get worse before better. Recovery for my 198+ & 175+ share buys, let alone the VOD longs, is unlikely to be seen soon.
As I say, for me it's fluid thing. I'll not pull the trigger on any decision today or tomorrow, but I think I may be moving on sooner than I expected just days ago. The volume behind the selling speaks volumes. But NO ADVICE to others, who have different timeframes & targets. - Regards.
AW100,
Thanks. Valid points re BT et al. It may well be a L/T hold, but not for me. It's situation I keep under constant review as things go from bad to worse. I've already decided that taking a hit is very likely. Maybe soon. I'll then switch my VOD funds into other stocks almost immediately. Still weighing up various recovery stocks that can give me a far better chance of getting all VOD losses back & more. To each their own naturally.
I'm also looking to changing brokers, which leaves accounts inaccessible during the process. That can take weeks or months. That means making some big decisions in the next few weeks as i don;t want to end up stuck in a stock I've lost faith in. - Regards.
Alan,
Looks like another exodus from ii due to incompetency at the top. I too am off after being switched from TDD in 2017. Lord knows what ii are thinking with these latest rip-off charges for those who trade less frequently! A gimmick which obliges their customers to trade more or be penalised by monthly charges. Seems like another own goal. Decent site ruined by clueless owners. For me, it's either HL, X-O or iWeb. Will decide over coming days or weeks.
As for this: I bought back at 215.96 after selling a previous buy for 10% profit days before. That sell now seems fortunate. But I don't see anything rational in these recent SP falls & I may even add another tranche soon if it keeps falling. But whatever, I shall hold this until SP recovers. - GLA.
Mikey & DJ,
LC got DEB wrong (everyone makes occasional misjudgements in markets), but credit to him for calling this, despite his abrasive manner. Double whammy: sharp divi-cut, supposedly priced in & yet SP falling every day.
Will review my targets accordingly as XD on 6th June. We could have an ongoing disaster on our hands if 120 goes. - GLA.
"Re the FCA £75k cover, if you had ur shares split over 3 brokers, and they all went down, could you claim £75k for each one? I know its a strategy used by some ppl but wondering if it will actually work in the end."
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Simon,
The FSCS last year increased protection per share account from £75K to £85K. Spreading a much larger sum among different brokers has some merit. However, a proper broker holds all customer shares in so-called "nominee accounts". They tend to be held in subsidiary, non-trading companies. These nominee share accounts are legally separate from all brokers own funds. If a UK-based broker goes bust, we'll be fine according to current UK law.
Different risks may apply to overseas brokers. For eg. DeGiro based in Holland is very cheap, but their compensation seems be limited to only €20K (Euros). - Cheers.
"jack, now u got my anxiety up with the ii transfer... I did not know there were such problems reported.
it had better not take 4 months, otherwise I wont be able to sell when I need to."
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Simon,
It’s a concern. However, this was soon after ii took over TDD late 2017 & it went on well into early 2018. Huge exodus due to ii’s £90 annual charges. TDD customers saw no charges on share accounts. So I’m wonder whether there’s another rush for the exits ahead with these latest ill-conceived increased charges starting 1st June? I suspect many will leave.
Or maybe they're got their act together since as previously many customers complained to the FCA. It was a shambles as seen from many Trust Pilot reviews going back to that particular period.
Please do keep us updated. As for anyone else who may be with ii & goes ahead with a transfer. FWIW, I'd welcome TDD back in a heartbeat! - ATB!
Simon,
Thanks again! Some VG points & useful added links. Indeed, HL always much higher up than others as an institutional investor. They're huge! Hence their high SP in FTSE 100. Currently 2,419. But ii are absent. Latter privately owned, hence also not listed on any exchange. Jarvis (JIM epic) has SP of 472.
Thanks also for distinctions between X-O & iWeb, with X-O allowing regular accounts under same login. I'd prefer X-O on this as I'm very careful with online security, but that alone won't swing my decision. As you say, HL may well be my best option.
What Jarvis say re “1-2 weeks” or “2-3 weeks” is indeed how it’s supposed to be. HL, et al, will all say similar. However, look at customer reviews on other sites & ii had huge problems in this department a while back. Numerous complaints last year from ii customers transferring out & stuck in limbo for over 3 & 4 MONTHS. Not all of course, but many such reviews on Trust Pilot circa early 2018 soon after they took over TDD. A huge backlog of transfer requests that brokers being transferred to could do nothing about.
That's my only concern. I'd hate to be trapped if there was a transient spike across markets & I couldn't book gains. So we'll see what Velo's observations tell us next week.
NB: If you've time later, please let us know how any transfer goes for you & how long it took. Thanks in advance. - Regards & GL.
"I am wondering though, of that list of HL's 32 sources, how many of those are for overseas markets like new york, tsx, asx, etc..."
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Hi Simon,
Thanks & you're welcome. I too appreciate others views on this issue as I'm contemplating a transfer in June.
This from HL’s site seems to answer your good question, quote: “We place all overseas deals with Winterflood Securities Ltd and Peel Hunt LLP. They charge us for providing this service to you.”
On their list of 32 trading venues, those two ARE included. So one assumes the other 30 brokers of 32 listed in that HL link are for UK markets. Mindful of some inevitable complaints about HL, IMO, that seems VG & justifies their standard £11.95 commission for less frequent traders. No added costs on their Fund & Share account. But costs apply to other accounts like their ISA & SIPP.
What reassures me is that HL have over 1m UK clients. Recent report put ii at 2nd largest UK broker with over 300K clients, so well behind. I’m not only looking for better service & cheaper costs than ii’s, I also want a long-term stay. I hate switching brokers! I've read it can be time-consuming & may result in lost opportunities due to accounts being inaccessible during transfers.
Indeed, TD Direct used to be TD Waterhouse. They changed their name shortly before ii bought them. I originally ended up with TDW after latter bought eTradeUK, a discount broker who were also excellent. Hence I also don't rule out X-O or iWeb & their standard low costs regardless of how much one trades.
Whilst, as mentioned, I've had some very active years with real shares, OTOH, some years I don't trade via shares for 8 months at a time. In future, it could be much longer. Especially in a longer economic downturn. I'm more active with spread-bets. So as with those like you, I can see ii costing me a lot of avoidable charges over time.
Indeed, I too look forward to Velo's observations. If he sees no difference, I may opt for X-O or iWeb. - Regards.
"A small increase in a short can very often be followed by a much bigger buy back % ....buying more at the lower level that what they sold to take greater advantage of the lower price..."
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Poker,
Certainly so. For now though, there's little indication of it. Thought that short-tracker only goes back to 2012, current short positions on VOD are just off record highs. That suggests that hedgies see more downside ahead, unless of course they begin closing very soon. What might prompt a buy-back in the foreseeable future, Lord knows. I see no substantial good news for VOD ahead anytime soon. But we can never assume too much as being 100% either way. So it's one to watch very closely for those in my position... just in case the bottom lies closer to £1. - Regards.
To clarify, meant: Indeed so re your point about Arrowgrass Capital & only a small rise in shorts in their case. Good spot. Cheers.
"Now...I have been wondering if....since that time ...theose bondholders receiving shares as a redemption of the bonds have been selling those shares into the market, further compounding the SP drop, or even being part of the shorting of the shares"
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Hi Poker,
Thanks. VG points. Most probably that's so, though also difficult to gauge to what degree it's happening. That aspect of markets still remains fairly abstruse to ordinary PIs & traders, me included. What little I know is that, my understanding is that only brokers & actual shorters take the risk. The holders whose shares are loaned out to shorters have no knowledge of it. So for them it carries no risk. So I imagine that may well be contributing to the shorting here. But I know little more.
Re comment in your previous post: Indeed so & collectively short positions bound to be much higher than 3.30% when factoring in hedge funds shorting at less than 0.5%. Presumably there'll be a fair number of those. Hence my question mostly to self: how low do these hedge funds see VOD going, mindful that for the past few months at least, only shorters, to their credit, have called this spot on?
Certainly a concern if ANY shorts are being added at 10-year lows , however small percentage-wise. VOD's chart also looks very bearish for possibly more falls before a bottom found. Most of us have our limits to how much more punishment we can take if we're also leveraged. - Regards. Catch all later.
Hi HU,
Possibly a good buy for L/T hold. however, only as long as prepared for further volatility. Broadly agree with Poker, especially re dividends. If revenues keep dropping, which seems conceivable, no surprise if divi is cut yet again later as debt rises from Liberty deal. It was always too high & we've heard a lot of optimism bias on various VOD BBs re FCF covering divis safely.
Future SP? Well, short positions on VOD increased again from 2.79% when I posted to TLWilliams 3 days ago, to 3.30% now (see short tracker link in said post). That indicates that some hedge funds see this falling much further, even if there are rises before a bottom seen. Rightly or wrongly, they see any rises likely to be sold off.
VOD's daily average volume is over 84m. Past 5 days has seen well above, from Monday respectively: over 168m, 181m, 128m, 114m & over 120m. Funds exiting. Also another new 10-year low on Friday. This suggests a rebasing of SP that may stay at near these levels a while. No quick recovery in SP seems realistic now. Not without fresh good news.
Bottom line: I've enough exposure & won't buy more here again. Already decided to cut at loss higher up later. But for those prepared to hold much longer-term & ride out fluctuations, based on the view that a lot of bad news ought to be priced in, it's perhaps worth a stake. Or maybe take on board Poker's sound view: wait for support level. No support here yet as SP keeps closing at new L/T lows. - Best of luck!
Maybe of interest. Though this & most banks well out of favour (FWIW, I hold shares at 157.30, 198.85 + underwater longs at various levels, having traded ample times), a decent read regarding BARC & investment banking in general. Below are quotes from link, which is much longer. - Cheers.
May 17, 2019. - "Summary: Barclays remains in the doldrums, its share price lagging peers so far this year and its valuation multiple being amongst the lowest in European banking.
While the bank faces challenges in its retail banking businesses, especially in the UK, the debate around the stock is dominated by the performance of the investment bank (CIB).
The prevailing view is that this is a business Barclays will never earn adequate returns from and that it will dilute group return on equity in perpetuity.
I take a more positive view, which I explore in this article. CIB isn’t a great business but it is improving and it looks a lot better than its European peers. More importantly, the valuation at which it is embedded within Barclays is extremely low, meaning any progress could drive a big re-rating of the share price."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264887-barclays-defense-investment-banking?dr=1#alt1
"I cant yet believe that ii / hl offer superior quote prices over x-o / i web - the reason being because out of the 20 or so people who have told me they recommend iweb / x-o, all have said they came from ii / hl and they would never go back, some even mentioning they thought iweb / x-o offered better prices."
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Simon,
You may be right re iWeb & X-O. The people I've spoken to on other sites rate them as more than good enough. But for eg. my own experience with TDD since 2010, doing over 70 to 75+ trades some years, was excellent execution prices. Often beating market. Better than ii's. That rendered TDD's £12.50 commission as seeming a few quid cheaper than £12.50. But that's less of an issue for anyone rarely trading.
Obviously I can't confirm how good or poor HL are. HL have over 1 million clients. UK's biggest broker. So bound to be some clients who find fault. I've yet to decide where I'll go to.
Will be interesting to see what Velo notes in his execution price comparison test next week & thanks for that in advance, Velo! Appreciated. - ATB to both!
"Jackdawson, Can you point me to where it says X-O has 5 different sources to get better execution prices and to where HL claim to have 32?
All that glitters isnt gold. ii is pure proof of that, a horrible service but designed in away to look dominant, authoritative and official"
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Hi Simon & Velo,
No problem, Simon. It's a w/end & I'm sure others are fine with some O/T helping others make best decisions. FWIW, I only found out due to having same idea as you, ie. ii's new price increases for inactivity. I'm also considering X-O, iWeb or HL? Important decision transferring. Before that, I want to collect my LLOY dividend payable next week & book my VOD & SBRY divis, both XD's 6th June. Also note, reportedly, accounts are inaccessible during transfers. They can last from weeks to over 3 months (if client reviews on Trust Pilot are to go by).
Link & key quote from HL’s site.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/quality-of-execution-report
“Our focus is on you and getting you the best price on your deal. When you ask us to place a deal for you, we’ll get prices from up to 32 different places. And you’ll get the best price."
From X-O's site.
http://www.x-o.co.uk/order-execution.htm
“Jarvis places significant reliance on the following execution venues. - Execution venues. UK Equities and exchange-traded products.
Winterflood Securities
KBC Peel Hunt
Shore Capital Stockbrokers Ltd
Knight Equity Markets
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe
Hope that helps. As I said, my former broker TDD had no added fees & offered superior execution service . Now, if over next 20 years one has periods of inactivity that total, say, 50 months, conceivable with real shares even for those like me in downturns, ii think it's fine to take nearly £500 from client accounts at £9.99 a month. For those less active, I can see why people are leaving. Their free commission credits last 90 days. Fine for those trading frequently without longer breaks, otherwise a gimmick. - Regards.
"2) HL is the best in the country but pricey, it's got all the bells and whistles - bootiful plarform; beware it'll ruin you for any other platform -but you will fall in love with it."
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Hi Velo,
I can well believe it. Reading their site indicates not only an impressive range of services, but they use 32 different places to get best execution prices. X-O has about 5, which is still good for a discount broker.
I'm with ii, for now, but for those only holding & rarely ever trading, I agree with others that iWeb & X-O are worthy contenders. Others I know who use them say they're fine., despite being not as diverse in the range of investments they offer & using plain vanilla sites. But that's to be expected from cheaper brokers.
For regular traders, what you save in cheaper commission can cost you in worse execution prices. For eg. I was with TD Direct before ii took over. Though TDD's standard commission was £12.50, they had no added fees for share accounts & they invariably got market beating execution prices. This meant one saw the £12.50 commission as cheaper in real terms. I'd welcome back TDD anytime! - Regards.
My sincere apologies to all decent posters for biting back in my last comment & lowering the standard of this usually sound BB. - GLA! I'll catch up & read others comments later.
Mishmos,
Just holders off-loading. Different views. Even VOD directors who bought in have got it badly wrong. Shit happens.
So what's your motive for commenting? If you don't want to contribute & have no interest in VOD, stay away. Or are you so effing sad that you have an imbecilic need to wind folk up on BBs of stocks you've no interest in? Nothing to contribute, then STFU!