Member Info for JABH

And look at it now! This just goes to show how incredibly no-deal sensitive this stock is. People talk about other factors weighing on share price but they seems to be drop in the ocean compared to the effect no-deal sentiment has. This is all come about because Leo V and Boris had a positive talk yesterday, and EU welcoming the positive signals today. Lets hope they strike a deal!

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/10/06/why-id-dump-the-metro-bank-share-price-and-buy-the-rbs-share-price-right-now/

"Boris Johnson will seek a Brexit extension from the EU if no withdrawal deal is reached by 19 October, government documents say.

The revelation in a Scottish court appears to be a direct contradiction of what the prime minister has said in public, insisting there would be no further delay and that the UK would leave the bloc on 31 October, with or without an agreement."

Could trigger another rally.

Brexit Steering Group (led by Verhofstadt) has said that European Parliament will reject Johnson's deal. So that pushes up the prospect of No Deal again. Further hit to SP perhaps.

Q3 results are announced 1 week before Brexit on 24th October. I can't see the Bank's client base springing into life with new borrowing etc before then, mortgage price war continues, Brexit uncertainty could be at a max, and with additional PPI provision due on the books, it could be dull set of numbers. I did wonder whether it would be wise to short the stock over the next few weeks and then buy back in after Q3 results are announced and possibly after 31st Oct, hopefully at a lower price. But it's such a tricky call to make as you never know what this stock is going to do. We went up to 216.6 on Friday last week, I think, just due to some positive comments from Junker - his position didn't change between then and now and we're treading just above 200 again. No real rhyme or reason to it.

Just look at the Metro SP.
35% down today! Hope no one on here dove into that one after a few posts that seemed to be promoting it.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/09/24/id-sell-this-bank-after-25-fall-and-buy-the-rbs-share-price-today/

Complete joke. Lets hope it rebounds through the day.

It's fantastic news. Interesting that they announced today which is also the dividend payment date. I wonder if that was deliberately timed for some reason. SP is now up 15% since buying ex-div. Happy days.
By the way, is anyone seeing their dividend already? My RBS shares are spread across ComputerShare, X-O, and AJ Bell InvestCentre but I doubt I'll see anything in any of them until next week.

I was thinking about 20th Sept today.

Dividends are paid in cash and presumably that's why the analysts mark the price of the SP down on ex-Div date (i.e. to reflect that, that value is being removed from the business). However, many investors will reinvest that dividend payment to buy more shares (though I don't know what percentage). So on the payment date and in the days that follow we should see the RBS SP deluged with buyers (hopefully pushing the SP up). By the same token there's no reason to suspect any increase in sellers at the same time because not reinvesting the dividend does not involve selling shares. So w/c 23/09 could be good.

This is what we've been waiting for. Long may it continue. +6% today alone!

...and the market taketh away.

More like £5.50 ten years ago.

202 again now! :-)

Last night Boris Johnson was defeated in parliament. Chance of a no-deal becomes less likely again.

I bought £36k's worth at £1.84 (inc. fees) when the SP went Ex-Div recently so it's already gained £1550. However, that is SIPP money and won't be accessible to me for decades (aside from being able to manage it within the SIPP).
I buy £300's worth every month whatever the SP. My average price paid on that lot is £2.47 unfortunately but that will come down as I keep adding at the current price, and every time a dividend is reinvested as well. I occasionally make a larger one-off purchase as well (e.g. once a year when a cash savings plan matures).

They are facing up to £1.8bn in new PPI claims. Yikes!

It's a good point about buyers/sellers. Lots of major investors probably put off UK banks temporarily while they wait to see what Brexit does to the UK economy. For RBS specifically you'd expect them to return as government holding reduces. We need to repeatedly meet (or beat) market expectations in order to lift perception/reputation as well.

If you discount the correction for the dividend payment, RBS traded 8.1% lower in August, but that was broadly inline with FTSE Banks (-9.4%). It was a difficult month due to the macro backdrop, volatile trading across global equities, escalating US-China trade war, unstable political situation in Italy, and growing concerns about no-deal. They all add to investor uncertainty so I think the current SP is much more about the bigger picture than it is about the perception of how the Bank is being run.

Last night Parliament voted to reject another General Election making No Deal on 31/10 even less likely.

I was expecting a slight rise this morning after Boris' defeat in Parliament last night. The SP seems so sensitive to Brexit. Or more specifically, to no deal. Any slight increase in the chance that we avoid No Deal and the SP goes up.
It's kind of counter to my own preference at the moment. I voted remain, but I honestly think the options at this point are either No Deal on 31/10 or many more years of this limbo. I think the years of purgatory are bad for the economy so I'm leaning towards Boris at the moment because I just want the job done. On the flip side I think the Bank's stance is that it wants to avoid No Deal at all costs - despite Jeremy Corbyn recently calling No Deal a bankers' Brexit.