Member Info for JABH

@dinoken You were talking about 90p and selling out two weeks ago. What happened, Mr Buffett? :D

Looks like it closed at 194.57 on Thursday then opened at 195 on Friday. It then closed at 198.70 on Friday which is about 1.9% rise. Seems within the range of a normal day's movement (albeit in the right direction!). If you look at the 6 month chart, Friday was unremarkable.

I get where you're coming from but it can't be as simple as that. Otherwise, where is our 10p per share? I think there's probably some nuance around the fact that taking the £1.25bn out of the business to purchase the shares was also attributable to ordinary shareholders so it ends up being a net zero position.

What's the calculation behind the 12 pence? Doesn't seem quite right. I read that the buyback was worth 1p to Shareholders. The SP ended up increasing by 0.75p on the day that the bought back shares were dissolved.

Wow, that's quite savage commentary from Deutsche Bank. I wonder how true it is. They seem to be out of whack with consensus.

Because the day you get the 3p dividend is the day that the analysts mark down the SP by 3p so you end up in exactly the same position (unless the market moves on the same day to make things either worse or better but that's just a gamble which HMT aren't in the business of).

Brilliant news! Doesn't seem to be much negative press about loss to taxpayer (yet) either. Maybe they bought back at a good time from a media perspective too. Press preoccupied with other stories.

Relates to failures between Nov 2011 and Oct 2016 with respect to the accounts of a single customer. NWG was notified of the investigation in summer 2017 and has been cooperating with the FCA ever since. It has made "significant multi-year investments in its financial crime systems and controls" since the start of the investigation. Disappointing, but it is a failure from between 5 and 10 years ago that has been addressed now. We have to wait and see what the outcome of the investigation is now.

Why would they sell right now?

Sold in 2015 @ £3.30
Sold in 2017 @ £2.71

With that in mind, and the fact that the government has publicly committed to divesting its entire shareholding not at a specific price but by a specific time (2025-2026) then I'm not sure why you would be so confident that the government will not sell below £3-£3.50.

"...chart pattern formed. This bearish signal target price range 129.00 - 134.00.
btw my last two shouts on this have been very close to the target price stated at the time...." (@155.25p on 20th Jan)

I thought this sounded like a crock at the time; couldn't really have been more wrong could it. Looking forward to getting back into that normal 200-250 range now.

Was looking at the 5-year SP history today after the SP reached 188p this morning! Seems very volatile today by the way. Interesting to note over the past 5 years:

50p-100p range - virtually unprecedented, only for about a week in the depths of the pandemic
100p-150p range - only during the pandemic
150p-200p range - only really for a short period when UK voted to leave EU in Summer 2016, and now as we are recovering from the pandemic
200p-250p range - this is the range that SP has sat in for the majority of the past 5 years albeit, over that time, weighed down by the threat of a Labour government wanting to break up the Bank (now gone), and with substantial fears about Brexit being a catastrophe (also now arguably disproven).
250p-300p range - on several occasions and periods between April 2017 and December 2019 just before the pandemic ruined everything
300p-350p range - Only on a couple of occasions in Jan 2018

To my mind there is no reason why this stock would not return comfortably to the 200p-250p range where it has normally sat for the past five years, and lots of good reasons for it to re-enter 250p-300+ range. Just need to keep everything crossed that there is no appearance of teenage mutant ninja covid down the line.

I worked out the dividends based on the £800m minimum distribution and the projected profits shown in the results pack:

3.3p in Aug 2021 and 3.3p in Feb 2022 (based on £800m minimum because profits are projected to be lower)
7.4p in Aug 2022 and 7.4p in Feb 2023
8.2p in Aug 2023 and 8.2p in Feb 2024

My biggest concern though, from a macroeconomic standpoint, is Covid19 running unchecked somewhere like Yemen and then a vaccine-resistant strain mutating which circulates globally like the original did from Wuhan. It will be interesting to see what level of effort is made by wealthier countries to help vaccinate the world because if we don't we could end up back to square one and in lockdown again within 12 months.

Good to see that the SP is responding positively to the results as well. A 4p increase at the time of writing so the results are 'paying dividends' twice. :-)

Are you referring to the 8p divi that was cancelled in 2019/2020?

"31 December 2019 excluded foreseeable charges of £968 million for ordinary dividends (3p per share final dividend and
5p per share special dividend) and £365 million pension contribution."

I can't see 5p mentioned elsewhere in the announcement.

*H1 2021

It's 3p. I'm not sure where 5p comes from.

£364m total payout this dividend with an intention to distribute 40% of attributable profit as dividends each year, with a minimum of £800m distributed each year. If they top up distribution from £364m to £800m in H1 we can expect a further 3.6p at H1 2020 (august).

3p

I think the Barclays results and dividend is having the negative impact on NWG SP today. I very much hope we get more than 1p!
Barclays results (particularly retail bank) were buoyed by the investment bank. NatWest Markets isn't big enough to buoy NatWest Group. Hopefully Commercial Banking will if Retail has suffered.

https://news.sky.com/story/state-backed-natwest-in-talks-to-sell-private-bank-adam-co-12220834