Member Info for Ivyspivey

Guess most are just waiting for news

Happy with that

Deep joy,
In some circumstances I would see speaking at an “ investor” event as a probable curtain raiser fir a capital raise but not here.
He has just done a big raise,he has loads of skin in game and they are revenue producing with lots of short term catalysts.
So on balance I see it as a way of creating more widespread investor interest which will only support a drive the SP uowards

Deep joy,
I don’t think I described these deals as transformational just really good CRO contracts and a great validation as I know how much DD goes into this selection process by big pharma.
The transformation bit is 2 fold imo.
Firstly to turning this into a profitable business and that’s where these contracts come in along with other bits of here.
Secondly is the potential to really transform this business into a much larger outfit and that comes from Imutex, the Universal Flu and/ or Mosquito saliva Vax.
You have other great organic value here via the COVID 19 Test tie up,the testing lab,the CRO build up and others.
Plus CF has a proven track record and £2m of his own cash in here so very little downside but plenty of upside.
I do not say this will fly up much more slow and steady but I am very happy with that

Last mention on here as going to do some work.

Why do you always take things so literally.Think most on here realise my “ knocking up in back kitchen” was more reflective of a bit of levity rather than to explain the effort involved in developing a Vax.

Having worked for Merck at a time they worked tirelessly on a HIV Vax I am well aware of the issues why they along with others failed to develop a safe and effective Vax.

It is only a chronic condition due to the effectiveness of current treatments at the time I would call it pretty acute as fir most people it was a death sentence.

Morning,
The people who do not realise the significance of these deals and potential deals really do not understand big pharma.

He refers to one deal involving non COVID Vax with one of top 4 and another potential one next month.

You can see from the list the calibrate of the Company’s we are dealing with whether they are aTop 4 or Top 6 as you can judge size by other criteria than 2019 turnover.

Having worked for 3 of these and currently working for another who has done a recent deal with ORPH it does not matter exactly who these deals are with as they are all huge but there are enough clues if you take the time and trouble to look.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi5mu7Jw4jqAhXTTRUIHSGVBJQQFjASegQICRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fiercepharma.com%2Fspecial-report%2Ftop-20-pharma-companies-by-2019-revenue&usg=AOvVaw1CyCC3HoEsjsfx1UJGPdf4

Morning All,
Inanaco please either leave me out of your posts or stop misleading others as to my views or simply lying for your own purposes.
All we did was suggest that the govt was correct in the first instance engage with expert virologists and concentrate on which efforts were more likely to deliver a possible solution as quickly as possible re a COVID 19 Vax.
So no surprise to us they went for Oxford ChAd and Imperial College efforts.This approach has been totally validated in that they have raised loads of money to develop these Vax plus scale up.
Whereas you think they should have approached SCLP first when no one knew they were making any effort whatsoever.
No one is saying Viral Vax are harder to develop than Cancer Vax but to pretend you knock them up in the back kitchen is ludicrous.
Has there been a Vax developed for HIV hardly and that research has being going on fornearly 40 years.
You quote the Flu Vax.Has anyone come up with a Universal Flu Vax again no one yet.
Totally irrelevant what Oxford effort did vs Flu.Hardly think we have a good track record here of progressing science into clinic.

Of course the science matters but if more importance is to progress that science into trials to get data to get deals.That is what CH and Ruck have said but you seek to change it all as usual by pretending they are misquoted.

Seriously the only thing most people want here is to get some return on their money and hopefully benefit mankind.
You don’t seem interested in anything other than pontificating on about your cut and paste knowledge as you somehow think it elevates you amongst others.
Well I can assure you there are far more you think the reason why you dismiss all others and never engage in balanced debate is due to a combination of ego and failure to acknowledge the very poor performance of the SP over many years.
Fortunately for many of us the recognition and dismissal of your efforts has meant we have been able to salvage some of our investment here so we can view things through an objective prism rather than a narrow minded focus

Afternoon,
Fully understand the decision when you see a SP falling consistently but it is normally one of the worst things to do unless their us a valid reason for doing so like news or suspected need to raise money,neither of which is the case here.
That is why I keep going back to these BoD buys again substantial purchases at much higher levels.
Also the news that they are generating an absolute minimum of €15m a month is a big comfort to me.
As others have said selling when it has already fallen to chase elsewhere is often the worst thing to do but good luck elsewhere and each to their own

More twists and turns but great reading of the letters and thanks to JJ Carter.
Like a huge game of snakes and ladders but nice to be a fireman for a change this morning rather than the Pythons lunch.
ATB

As you say a laughable attempt to get the SP down.
Of course the virus goes down in the summer every epidemiologist and the dogs on the street know that but It will be back with a second wave.
The only way a virus can disappear is with active or passive immunity neither of which will happen until 2021 at the earliest if at all then.
So until that day happens we will need mass testing and that is why the future here looks so good.
When the derampers give their views at least if they have knowledge or insight I would give them credit but when they don’t understand how virus’s evolve then best to keep their mouths shut

Yep is an interesting one as you say normally pharma value would be a risk adjusted DCF /PE ratio or peer valuation.
The risk of not generating these transformational revenue flows over next 6-12 months is extremely low but over the longer period it is dependent on how they best use their cash pile in moving forward and diversifying.
As you say hugely undervalued here

Hi Deas,
Absolutely I don’t profess to be fully aware of all the current financial ratios so was looking at worst case scenario so minimum of €15m cash generated per month when they are selling fewer tests,have not hit additional revenues from new products, do not have loans to pay back,do not have all the up front costs of developing and scaling up the business.
As you say as scale increases the fixed costs become lower and marginal cost likely to decrease over time.
Have a great order book here so just can’t understand why anyone thinks this is undervalued

Morning,
Just checking the last RNSs.
At end of April Cash position was €9.2m and 2nd June was €25m so seems to be generating about €15m a month.
Once the loans have been paid this month moving forward and the potential launch of new treatments this should considerably increase.
Unless I have got something very wrong really don’t see how people can say this is undervalued and yes the long term outlook will be based on how well they spend this money on becoming a diagnostics powerhouse but the next 6-12 months looks extremely good when they can easily generate their current market cap in free cash flow.
The BoD buys are a much clearer indicator to me about the true value here than anything else.

Hi Seadoc,
You may have medical knowledge but your earlier post did appear slanted towards flu being more important than Covid 19 which I have to strongly disagree with.
You are correct one of the prime reason for much of the lockdown action was to prevent the health services from being overwhelmed but it was also to protect the wider population from a global deadly threat.
Firstly this a completely new virus and yes there are other Coronavirus s like SARS and MERS but Covid 19 is also very different in terms of its different genomic profile.
Unlike Flu there is no herd immunity so even the circulation of a new antigenic flu strain can be catered for by including it the annual flu Vax if it is considered a major threat re circulating strains and it is likely pre existing circulation of flu strains and levels of herd immunity will provide adequate protection for the majority of people.
Until of course you get an Approved universal Flu Vax.
There is no such luxury with Covid 19 and no guarantee that we will get an effective Vax for a long while if at all.
Yes the ChAd approach by likes of Oxford was a result of earlier development work on SARS and MERS but they are so distinct from Covid 19 as to how effective a similar Vax will work that is only due to the urgency of the situation that they have pushed forward so hard in the fight vs Covid.
The future SP here will imo be determined by the level of sales of current and future developments.
It is a huge market and NCYT have an excellent test and first mover advantage which is a big benefit.
Any mention of the threat of flu strains is irrelevant again imo in the fight vs Covid 19 and smacks of an attempt to deflect attention away from and raise doubts in people’s minds about the potential here

Morning Cottoner.
Excellent post on importance of Mosquito saliva Vax.
Traditionally you would use the specific antigen or pathogen etc in a Vax to generate the relevant AB response.
The real clever trick here is to use Mosquito saliva which contains a number of important pathogens and understand that the saliva plays a vital role in the transmission of these diseases like Malaria, Zika and others.
So by using the saliva as the vector you can potentially create a universal Vax covering all disease threats and the mosquito is probably the most important parasite source of global disease threats.
With global warming and the threat of mosquito borne diseases becoming much more common in previously unaffected areas like Northern Europe and importantly against a largely naive population you can understand why people are highlighting the importance of this approach.
ATB

Evening always nice debate with Chartists and Fundamentalists and consider both have merit in making decisions of when and what to buy.
I don’t understand charts so make my decisions on the fundamentals.
Sure they both have their place and if people can make money then stick to your strengths and adopt the MO that suits you best but to try and pretend that anyone can predict with certainty how a SP will react Is crystal ball gazing.
Yes the chart may tell you if no news it will drift down to a resistance or support level and then bounce or fall lower but it can’t predict if and when news will come.

Well oiled,
Really good stuff.We just need to hear from ZM as yes we know FRR are stretched for money but the litany of apparent failure to pay lawyers/ management consultant Company and if we are to believe the “arbitration document“ failure to have representation and failure of expert witness,s to turn up.
This action hardly gives you the impression of giving yourself the best chance of proving you have the necessary financial backing and of securing the best chance of winning the arbitration.
ATB

Happy to be corrected but seems to be saying the asset transfer was done without consent of the GG and therefore should not be allowed.

Hi Jonathan,
Whatever the outcome or rights and wrongs of here we should always remember to respect the decisions people have made and to appreciate there are lots of lives deeply affected when these investments go bad.
ATB and best of luck mate

Hi Looed,
Personally I want to see everything posted about FRR and make my own mind up.
As this share is suspended it really makes no difference as to sentiment affecting the SP and yes agree with many that no one should seek to gloat by repetitive posting but at end of day none of us can influence the outcome here.
As it would appear that ZM has made no attempt to communicate with SH and many of our interpretations of events and motives have been disproved when we Actually could access the “ truth” via court documents etc.
I happen to think the arbitration document is basically accurate as really can’t see why anyone would make such a huge effort to “ doctor” it for some nefarious purpose.
The people who will decide the outcome here will know the facts perceived or otherwise and I support the view of Mole about the pressures FRR have operated under.
Any positive outcome here to me is dependent on some form of compromise Which has been in very short supply during this whole episode.
Only my tuppence worth