The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
What's the calculation behind the 12 pence? Doesn't seem quite right. I read that the buyback was worth 1p to Shareholders. The SP ended up increasing by 0.75p on the day that the bought back shares were dissolved.
Because the day you get the 3p dividend is the day that the analysts mark down the SP by 3p so you end up in exactly the same position (unless the market moves on the same day to make things either worse or better but that's just a gamble which HMT aren't in the business of).
Relates to failures between Nov 2011 and Oct 2016 with respect to the accounts of a single customer. NWG was notified of the investigation in summer 2017 and has been cooperating with the FCA ever since. It has made "significant multi-year investments in its financial crime systems and controls" since the start of the investigation. Disappointing, but it is a failure from between 5 and 10 years ago that has been addressed now. We have to wait and see what the outcome of the investigation is now.
Sold in 2015 @ £3.30
Sold in 2017 @ £2.71
With that in mind, and the fact that the government has publicly committed to divesting its entire shareholding not at a specific price but by a specific time (2025-2026) then I'm not sure why you would be so confident that the government will not sell below £3-£3.50.
"...chart pattern formed. This bearish signal target price range 129.00 - 134.00.
btw my last two shouts on this have been very close to the target price stated at the time...." (@155.25p on 20th Jan)
I thought this sounded like a crock at the time; couldn't really have been more wrong could it. Looking forward to getting back into that normal 200-250 range now.
Was looking at the 5-year SP history today after the SP reached 188p this morning! Seems very volatile today by the way. Interesting to note over the past 5 years:
50p-100p range - virtually unprecedented, only for about a week in the depths of the pandemic
100p-150p range - only during the pandemic
150p-200p range - only really for a short period when UK voted to leave EU in Summer 2016, and now as we are recovering from the pandemic
200p-250p range - this is the range that SP has sat in for the majority of the past 5 years albeit, over that time, weighed down by the threat of a Labour government wanting to break up the Bank (now gone), and with substantial fears about Brexit being a catastrophe (also now arguably disproven).
250p-300p range - on several occasions and periods between April 2017 and December 2019 just before the pandemic ruined everything
300p-350p range - Only on a couple of occasions in Jan 2018
To my mind there is no reason why this stock would not return comfortably to the 200p-250p range where it has normally sat for the past five years, and lots of good reasons for it to re-enter 250p-300+ range. Just need to keep everything crossed that there is no appearance of teenage mutant ninja covid down the line.
I worked out the dividends based on the £800m minimum distribution and the projected profits shown in the results pack:
3.3p in Aug 2021 and 3.3p in Feb 2022 (based on £800m minimum because profits are projected to be lower)
7.4p in Aug 2022 and 7.4p in Feb 2023
8.2p in Aug 2023 and 8.2p in Feb 2024
My biggest concern though, from a macroeconomic standpoint, is Covid19 running unchecked somewhere like Yemen and then a vaccine-resistant strain mutating which circulates globally like the original did from Wuhan. It will be interesting to see what level of effort is made by wealthier countries to help vaccinate the world because if we don't we could end up back to square one and in lockdown again within 12 months.
Are you referring to the 8p divi that was cancelled in 2019/2020?
"31 December 2019 excluded foreseeable charges of £968 million for ordinary dividends (3p per share final dividend and
5p per share special dividend) and £365 million pension contribution."
I can't see 5p mentioned elsewhere in the announcement.
It's 3p. I'm not sure where 5p comes from.
£364m total payout this dividend with an intention to distribute 40% of attributable profit as dividends each year, with a minimum of £800m distributed each year. If they top up distribution from £364m to £800m in H1 we can expect a further 3.6p at H1 2020 (august).
I think the Barclays results and dividend is having the negative impact on NWG SP today. I very much hope we get more than 1p!
Barclays results (particularly retail bank) were buoyed by the investment bank. NatWest Markets isn't big enough to buoy NatWest Group. Hopefully Commercial Banking will if Retail has suffered.
https://news.sky.com/story/state-backed-natwest-in-talks-to-sell-private-bank-adam-co-12220834
Oh crikey. Yes, I suppose if you bought in at about £4.45 and then they dropped to 20p, and now they're worth about 18p in old money that would probably add up. Well, I hope you got some decent dividend payments in the ISA before they crashed. You might have £1,000 or more if you're lucky.
RBS shares became NatWest Shares at a ratio of 1:1.
However, prior to this, and following the financial crisis, there was an RBS share consolidation in which 10 shares (worth 20p each on Friday 1st June 2012) were consolidated into 1 share with a value of 200p.
So if you had 1347 RBS shares in 2008, they were probably worth £277.40 on 1st June 2012, and were then converted to 134.7 shares worth exactly the same on Wednesday 6th June.
Today, 135 NatWest shares are worth about £240.
There was also a dividend in June 2008 of 33.2p that you may have earned (would be £447.20 on 1347 shares), as well as 13p in April 2019 (£17.55 on 135 shares) and 14p in September 2019 (£18.90 on 135 shares). A little more perhaps if automatic dividend reinvestment was setup.
Good luck with your search.
Oh good point. I mis-read that. Earnings Surprise Prediction. I suspect they will want to return a specified level of excess capital though rather than basing dividend on earnings per share over the last FY period. I'd like to think A J Bell had it closer to the mark at 11p but wouldn't we all! Lets see. :-)