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OFAH,
MF employ a few financial commentators. Each FTSE stock gets a bull-case from one commentator & then a very bearish outlook from another. It's how MF operate. They've taken both sides on VOD quite recently. - Regards.
Hi Longish,
Good move. Indeed, SBRY at 16 year lows largely down to already expected news confirming end of possible Asda merger seemed too good to pass by. Already in profit there. Recently I've done other business elsewhere, including selling off a lot of LLOY at 66+, booking more gain on ITV, et al. So mixed fortunes.
VOD remains a hard call as to how much is priced in re possible divi-cut & what happens if it isn't cut? So ideally we'll be at least well into the mid-140s day before results... just in case of any unexpected disappointments.
If there is bad news, I'll decide fairly promptly what to do to the best of my interests on the actual day. Life's too short & I can make my losses back elsewhere. - Regards.
Mikey,
Thanks. Good to know they've changed the deadline date to 18th June, Original deadline was 2nd May & I'd not checked since. Whether dragging this decision out helps us is another matter. One would have thought that the few months they've already had would be long enough. But I guess there's a good reason for further delays. Thanks again. - Regards.
Dan,
True that volumes drop over summer as some pros take longer breaks, which can lead to heightened volatility. But nothing is gospel & certainly not this adage. - Regards.
https://www.moneywise.co.uk/news/2018-05-01/experts-dismiss-adage-sell-may-and-go-away-until-st-leger-day
SP rises, pointless bickering falls. Nice to see. SP falls & a few are at each others throats.
Huge disappointment & stress are only natural. Latter may increase soon. Liberty Global decision 2nd May, results 14th May. Impossible to predict those outcomes. Purely personal view: if we're at least well over 150 after the 14th suggesting a decent reaction, I'll continue to hold & we may be over the worst. But no predictions from me.
Added SBRY yesterday to my other holds, so I've plenty of action elsewhere. - GLA.
Fosters,
Thanks. It'd be a cold day in hell before I paid the slightest mind to any broker, be they bearish like this outfit or more bullish. My target will be reviewed higher up. Food sector has plenty of growth ahead & SBRY will remain a top player. - Cheers.
Buy 213.89 announced on ii. Real shares. Reasons: seems a total overreaction on news confirming no merger with ASDA. Sentiment again seems the main driver. As it was during the huge spike in April 2018 when news of said merger first broke. That also started a brief uptrend that saw SP reach 340+ by August. Also an overreaction.
When emotions calm down, SBRY will be higher again. This remains a fundamentally sound business in a still growing market. Target for a review on my buy: a modest 240+. Timeframe is another matter as markets can stay irrational for lengthy periods.
Might add if it drops much lower. - GLA.
Johnson,
It's a concern for me because of how huge debt is perceived by stock markets & funds.
Huge debt can seem very manageable for years. If targets are met, revenues & divis increase, etc. all seems rosy. But as soon as fundamentals dip, markets soon get spooked. Fear becomes dominant. Then we often see the usual sharper sell-offs, including from investment funds. It always happens when there's too much debt. Huge debt is ALWAYS a negative whenever fundamentals deteriorate. So next results in May will be particularly important for VOD.
As you'll know, VOD's debt will also increase for a while with $22 billion Liberty Deal - assuming it goes through. We'll know for sure by early May. So, IMO, it's vital that VOD produces decent results to market in May, including a convincing blueprint for reducing debt. But such is the uncertainty that we have a low SP despite high yield.
I hope we see a rise & consolidation at higher levels than this before results on 14th May, if only to give us a cushion. If they're lousy, I shall consider other courses of action to simply getting beaten down here every week.
Here's hoping all here have a VG Easter!
Dan,
Thanks. Your historical knowledge of VOD far exceeds mine. Probably that of many others. I've traded VOD only since I started this game 02/2009. I've a good grasp of their recent history mostly. I know that for all their past errors, they managed to increase dividends for 18 consecutive years, until last interim. No doubt that policy attracted many L/T investors into piling in here & things worked well enough as long as VOD's SP ranged between levels much higher than what we see now. Hence the general disappointment.
Re Mannesman: it does make one think. However, as you'll know, VOD isn't the only FTSE company that's made ill-judged buys over the years that with hindsight it would've avoided. Frankly, one even questions whether the Liberty Deal, if approved, is really worth $22 billion as any optimised increase in revenues directly from that won't be seen for years yet.
My approach has been diametrically different to your's, which isn't to say your's isn't just as good, or even better than mine if it fits your psychology. If I see decent gains, I book them. That's been the case with VOD, et al. Only occasionally would I sit for yield.
For eg. closed last 2 of 7 LLOY longs today. Only real shares left there. Frankly, I'm only still holding VOD due to mistiming my entries. Which is probably why I occasionally also let off some steam here. It's frustration directed at myself. As I say, I'd like this to be at least mid-140s, preferably higher, the day before results. Otherwise I'll be concerned. - Regards.
Dan,
In view of VOD's significant debt, I agree with Fleccy, et al, that some divi-cut appears to be priced in. So in theory, SP will rise a little if the divi is maintained, not only now, but future guidance points to keeping that policy unchanged. But it'll also depend on other fundamentals. That debt really needs trimming.
Those are variables that no-one but VOD insiders should really know before results.
However, if there's a sell-off just before results & then any divi-cut is significant, it would again suggest that someone from inside VOD is leaking info to hedge funds. That would be a bitter pill to swallow.
Ideally, this will be a higher before results, at least circa mid-140s, to give us a cushion against any more unexpected disappointments. - Regards.
IMO, this seems highly optimistic & certainly for anytime soon. But maybe of interest. - GLA.
Why Vodafone is still backed to hit 250p - by Graeme Evans from interactive investor | 9th April 2019 15:07
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/why-vodafone-still-backed-hit-250p-ii508061
Hi Fleccy,
Thanks again for further clarification of your overall view. Comment appreciated & acknowledged. Ditto to AW100 & others. Some thought-provoking points, to say the least.
I'm busy away from my desk most of the day, so regards & GLA.
Fleccy,
Thanks. I see your logic & I agree a divi-cut seems priced in near these levels.
But you'll no doubt also appreciate it's not all plain-sailing as regards future growth. For eg. India is indeed a huge market, but increasingly competitive. Though planned cost-saving synergies have yet to be fully implemented there, VOD IDEA lost a reported 35 million subscribers in just 3 months as stated in February's Q3, with losses increasing. That may of course be turned around in future quarters & ditto an increase in revenues.
Whilst I also agree VOD doesn't pose "high risk" at these levels, some risk nevertheless exists for previously said reasons.
Hard to be confident that 131+ lows won't be revisited at some point soon. If so, it won't surprise me. - GL.
Fleccy,
Thanks. Good to know that you speak from considerable personal experience. However, regarding VOD specifically, though I think you rather avoid answering my question, maybe someone should consider passing on such insights to larger investment funds in case they're missing something by not buying more VOD at these low prices. That's besides those funds recently opening shorts on this.
Perhaps they've too many groundless doubts about future sustainability of VOD's yield & manageability of its debt? - GL.
"Telecoms is a no brainer for the long term investor"
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Fleccy,
So as I mentioned, a question I ask myself often, why then aren't large investment funds piling into VOD at these relatively low prices? After all, they have ample research resources that look at various economic situations on a macro-level. If it's such a "no-brainer" & with the yield as it is, why are they passing up such a temptation?
Or is it that the bigger picture is far more complex, with VOD facing huge challenges on a number of fronts if it's to avoid further deterioration in fundamentals & potential further loss in SP value? Hmmm.
Maybe ask those L/T investors who bought this at well over 200 how they feel now about this sector being a "no brainer". - GL.
Seems a good overview of VOD's key markets. GLA.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241577/number-of-vodafone-mobile-customers-by-markets/
Hi Poker,
Thanks. Just an ordinary holder here, but one who prefers to try to see both a balanced bull-case & a bear-case for any stock I'm holding. As we know, little is guaranteed in markets either way. Nothing is entirely risk-free, even when much seems priced in. How many foresaw VOD's fall to 131+? Some, but not many.
FTSE 100 is littered with badly beaten-down, top divi-yielders, whose losses far exceed their collective yield going back years. Some will probably never recover to previous highs.
Much agree re a significant risk of further downturn in VOD's key markets in EU. Italy already in recession. Risk of contagion across other EU economies is real. Most economic projections in short-term are bearish & if we did see recession, much also depends on how long it lasts for.
Of course those projections could be wrong. But the thought that VOD's revenues could escape any effect of a deeper recession in EU, does seem wishful thinking.
Question that rarely leave me for long: if VOD is such a great opportunity at these levels & its excellent yield safe, how come large investment funds weren't piling into VOD at recent lows, prompting a steady recovery & consolidation in SP? Instead we see increasing short positions.
Whilst big players also get it badly wrong, they also have ample resources for greater research on a macro-level & they probably don't get it badly wrong nearly as often as ordinary PIs. - Regards.
I made a point that using internet linked devices is one of the last things that people will give up.
That statement has nothing to do with when and how severe the next EU downturn will be.
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LTI,
Fair enough. Points taken on board. You may be right. My view stands: if an economically weakening EU enters deeper recession fairly soon, as various financial reports suggest is very conceivable, that seems likely to impact revenues for many stocks, including VOD. In view of latter's debt, that risk seems significant. Though of course it may not happen.
But a pointless argument. My apology for over-reacting in the heat of the moment when posting. Needed to take a time-out. As I say, life's too short.
GL with your investments, as for anyone else.
Dan,
Nice one & thanks. Much agree. I referred to H-hi's comment, "technically own", something only relevant if we have another recession, greater defaults on mortgages, leading to more repossessions.
I'm fine with most posters, most of the time. Rare exceptions: those who question other comments & then readily scorn any historical evidence for it because they only want to present the bullish case, ignoring all risk. BBs are full of that ilk. They just skew the bigger picture &, in worse cases, mislead others. Saw its kind on DEB's BB from months ago. Life's too short.
By the by, something I see often enough on other BBs, which seems germane here too: when stocks are back under the cosh & paper losses mount again, things are more likely to get heated over things that wouldn't ordinarily matter. I know many here are heavily invested. Some are more than a few thousands down. That can add to stress.
Every false dawn for recovery seems even more disappointing. Only human. Little is easy about this game, bar when investments are rising & targets being met. Not many can say that about VOD, bar the few who bought near 10 year lows recently. - Regards. Catch up later.
LTI,
You're behaving like an idiot. I made a point about deeper recessionary risks in EU & how they might affect VOD. You dismissed it. I gave you evidence of what how a smaller downturn in EU impacted VOD a few years ago. You dismissed that too with your bullish c-rap. Don't post to me again or is that too difficult to understand?
Better still, on ignore you go. Filtered, GL & Goodbye! ;o).