Member Info for JABH

NW/RBS have actually been pivotal in setting up a fund, together with other banks, which aims to provide financial support to customers who - despite all of the education/awareness about how to stay safe online - are still conned into logging into their own accounts and sending money to fraudsters themselves. I don't know any other business that does anything like this. Do you think John Lewis would provide a replacement if some random person knocked on your front door and pursuaded you to hand over your brand new 4K TV? No chance, and no one would expect them to.

Special+Final dividend = 11p per share. However, if you'd sold all your shares at yesterday's high, and bought back at this morning's low, you would have made 22p per share + whatever gains from SP going above this morning's low. Hindsight. :-/

There's also press coverage today reporting that the total cost to the UK taxpayer of rescuing all of the Banks combined is actually in the region of £27bn. As a UK taxpayer I'd say that's a reasonable sum for preventing the collapse of the economy due to the failure of an entire system (banks, borrowers, rating agencies, investors, regulators, government etc).

Previous close 257.10 / current price 265.90. Wonder what happened this time?!

Could this explain it?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/215835/rbs-and-bank-of-america-reportedly-being-sued-by-us-investors-over-european-government-bond-market-cartel-215835.html

I came across this website that forecasts the share price daily over the short term, and monthly over the medium. It's all looking pretty rosey for RBS. Wondered if anyone had any opinions on this site and its forecasts? Reliable, or a load of baloney?

http://poundf.co.uk/rbs-share-price-forecast

The brochure suggests buy back price of less than or equal to 105% of the average midmarket ordinary share quotations for 5 business days preceding the day of the purchase. Seems reasonable. Though admittedly I've struggled to make sense of the bulk of the circular. They could have issued a friendlier version of it since we're not all lawyers. :-/

RBS announced that it will consult with shareholders next month about a share buyback from the government. I understand that rules dictate that the Bank cannot buy back more than 5% of its shares per year. Market has reacted positively. I've also read that any shares bought back will be cancelled, uplifting the cost of the remaining shares.
Would I be correct in thinking that if 5% of shares were bought and cancelled, that would immediately uplift the shareprice by 5%? For example, from 250 to 262.5? Or is that not the correct calculation/effect?

"....the government plans to sell 3.6 billion pounds of RBS shares in the 2019-20 financial year, followed by 2.5 billion pounds in 2020-21, 3.8 billion pounds in 2021-22, 4.7 billion pounds in 2022-23 and 6 billion pounds in 2023-24." :-)

I think "no buy back or special dividend in sight" is perhaps a bit strong.

The results pack does forecast total DPS (ordinary + special) for 2018 at 7p then 13p in 2019; 18p in 2020; and 21p in 2021.

It also forecasts £936m share buyback in 2019; £1027m in 2020, and £875m in 2021.

Consider the Government will also be selling £3bn stake per year over the next 5 years, so full privatisation also well in sight. A great time to stock up and hold I think. :-)

I have to say, I think I-1986 is quite right. There are so many positives to be said for RBS and so the macro-economic concern arising from Brexit is really the only issue that can explain why the SP is at an 18 month low right now and falling. I do wonder whether reporting on a 'brexit extension' since 12th October is partly responsible for the notable deterioration from 249 to 235 between then and now.
There is one other issue facing the Bank which is around the potential threat posed to RBS' market dominance by high-tech start ups. Fintech firms are newly enabled by PSD2 regulation (open banking). However, the bank is doing well at keeping pace with challengers (for example, Bo has been reported in the media, as has its use of AI, acquisition of FreeAgent, launch of Esme and Entrepreneur Accelerator).
The government's 7.7% stake sale also appeared to have a downward pressure on the SP and that has to be repeated every year now for the next 5 years. On the plus side, major investors obviously thought that purchasing £2.6bn worth of shares at 271p was a good investment which should be of some comfort to the rest of us given the current SP.
So I do think the SP will continue to dive in spite of all of RBS' fantastic prospects. But I also think that this means that between now and Q3 2019 is a great time to keep buying the stock. So long as Brexit doesn't actually put the British economy into a spin after 29th March 2019, the investment case for RBS will be at its strongest in more than 10 years and unfettered, as it has been, by legacy issues and macro uncertainty.