Member Info for Ivyspivey

As you say Demon G the Biondvax news was nothing to do with the 8% rise as was simply imo a bounce back due to being oversold on an excellent earlier RNS re confirming the govt contract.
Did the news not come in after the market closed

PS If you look at phase 2 results for Flu V you will note that it was the Adjuvanted Group that demonstrated the superiority vs the placebo. By using an adjuvant you increase the potency but with less risk reverting to virulence for new strains etc.

Nice article Moniman,
It highlights the issue with traditional Vax.
They work on predicting the strains in circulation so HVN etc the predicted antigens are added to the Vax which stimulates a humoral AB response.
As Flu V targets the cell via the 4 mechanisms it produces a much stronger cell mediated response involving T cells etc and that means if the antigens mutate to form new strains or revert in some way then the Vax will still protect hence the universal Vax

RR The Biondvax results are a reminder of the risks when you expand the numbers into a pivotal trial.
However, any Company that was interested in a Universal Flu Vax beforehand will still be interested as they will know all about the risks of p3 but by buying Flu V relatively cheaply they will escape the much bigger risk of the pre clinical,p1 and p 2 simply to arrive at the stage Flu V is at and at the cost of 1-200m £ plus several years.
They also will become the clear leader to market with all the first mover advantage in a huge market that the first universal Fku Vax wil give.

Hi Sheltie,
Really changed my focus onto bio pharma/ diagnositic especially Covid related since lockdown. Plus a few resources sticks and paid dividends.
Have been in here years though as big TB fan and had a great run in Iqai in the past.
Hope you and Mrs Sheltie are keeping well

Morning,
As Moniman said Immutex is not priced on and is a non core asset so anything we get is a bonus.
Do not forget we have the genomics data base as a 2nd cash dividend.
Both catalysts are imo extremely good additional reasons to keep a hold of your shares as well as the fundamentals that most of us are very familiar with.
I feel it is likely that some SH will sell or slice on any news like we saw when the Govt contract was confirmed and when anyone gets a windfall and the SP could well dip for a short time again to reverse like we have scene.
Of course we don’t know where the SP will be when these catalysts are announced but likely higher and of course it depends on the deal.
So if the wearables deal and Immutex deal was a fair proportion of the market cap or again better and who would bet against CF it could send the SP even higher though my gut reaction would be as it is a cash dividend then on balance I think the SP could fall.
I think the wearables deal will come in first but the Biondvax p3 failure makes FluV a much more valuable asset.
A universal Flu Vax remains a huge prize.We are now arguably the most likely first one to be Approved,Accepting all the risks p3 brings to any Universal Flu candidate.
So if you want to get into the Vax race you have a chance to leapfrog to first place and if more than one want it a bidding war will ensue.
Yes they have to pay for p3 trials but they will have to for any candidate and no guarantees with any approach.They will save themselves several years and huge risk and expense to get to the position Flu V is in so £2-300m so may consider it is worth spending £100/200m or could be much more to get there.
Plus you have the universal Malaria Vax with Immutex as another Bruce bonus.

Not 80% as published

Hi Sheltie,
Good to hear from you.
Yes saw the BRH article and if you read the actual RNS the kill rate figure is 90% not 89% as quoted in article

Agree Moninan.
The risk is on whoever buys it.

Usain they have only done phase 2 and I don’t think they have had their FDA preliminary Meeting hey.
However one pivotal trial should be enough to secure Approval rather than normal two.

Agree Barwickman these phase 3 trials are make or break and carry risk.
The Biondvax results whilst slightly increasing the risk of the next candidate ie Flu V also substantially increase the reward of Flu V in being the first universal Flu Vax to be Approved.
The 2 ways you can formally value these assets is by a risk adjusted DCF measure which means that due to the Biondvax situation the value of Orph will be considerably more or by peer valuation which would be Biondvax pre results and if course that only had one asset and Immutex has two.
At the end if the day it’s value will be determined by what someone is prepared to pay this could rise significantly if a bidding war.

Hi Nom
Hope you enjoy last debate soon.
Now the treatment that Orph has planned as part of HC trial is now Approved by FDA it removes the biggest obstacle imo and should enable smoother and quicker MHRA Approval

Great news for HC Trials.Remdesivir Approved

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-treatment-covid-19

Remdesivir- good news for HC Studies

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-treatment-covid-19

Hi LL,
Yes that could be a likely one and possibly the 3rd candidate.
I always think the way the Govt works is to continue to support the ones they have previously supported.
With these HC slots the Govt has already secured them to commit to the facility so they will be of real benefit to anyone wanting to do the HC studies and fits the criteria.

On that us a p1 intra nasal Vac which was agreed about 2 months ago.
That will be fine at Whitechapel facility and will form no part of Govt slots we are discussing

I simply look at what U.K. based Covid 19 Vax are In the pipeline.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjkh6qZ_MjsAhUPWsAKHXA4D2gQFjAAegQIBBAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gavi.org%2Fvaccineswork%2Fcovid-19-vaccine-race&usg=AOvVaw1q1Vb6NWXzlbRIhAxGqmJ_

You have the two obvious front runners Oxford which is way ahead with p3 so should have readout before HC trials start so you can rule them out unless it is to confirm something.
You have Imperial who are helping with project so think they will be one abd I can only think if 2 other Vax which received UKRI support SCLP and one other and cant remember who it was.
They may use treatments rather than Vax but can’t think of any so just think SCLP May be an option but I am purely speculating.
Off out now

Likewise Bunsie I simply quoted the word back and yes I used it out of context.
I could probably only hate someone if they transgressed me like hurting someone I loved but never for simply disagreeing with me.Like most been called much worse.
Yep once again will try to only concentrate on what unites us and not divides us.
GLA and sorry to the bored folk

Bunsie,
Have you considered what that hatred is based on.
You make comments about me which are based on pure speculation.
I have absolute no ego whatsoever except when challenged by lies.
Bit like if someone said you were not fit to carry the bags to the plane and you said well actually I fly them and someone said what a huge ego you have.
I would not think that but that is how you accuse me of being .
Not a bad judgement on someone you have never met.
If growing up means being tolerant of lies,bigotry,racism,arrogance,ignorance,and just general obnoxious behaviour and don’t forget I have met him Atheneum I am happy to stay a child.
When confronted by uncomfortable truths about people they support they often call it banter well I call it out for what it is and always will stand up for tolerance, respect,honesty and decency.
So if you want to support him fine but leave me out if it

https://t.co/sWglsKOwJB