Member Info for Ivyspivey

Contract with at St George’s

Just saw that and see they are California based so interesting if they are doing work for SCLP

https://go.usa.gov/xGFMd

Trader thanks for info.I thought Remdesivir was already mentioned as being the treatment of choice if required.They would not have access to any mAB therapy and Dextamethazone would only likely be considered if ventilation was required.
As for SP predictions to me it is pointless trying to work out based on anticipated revenue streams on some type of PE valuation.
The only 2 ways if valuing these type if Company’s is a DCF measure which you can do for 2021 but hard beyond that.
The other is peer valuation which again is difficult due to unique capability here but of course the true price is likely to be set by what someone wants to pay whether is for the genomic data base/ Immutex or the value if ORPH as a niche CRO

Hi Ray,
Will be good to get update from SCLP as UKRI support and Cobra Agreement will imo only have added to the confidence of the original timeline

https://news.knowledia.com/IN/en/articles/coronavirus-essential-podcast-new-interest-for-nasally-administered-09d480cbd070b0822973213de9a3a43f5732d579

CDX 005 on track

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/serum-institute-of-india-initiates-manufacturing-of-codagenixs-intranasal-live-attenuated-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-301135221.html?tc=eml_cleartime

Morning All.
GL C7 with your hospital visit.
Yep no point in dissecting every word until AGM though we are all aware of importance of sticking to timelines for these programmes.
Point re not enough patients for trials is much more if an issue with the larger phase 3 trials rather than phase 1 trials

Cazbraz.That was my thought rather than a deal being done.
However it may well be just an oversight rather than a willingness to not pay.

Yep Douve,
Hard to explain on a day when most over Covid related stocks are flying

Hi Ceejay,
The divestment of non core assets in terms of attractiveness to a potential takeover by a global CRO is not about realising value it is about the remaining business being a perfect fit of a niche CRO fitting into the strategic future of a global CRO imo

WF an interesting spot and a sign SCLP see it being a much wider franchise.
Good that they have results date in the diary and look forward to the statements and post results comments.The later the results the more up to date info we get at an exciting time

Employee Incentive Plan

https://www.investegate.co.uk/yourgene-health-plc--ygen-/rns/share-incentive-plan/202010050700060245B/

Results 16th October

Swapeler absolutely right.
I have given up trying to explain the only people who will buy here are likes of Covance or another global CRO.
Big pharma will not be interested in buying Orph lol

AS- not sure DT recovery will have any direct influence on HC studies except to maybe add extra impetus to doing all we can to win this battle ASAP.
Agree with BBD I actually want people to put counter arguments so they can be openly discussed and evaluated.
I think I understand the tenet of Peter’s argument which is for longer term catalysts rather than the very attractive short to medium term newsflow that we anticipate.
I think he does have a point in that once the cash dividends have paid and say the Covid crisis is more manageable say due to a Vax in mid 2021 then many of the current SH will have moved on to seek prospects elsewhere.
I do think there are good prospects moving forward such as renewed interest in Vax via RSV,oncology and potential future pandemic threats and the contacts and validation of ORPH by many of the top pharma Companys should not be underestimated.
However I think the plan will change during the course of 2021 towards an overall sale of ORPH to a more global CRO who will be happy to buy this niche player.
Once the Hvvo Whitechapel facility is full for 2021 then a choice to go for additional capacity could be in the table.I can’t see Orph paying fir a big new facility but that could be taken forward by someone else or the govt financed facility could be utilised in a post Covid workd.
The expertise within Orph both in HC studies and in more conventional CRO activity will be needed in a post Covid workd.
So in the longer term there will be a good future I just think the real game changing catalysts will be in the next 3- 6 months and it is these that will drive the SP to heights many of us desire.
I do think CF will have a final exit plan in mind once this has played out which I think will be a sale to a global CRO.
If you look at CF record and what he has said I think he is a man with a plan which is a much shorter time frame than building it into a long term dividend payer.
What he discovered here and the Covid situation has presented him and us with a golden opportunity to hit the jackpot in a relatively short timeframe. We then have a choice take the bird in hand or stay for the two in the bush.
Unlike a lot of other AIM plays where the real gains are holding long term I think the real value here is with a much shorter timeframe and this is my biggest holding for that reason.ATB

Maybe the Genomic data base would nit fetch current market cap but who knows the figure seems to be $3500 per patient and we have 10s of 1000s of records( so say minimum of 20k) but still $70m and just suppose we do have more and their is a wearables bidding war.

I am so relaxed here if you think the current market cap is fully justified by current contracts etc.Then you have all the upside due to the potential Covid 19 HC studies.
We can talk about the likely valuations of Immutex and the Genomic data base but even at our lowest potential valuations we are talking about a minimum of the market cap for each.
So if someone said we will pay you a minimum of 2x your current holding in cash within the next 3 months and then you will still have your original holding which still represents a great investment what would you say.
It seems almost too good to be true so what am I missing.

I have always thought the listing was always a back up plan if he could not generate a buyer or a high enough offer.

Hi John,
What you ask is almost impossible to answer as a spectacular market fall out could impinge across the board.
However a few caveats that may indicate that here is an ideal stock to put your money in.
1.The fundamentals here and likely game changing short term catalysts here mean that the SP will continue to rise here.
2.The Prospect of 2 big cash dividends is another good reason not to sell.
3.Covid oriented stocks are likely to do very well in any Covid related downturn.Plus the pharma customers of the CRO business are very resilient and cash rich.
4.The need to develop a Covid treatments will be an even higher priority and that will help ORPH.
5.The stock markets will continue to have huge amounts of cash in them as the alternatives are not good abd the QE has meant loads of cash.Can you think of a better place to invest than here.I can’t.
Hope this helps

No worries.You would have to issue an F1 firm to SEC to formally initiate the process.This would have to be RNSd.This in itself would take months of preparation. Then the additional work,picking and agreeing an underwriter etc would take a further few months.
Also the uncertainty over where the markets will be especially with current situation re Trump would affect the timing of any listing.
So to be talking about receiving a cash dividend before Xmas with a high degree of certainty tells me a sale is most likely to happen.