Member Info for Ivyspivey

You asked the question about how you would go about selling Iclaprim into US hospitals.
I have attached a link where one of the questions posed looks at differences between US and US healthcare systems.
It is a different share and is medical devices but may help explain the difference.
Forgive me for posting as is not MTFB related but may be helpful to anyone interested in differences between systems
It was Shan 90 who put this on another board but know he is invested here so thanks to him

https://mobile.twitter.com/VoxPodcast/status/1068634019124969477

Troajan
Thanks for IQAI link

Ukraine Energy-have not listened as not directly relevant to FRR but posted in case anyone wants latest update on Ukraine enegry state

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/webcasts/the-state-of-ukraine-s-energy-sector-2

Hi MTP
Plus the actual SP very rarely reflects the true position as like now it is above bid and ask and she met is it is lower than both.
Throw in the closing UTs often above the actual close so when it opens the next day it falls on the first trade.
Yes we know it is at a low ATM but anyone who pretends there are not games being played here does not follow the trading action like you and me.
Totally agree about the ATs selling into good news like on p3 results and Ian’s point about normal low volumes.
You can do that on p3 where yes it should really kick on but you know there will be a lull before next news.
Once we get close to PDUFA I think it will be far more difficult to cntrol the SP here ssssuming successful as the final Approval barrier will be passed and a clear rn to commercialisation

Just looked and see he is on main BOD as well

Bayer will invest more in research partnerships with outside groups, Baumann said. But the company will also seek partners with experimental medicines that are already close to the market, he said. Bayer’s $1.55 billion licensing deal last year with Loxo Oncology Inc., which gave it its most promising new cancer medicine, shows how costly such late-stage drug partnerships can be.

https://total-market-solutions.com/2018/11/29/malcy-talks-oil-gas-vi/

Not listened as have to go out

Pony=point in the note.Predictive text eh

Ruck
Think they are saying the 4.8p for SCIB 1 is current ie 2018 and not 2024 valuation and make that pony in the note.
Inan makes a couple of good points re Moditope and how it has become more valuable.
All interesting stuff

Find p20 really interesting as they value Modit 1 3x more than SCIB1 and to start generating revenue only 1 year later.
They also assign a risk factor of half that of SCIB 1 which is significant given both the stage of Moditope compared to the compelling data of SCIB1 and of course 3 years ago RG said I’m obody was worth 9x Moditope st that particular time.
Imo gives a really strong indication of how the thinking of SCLP in developing the platforms has changed and how they see the value drivers in the future,

Last bit =reducing risk factor

Hi Inanaco
I did list the caveat that it is only worth what someone is willing to pay and how much they value the IP which can be anything.
The DCF measurement used by Trinity is not comparing effective cavy or Techniology.
It is a very standard Pharma way of valuing pre revenue generating Company’s like SCLP.It simply makes an informed forecast of anticipated future sales ( most likely to have got these numbers from information supplied by SCLP) and then applies the appropriate risk factor in this case 20% for SCIB 1 so at this stage in trial process a 1 in 5 chance of getting Approved,
You are right in that it does not distinguish between efficacy simply reflects past and current experience of similar type drugs in the process.
That us why it will class Moditope as being high risk as until it has started me clinical results these will be largely discounted however good the pre clinical results are.
Proof of pudding will be in trial results which if positive will be hugely instrumental in increasing potential revenue figures and red cloud be rudk favtor

Sure SCLP will be paying in some form for research as is all about promoting SCLP but is independent in that they will have experience of standard pharma risk factors which they have applied to the he DCF analysis.
This is standard pharma valuation of pre revenue generating Company’s and is usually more accurate than ever valuations as was said earlier very difficult to compare different Company’s technology’s.
But st the end was f the da it is what the IP is worth and what somebody isvwilling to pay.
Either way the catalys to a rerate is the trial data

My faith is built on my knowledge of the fundamentals here and my trust in the BOD.Like many have given up on trying to predict the games at play here but at some stage true value will be reflected here and the PDUFA date is a clear milestone.
I accept the risk/reward of the decision and will remain patient until I decide otherwise.
The presence of a lot of big players with a lot higher average than here and who have remained steadfastly supportive is further evidence imo to remain patient

Who knows what are buys and sells ?
Take today 8 trades 5 of which are ATs made within seconds of each other by bots.Hatly a true reflection of normal trades.

The delay in submitting NDA was announced earlier in year to give best possible chance of being accepted.You only get one chance and of course it was successful.The prime requirement of a CEO imo is to protect the Company which has to be in the interests of LTH but maybe not short term traders or those that want a low entry.
GL is by his nature considered and likes options and fully knows to get the best deal you have to be patient.So there is no rush to get HABP trials done or submit MAA as true value inflection points are some way off for those and need to preserve cash is important both to put them in a much stronger negotiating position and also to possibly start US pre commercialisation activities which is a very sensible option.
The timeline will be driven by US Approval and commercialisation pathway.
The PDUFA date of 13th Feb is fast approaching and that even the oracle cannot say that will be delayed.
As for slight gains vs Vancomycin.It does not matter these were the Confidence Limits set by FDA re Non inferiority Phase 3 protocols.Iclaprim successfully passed.
We are not competing with Vancomycin our target market is a large one not niche son$2.8bn addressable in ABSSSI alone so yes you need to understand the approach here

https://www.investegate.co.uk/iq-ai-limited--iqai-/rns/imaging-biometrics--update/201811280700026455I/

FRR involvement.
Live entertainment is Puddy s area of the expertise

But no FRR invited live entertainment but some familiar names.Wonder if SN will be in audience

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/upcoming-events/detail/1-the-state-of-ukraine%E2%80%99s-energy-sector

Hi Jimzi,
You need to a combination of things.Persuade the decision makers Doctors,Pharmacists and Administartors to include Iclaprim in their drug formulary and the protocols it will be used in for eg first line.Has to be included as part of AB Stewardship Policy.That is in each hospital and/or Group.
At same time you need to get agreement with reimbursement organisations like insurers to get their take and influence on things.
That is why economists of model is important because these decisions are not just clinical ones.
Hope this helps