Member Info for JABH

Potential to wipe out a third of the Bank's annual profit. Though I read that only 10% of PPI claims actually result in compensation so an extra £600m-£900m provision for claims being processed sounds very high.

https://amp.ft.com/content/0c8d4e84-cede-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

You just have to remember that every time there's a government share sale, the SP will take a hit. And that was scheduled to take place at £3bn a piece over 5 years. So once they eventually re-start sales, we've still got those 5 hits to take. But return to full private ownership will be a great day.
I'm pretty relaxed about the current low. My thinking is that if you keep adding at this price, your average price paid comes down, and then when you add dividends on top, you can end up back in the black again even at this price. Then if the SP goes up you're really in the money. Time in the market, not timing the market, and all that.

@jimjam Yeah, I'm a customer, an employee, and a shareholder. But I'm not an Insider (i.e. I don't receive inside information about RBS securities in the normal course of my role). I don't post anything that's not either public or merely my own opinion. I do think that there is a good investment case for RBS but it's a keeper, not a quick buck. We definitely need brexit and government shareholding to get out of the way, and ideally the trade war too.

I think you'd be surprised at the level of innovation at RBS. I don't know how many branches have been closed but it's at least hundreds, maybe over a thousand. Meanwhile the Bank is spinning up all sorts of new products and ventures at incredible pace. You probably heard about how it acquired FreeAgent recently, and you may have also heard about Bó (www.wearebo.co.uk) which is massive, and the Entrepreneurial Accelerator Hubs. But on top of that you've got Esme Loans (esmeloans.com), Mettle (mettle.co.uk), Tyl (natwest-tyl.com), APtimise (aptimise.com), Path (path.co.uk), Agile Markets (agilemarkets.com), FX Micropay (fxmicropay.com), CurrencyPay (natwestmarkets.currencypay.com), and that's all on top of the main/existing brands and their products: NatWest, NW Markets, NW International, RBS, RBS International, Ulster Bank, Adam & Co, Coutts, JCB Finance, Nordisk Renting, Lombard, Mentor, Invoice Finance, Isle of Man Bank, Child & Co, Drummonds, and Holts Military Banking. There is a lot going on.
I think it says a lot that RBS scores so low in customer satisfaction surveys specifically compared to NatWest. In many cases it's exactly the same service provided by exactly the same people. For example, Internet Banking is virtually the same across the two Banks with a different label on it, and if you have a problem, you chat/speak to the same contact centre staff for both. So I can't help but think that RBS gets scored down by respondents based on preconceptions/reputation relating to the RBS brand rather than the actual service provided.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/08/21/rbs-may-be-smaller-than-barclays-today-but-its-business-model-is-much-more-profitable/#6659a7397d79

Presumably this assumes that Brexit will be disastrous. Or at least very bad for the economy.
What if we leave on 31st October and everything carries on as normal (aside from a few bumps in the road, as Boris puts it)? Or am I being naively optimistic?

London Stock Exchange is down this morning for FTSE 100 and 250 trades. Hence the SP is not moving just now.

I took the plunge this morning and bought more at a slightly-bigger-than-14p discount. I was a bit hasty; just hope it proves to be a good investment over the coming years.

I'm looking to buy more when the SP goes ex-div on Thursday, or within a few days thereafter. But I do feel like a bit of a gambler doing so. I'm working somewhat on the assumption that these 11 weeks prior to 31st Oct are surely the most uncertain times and therefore the SP is bound to be about as low as possible. I suppose it could always go to £1.69 like EU Referendum day but it bounced to £3.02 within 18 months of that; there's no precedent for it to stay so low and TNAV and consensus are both nearer £3.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/rbs-picks-rose-as-first-woman-to-run-major-uk-bank-11781751

Nor do I. But I didn't see it on 21st March either.
SP went down to £1.69 when EU ref was announced so I can see it falling again if No-Deal is definitively confirmed and then again if the economy struggles post-Brexit. But I like to think that, so long as we actually leave on 31/10, we'll be on the way up from 2020/2021 onwards.

Yes, I'm in a similar position. I have some funds sitting in a SIPP as cash which I was minded to convert to RBS shares while they are low but will wait until they've gone ex-Div given how severe the drop was last time. I won't even be allowed to access capital in my SIPP for at least another 20 years so I'd be in it for the long game.

Last time it fell by more than twice the combined dividend. :-/

I don't think much has changed since 2014 in terms of moving registered HO to London in the event that Scotland goes independent. It would need to do so because the Scottish government alone would struggle to rescue a big bank, or its own banking sector, in the event of a crisis. Meanwhile, HMT has proved that it can. That means that RBS would be a riskier borrower if headquartered in an independent Scotland, and would therefore pay more interest to borrow funds. However, registering HO in London wouldn't necessarily mean anything more than that. The Bank has been exiting London (both property and people) as much as possible, and redistributing its workforce in other hub locations throughout Scotland and England.
RBS did successfully apply for banking licences in Netherlands and Germany and now has two fully operational branches in Amsterdam and Frankfurt from which the Chairman confirmed that the Bank can maintain continuity of service under all [Brexit] scenarios.
Generally speaking, NatWest and RBS are not using dissimilar computer systems. The successful merger of the two was one of the biggest IT projects in banking history. However, Royal Bank of Scotland (the UK branch bank) and NatWest Markets (for example) are two completely separate businesses and naturally will be operating completely different systems and applications.

So are we expecting the SP to be marked down a further 14p on 15th August? Last time a dividend was paid, the SP fell by twice the dividend amount on the ex-div date. :-(

Using gender as a slur in 2019. Really.

And all of those outlook factors are brand new information this morning are they?

And the SP has opened 10p down because...?

@Dinoken - Consensus pack on investors.rbs.com has H1 dividend estimate set at 6p. However, I suspect they'll be wanting to generate greater investment by way of exceeding predictions.

Looks like RBS is out of the running for buying Tesco's mortgage book. Disappointing that it didn't win the business but at least it's another chunk of capital that's still in the coffers to do something else with.