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They announced the regulatory approval of the vaccine and the start of the roll out of the mass-vaccination program and it opened down and then closed 1p up. Not expecting fireworks but that was a little disappointing. SP seems to be responding positively today to Simon Coveney's statement that there is a good chance of a Brexit deal in the coming days.

Given the news.

I would suggest the opposite. The shares shot up when Pfizer announced their vaccine but positive news subsequently doesn't seem to have had much of an effect on the SP. Perhaps if they confirm the start of a major rollout we will have another good day.
On the other hand, if UK/EU announce a trade deal I expect the SP to do very well indeed. If they don't and they confirm that we will move to WTO rules on 1st Jan, I expect we will be in for a bumpy ride. Fingers crossed.

Hi Dinoken. I think if the Government has decided that it intends to fully dispose of its shareholding by 2024-25, then it seems to me that there has been a shift in strategy. It suggests that share price isn't necessarily the main consideration for the Government because they are making a clear commitment that they will sell over the next 3 years or so without knowing what the price will be. I think previously they sold at 330p and latterly at 271p so we know they have appetite to drop by at least 59p from one disposal to the next (so potentially ~212p next time). On both occasions the share sales put downward pressure on the SP but it was a near term depression; the closer we get to 0% government ownership, the more attractive the stock will be, and the more reasons for it to rise.
I think the government will be thinking about how desperate they are for the extra cash, the political optics, and how a share sale would be received by the public before worrying too much about the actual Share Price. I wonder if they have put that statement out recently because they think that the public will be more accepting of a cash injection (disposal) at the expense of crystallising a loss against the backdrop of the pandemic and its economic hit. I think we may well see a disposal in 2021 as long as they can sell reasonably above historic lows (like the recent 98p) and it's not such a slow news year that a disposal becomes the very top story. A big dividend might also help them to argue, in public, that they recouped many millions via that route on top of the payments received for selling the shares.
There will always be a backlash from press and public selling at a loss so I reckon this is all about how much backlash they feel that they can handle. How much of a hit can their approval ratings take. What kind of a position are they in to spin this as a good news story.

In its Economic and Fiscal Outlook this week, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said it was told by the Treasury that the Government intends to 'fully dispose of its RBS shareholding' by 2024-25.

Buying NWG is a little bit like investing in a share of the UK economy. The price of it is driven largely by what investors *think* is going to happen to the UK economy in future more than what is actually happening in the moment. The SP is affected to a degree by the performance of the Bank, but nothing like the way it is affected by news reporting on anything that can be interpreted as having a macroeconomic impact (positive or negative). What appears never to be properly taken into consideration is the Bank's CET1 ratio; it's measure of strength. The SP was sky high back in the days when the CET1 was driven so low that the bank went bankrupt at the first sign of crisis, and it's not fully taken into consideration these days, with the SP having crashed this year and all the while the CET1 was so high that it guaranteed the Bank a safe passage through the pandemic from the beginning. My advice with this one is to pay less attention to Group results (though worth a read), and much more attention on the big ticket news items. If you can predict what the news is going to report in future then you can get ahead of the changes in this SP. Sounds impossible but, for example, a vaccine breakthrough was always going to happen; it was just a matter of time. The next big mover will probably be something to do with Brexit in the coming weeks (i.e. confirmation that we are 'crashing out' when the transition period ends on NYE, or some sort of 11th-hour deal with Barnier). A UK/US trade deal (or not) is also likely to have an effect. Dividends may gradually attract more investors but the Bank will never pay a dividend that could be construed as excessive, and I personally cannot fathom why the SP gets written down by the Analysts on the ex-div date when they don't positively meddle in the SP as the Bank's capital reserves climb. What will be interesting to see is whether the massive level of support and stimulus announced by the Treasury since the pandemic will change the government's appetite in terms of the price at which it is willing to sell its shareholding. Any time UKG sells NWG shares to investors at less than the price it bought for (£5), the Government (and the Bank) will take a reputational hit in the press but the temptation to sell may be greater now given all the billions it has spent this year. Those share sales will always depress the price initially but the closer we get to 0% government ownership the better, and ducking below 50% for the first time will be a major milestone (currently 62.4%).

@thanglan

As at this latest set of results, the Bank is sitting on surplus capital of £7,600,000,000 (£7.6bn). That is to say, that if it offloaded that amount of capital (in which ever way is chose) it would then by sitting at the lower end of its target capital reserves of 13% CET1 (currently sitting at a whopping 17.2%). Compare, for example, with Barclays which is at 13.8% CET1 now.

The bonus pool for 2019 was £305,000,000 (£0.3bn) for all personnel Group globally (inc. Board and ExCo members). So the assertion that the Board is pocketing spare cash and 'feverishly feasting' is not based in any fact.

What the Results Pack says in relation to that £7.6bn excess capital is "Clear intention to return to paying dividends as soon as possible, targeting a pay out ratio of 40% over time" and "Capital return to shareholders is a clear preference with all other options only considered if they provide compelling shareholder value and strategic rationale".

So JimJam is right to expect a dividend in 2021 (assuming regulators allow it) and that the dividend could be quite special indeed. The suggestion by the Chairman that the £2.9bn impairment charge taken this quarter may end up being an over-provision and some of which therefore absorbed back into excess capital is more good news.

@Bristolcupid @jimjam Thanks for the kind words.

@Murdo23 I think a few of us in the same boat. I've taken a 50% hit but I was always going to hold for the long term. I think the 17.2% CET1 ratio even after the provisions is really remarkable and shows how strong the Bank is. Compare to the minimum required by the regulator (4.5%), Barclays (13.8%) HSBC (14.6%) Lloyds (14.2%). Once we are out of the woods with the pandemic there will be no need to hold that much capital so it can be used to buy back shares or return to shareholders.

So we're in the middle of a global pandemic which has caused macro-economic crises and the UK in particular is facing a no-deal Brexit on 31st December. Where exactly do you think the share price should be on the rolling 12 month chart? Somewhere in the middle perhaps? These aren't issues that are within the Bank's control so the question is, how well is it weathering the storm and the answer to that is very well indeed. It went into this crisis better capitalised than almost any other Bank and as a result it is entirely safe right now. Not only that but it is taking many extraordinary measures to play a very positive role in society. It transformed part of its HQ into a food bank where they are preparing 1500 meals a day for NHS staff and charities, they made 330,000 calls to vulnerable customers just to check on their welfare. Virtually the entire Bank globally moved to home working - seamlessly, thanks to its prior investment in remote working capability (other banks have had a nightmare with this). As a customer, I personally needed a mortgage payment holiday early on because I was just about to purchase a Freehold and all my savings were in shares that were shot to ribbons by the pandemic. I can tell you, the experience with NW was superb and the experience with my other financial services providers was awful. NWG helped 240,000 other customers like me to secure a mortgage payment holiday using the same process. They created a dedicated phone line for NHS workers and vulnerable customers. They made £15bn lending available to businesses. They've raised and donated millions to charities over this period. They've appointed Lord Stern to advise on implementing very ambitious climate change targets. To say that the Bank has lost its way and there is total incompetence from the top - what, because the share price is nearing a 12 month low (because of a pandemic and Brexit), just suggests a total lack of understanding about the organisation. The Bank has possibly never in its history had a more sustainable and community-spirited purpose, and it comes under the leadership of the first ever female CEO of a FTSE 100 company who, gender aside, is a genuinely remarkable person, committed to ensuring that the Bank succeeds by way of being a positive force in the communities and the economies that it serves. The emphasis on the pandemic inside the Bank has been massive but not "all of the focus" is on it because there is still a business to run in 26 different countries. And so the name change has gone ahead but the Bank recognises that while its name is important, it is how it does business with its customers that matters. As something like 90%+ of its customers bank with NatWest, the name has changed from RBS Group (and all its connotations with malpractice and the global financial crisis) to NatWest Group. The rebrand has not stopped the Bank from responding to the pandemic at all. It has been successfully spinning many, many plates in tandem.

@BristolCupid - I can't really see the government putting pressure on the Bank to pay it a large dividend because up to this point they have been more interested in the long-term sustainability of the UK finance sector which means Banks being as well capitalised as possible. You're right that the Treasury will be looking at ways to bring in more cash and that might translate into a Government share disposal at a price previously thought to be lower than acceptable. However, large disposals by the government have shown to have downward pressure on the share price, at least in the short term. This one is definitely a long hold but I think once there is a vaccine and the economy finds a way to run in a strong but alternative way to before, and assuming no-deal Brexit on 31st Dec doesn't plunge us into another economic crisis (big IF), we could be looking at some decent gains from about 2022. Biden in Office from this November (or at least Trump out of office) might just help to turn the disaster in the US around as well which will probably be good for the global economy. Who knows, fingers crossed. Good luck all.

I suppose the dip this morning is due to the news about LBG booking a large provision.

For those who are unaware, chat for this stock is now at the below link following ticker change from RBS to NWG:

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=NWG&share=Natwest-Grp

H1 Results are due this Friday morning, 7am. What do we think about overall performance and dividend announcement? Reckon they will shelve the latter again - or are they still disallowed from paying them by the regulator? I can't remember.

Given that coronavirus was mainstream international news since middle of January, and only since Italy in Feb did the markets actually react, I'm going to call them a set of overreactive drama queens rather than incredible foreseers. This will keep going down and could go sub 100p - but it is so, so temporary. It might not recover for months, or even a couple of years (especially if the spread eases off and then we get another round of this next winter). So if you are sitting on a loss but you have time on your side, just hold; you will be back in the money again one day. If you're not in, buy now. If you're sitting on a loss but don't have benefit of time, then it's probably best to accept the loss and come out ASAP. GLA.

For ethical and reputational reasons I cannot see NatWest Group purchasing any of its shares back from HMT. It's one thing for the Government to be all over the news for crystalising a loss to the taxpayer for selling the shares to the market at less than 502p, it's quite another for the Bank to have sold them to the taxpayer for 502p and then buy them back from the taxpayer for anything less (and especially at more than 50% discount). The Bank is all about doing the right thing these days and a directed buyback from HMT specifically, at these prices, would fly in the face of so many of its checks and values.

So I think this is right. The first dividend was 2p at H1. The second was estimated by the bank to be 5p at FY but ended up being 11p. The third dividend was estimated by the Bank to be 3p at H1 and ended up being 14p. This will be the fourth, estimated by the bank to be 10p so I say it will be at least 20p.

I mentioned this in October. Will be interesting to see whether there's any mention of that provision coming down:

"They said that they would need to take a further provision of £600m-£900m for increased PPI claims received just prior to deadline. Then in results today, they've taken the max provision of £900m resulting in an unusually square £8m operating loss. Also it's widely reported that something like >90% of PPI claims do not translate to a pay out. So I wonder whether they've given us the worst possible news for Q3 so as to surprise the market at FY results in a few months time?"

@finlayal61 as SonofRobin says, dividend to be declared in February, and paid in April. The 15p figure is an analyst estimate/expectation. Annual Results due out Friday 14th February.

However, we've gone from ~260p to ~220p since Tory election win without any real justification. Threat of Corbyn Government was one of the main issues that was meant to be weighing on the price. That threat has now been removed we're now worse off than when we thought he might get in. We've had a 15% hit in the space of a month so I'm still p!$$ed.

Been nothing but downhill since the great spike on the morning of the Tory election victory. So bloody dreary. Was reading a forecast about next month's dividend announcement: 14.9p. Something to look forward to at least.