Member Info for Ivyspivey

Expect some govt publicity especially today with the Greater Manchester situation they will want to promote any “ good news”.

We are doing everything we can to fight coronavirus, including backing our best and brightest scientists and researchers in their hunt for a safe and effective vaccine.

"The funding announced today for these ground-breaking but carefully controlled studies marks an important next step in building on our understanding of the virus and accelerating the development of our most promising vaccines which will ultimately help in beginning our return to normal life."

Think we may break 30p today lol
Confirmation of the great news

Ratty I do not give advice I give my opinions.
How and where I choose to describe someone else is entirely my prerogative and everyone has the right to reply.
I was attempting to build on the humour analogy but of course is totally lost in those with a SoH bypass.
I really think it was quite a minor “ insult” compared to that individuals description of others and your treatment of the likes of Knowlesi.
Many of us have made an attempt to draw a line under past Indiscretions in the hope of having a harmonious board.
I think it has improved enormously in recent days and we can all consider why.Of course there are always people like yourself who merely seek to sow division and destroy that harmony so glass houses and all that.

Funny now appears translation is exactly the same in both articles.
When I read the 2nd one it referred to “ merit less” work being done by FRR and listed more court detail.

This is other one

https://forbes.ge/news/9886/Outrider-Management-We-Spent-Several-Million-Dollars-in-Legal-Defense-to-Protect-Our-Interests-in-Frontera

Thanks Bezzy
Did you notice there are 2 different articles on the subject with different pictures.
Although the text is largely the same there are some small differences

Thanks Ray,
I think your point about developing the mAbs into ADCs especially in reference to CART given the recent recruiting research scientist is most interesting and logical.
I thought SCLP were willing to do deals on the mAbs with or without the platform and I have not seen any reference of whether the “ advanced discussion” included both or not.
Anyway interesting tines

Thanks Ray,
So we may be entering much more trial work in this area.
My logic is to be in advanced discussions both parties must have been in close proximity re “ valuation” so surprised that deal seems to be put in hold for “ value enhancement”.
If the other party who we were originally told has the expertise and experience in this area had 12 months evaluating the suitability of this mAb and decided it was of great interest then would like to know more about why SCLP felt they could add value more than the other party.
To me it is more than just the money.
I do appreciate this deal sets the benchmark for other deals.
Wonder whether the deal just involved the mAb and not the platform as well whereas SCLP now having the money to support the other stuff want to develop the mAbs in conjunction with using the Avidmab platform as part of a deal.

Morning AB et al,
Very interesting posts and whether we think the 2nd Redmile raise was part of some original grand plan or as a result of some game changing event that we are currently unaware of we simply agree to disagree but to me
It does not alter the fact that we are mostly agreed to that it represents a great deal and validation of SCLP.
What I do find heartening is we can discuss these issues in a mature way without resorting to toxic argument.
AB you also mentioned about the mAB deal.
What I would like to know from anyone more acquainted with the science in this area.After looking at this mAb for 12/months and getting into advanced deal discussions with SCLP.
What type of “ value enhancement “ work could be added by SCLP due to getting the extra cash for the negotiations to be ended as per CH Statement.
Hopefully these questions can be answered in the near future.

Swapeler.Yes Sir Jeremy Farrar of Welcome Trust said more likely Q1/21 and they have been quite supportive of idea of HC studies.
The actual SP 1 or 2 weeks is immaterial to me except it is likely to reflect what CF will say the night before on 29 th Oct in terms of updating us on progress.
That is why I am interested.

Hi Trek,
Really appreciate the post and know you are someone who knows about this space and whose views I respect.
Yep there are obvious risks such as over dependence on CF but we are at least protected against him selling for a while.
I am not sure if you are right about these deals being end loaded but happy to be proved wrong.
When you are doing CRO deals rather than commercial pharma deals a decent chunk will be upfront imo.Plus these challenge studies tend to be fairly short compared to more conventional trials so for instance the Merck deal I think is complete now.
I recall CF saying they will have a lot more cash in bank at end of year than mid point so Inthink cash generation is set fair for a long while.
You are correct about the sale prices for the data base and Immutex the harder will decide but I dont think these are priced into SP and are looked upon as bonus’s for any SH to get a windfall from.
We simply don’t know how much they are worth but I feel there are decent reasons for thinking we will get a very good pay off.
Yep you are right about my previous experience and in hindsight I probably was too attached.
It was my first and biggest AIM investment, knew the space had researched backwards,personally knew CEO etc and he was very confident.
I learned very much that there no dead certs and believe you me I have sliced on virtually everyone share I have held due to risk aversion.
This was my biggest at the start and as I have let it run due to continued news and future prospects it remains an important part of my P/F
Yes I am in with a much lower average but still feel there is a long way to go.The beauty here is by the end of 2020 we will know so much more.
In someways I think the biggest risk is just general market liquidity and/ or some landmark adverse event like collapse of a major institution.
Having said that many will switch to defensive Covid related stocks and again in here we have one that ticks all the boxes

Nice post trader.
I suffered a big loss on another share which I was convinced was going to succeed but in fairness it was totally dependent on one outcome. I did not consider it a binary event based on all the evidence which pointed to the chance of success.
When it received the bad news it was due to a reason that no one predicted in advance so eventually I just accepted it was one of the risks you take with any investment.
Everytime there is actual news good or bad I review my investment and here have only had my confidence reinforced by everything CF says.
The only possible future red flags here I would say would be any real anti HC Covid 19 news and any delay or lack of news regarding the Immutex and/ or Genomics data sale before the end of the Year.
That is without adequate explanation.
CF has fully given his timelines for these events as being Q4 and he has a full diary of events lined up to update us all on these events.
He has always been keen to keep us all fully informed and even remaining on track is a big green light as he has always delivered.
The day he stops delivering or keeping his promises is one in which I am sure many of us will consider further but imo he has earned the respect of SH and we are very lucky to have him at the helm and fully aligned with SH

Great post trader.
Showing the history of ICON achieving growth by acquiring “ Niche” CROs.
That is what we are In a big area for ICON.
This is where you need to join the dots.
Within pharma many strategic reviews have taken place both ongoing and during the Covid pandemic to consider how best to operate moving forward.
I know from personal experience that this has happened and also Pfizer decision to really re enter the Vax space.
Likely that Vax and in Particular infectious diseases will become a much more focused area for pharma in the future as likelihood of pandemics. increase.I can guarantee based on the catastrophic consequences of Covid 19 the world will be better prepared next time.
So ICON as well as wanting Infectious disease expertise and capability will be monitoring the areas of growing demand likely to be needed by big pharma.
ORPH is in the perfect storm for all these trends and I think CF as well as doing great deals needs greater recognition of his awareness of how the Covid 19 situation was an opportunity to be seized upon.

I really want people to challenge all the positive views on here as I do not simply want to get caught up in a wave of confirmation bias but I really do not see the downside risk.
I don’t mean just negativity for its own sake but well argued supported by evidence of alternate views.

AB,You raise some important points re TD and Covidity and yes UKRI support will help Derisk project moving forward but it is still at very early stage so still risk which needs to be adjusted in valuation.
Totally agree with you regarding the value that Redmile will bring and importance of their involvement.Also think you are perceptive in that the BoD will have no excuses whatsoever for not progressing the science into trials.
Not saying it is last chance saloon but they have had imo a poor record in this matter for a lot of years so I do think they need to improve.I have no doubt that Redmile will get them to up their game given the level of their investment and if they can’t manage it then changes are likely imo

For many AIM Bio the big end game is a take over or big deal.As we said that is a likely option here.
In addition we are not dependent on it as we can self finance moving forward. We have a very profitable and growing business.We have 2 big likely cash dividend catalysts and and if course all the Covid 19:HC opportunities all in a short time frame.
So yes a great upside and little down side and add in CF and his cost cutting and skin in the game plus his great record of doing deals.

PS GG.In
One with being a strategic fit.Divesting all the non core business like Genome data and Immutex is a key part of nit just achieving value but also positioning for being taken over by a global CRO like ICON.

GG.Totally agree on likes of ICON.
Also believe they already have experience and interest in infectious diseases which make ORPH a real good strategic fit

Thanks Earsbern,
I have not been keeping up with it so apologies.
Have a nice w/ end all

Don’t think anything new here but will post to see if anyone can unearth anything

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiWga2pp7zsAhWrxIUKHTPTAe84ChAWMAV6BAgBEAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.docketbird.com%2Fcourt-cases%2FFrontera-Resources-Corporation-et-al-v-Hope-et-al%2Fcand-3%3A2019-cv-01996&usg=AOvVaw1i680-Ftaih6wNY3zzKcxi

Hi T3,
Great summary.
When you refer to CF videos you can almost compile a box set the number of presentations and I/ vs he does lol