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To give an idea of the current trading range ;
- Mid Dec 23 the price rises from 2.8p to 4.5p by late Dec 23.
- By 12/01/24 it falls to 3.5p and then rises back to a double resistance top of 4.5p on 17/01/24.
- It then falls to 2.6p by 1/03/24 and then rises yet again to the resistance top of 4.5p on 18/03/24.
- It then falls to 3.5p by 09/04/24.
- It then rises to 4.4p by 12/04/24.
- It then falls to 2.5p on 25/04/24 and then 2.9p at today's date.....
Cybertron another one who knows nothing about how algorithmic trading bots kick in with small cap penny shares on news catalysts, and then when certain parameters are reached which they are programmed to act on, they dump the shares. Or conversely, if the news catalyst is analysed as being 'negative' they immediately short and then buy back.
Why do you think we had that small bounce following the sharp drop on the open straight after the last RNS ? Nothing to do with a mass of shorts buying to close their position then ?
For now this is a trader's stock, and it's range bound. Computer bots and human short term traders work with technical analysis, and particularly with support and resistance levels.
Cybertron ; nope, it's because for years it's been a trader's share, but I don't expect that you know much about that.
NicetoMichu ; I would have to say that after years as a LTH of MATD, you are 100% correct when you say that range trading is the way to play such shares. Foolishly, for most of the time that I have held shares I have not kept a close eye on charts - I only started doing this about a year ago. That was a big mistake, because it has been range bound for years.
Over many years the share price has bounced around between pretty well defined support and resistance levels, and frankly if I had traded those levels over the last 4 years then I would be massively in profit by now.
Back last May I briefly sat on a fat profit when it hit 7 or 8p, but foolishly just did nothing. And of course at such times the rampers create lots of FOMO sentiment ; ' jump in now guys this is soaring, and it will be 20p next week ' etc. In reality there have been lots of spikes on news catalysts, but every time the share price has plummeted back down to some kind of support level.
Roxy ; I think it will turn around, but as you say, a raise is pretty well inevitable now. The question is how much will the raise be for, and at what price ?
I think there will be more clarification by MB during the AGM about what is now actually holding up the land access paperwork, so all should become a lot clearer than was apparent in the typically rather cryptic RNS release.
Aeschylus ; there are some typos on the PM website I notice - so I don't have massive confidence in the integrity of the proof reading, whoever is responsible for it. It's not a good look.
To simply call an Isle of Man or UK incorporated company a ' parent company ' makes no sense to me - a parent company of whom exactly ? It's terminology used when talking about having a subsidiary company.
Doc83 ; at the end of the day we are both investors and hopefully it will still work out for us. It has been a very frustrating ride though. What I have learnt most from this saga since I first invested in 2019 is the wisdom of some advice that I recently read in a book about small cap biotech or exploration companies. If there's a sudden price spike on a news catalyst then take out your initial capital and keep the profit invested. That way even in the worst case possible scenario of the company going bust, you are only risking your paper profit. If I had know this at the beginning, and stuck to that advice then it would have been a far less stressful and low risk experience.
Doc83 ; well both can't be true. The Petrovis Group claim on their website that MATD is their subsidiary, whereas the Petro Matad website claims that the Isle of Man company is the parent company. If you are incorporated, but not part of a subsidiary, then you would not describe yourself as ' a parent company ' so that makes no sense to me. I would hazard a guess that the MATD site is incorrect.
We know that Petro Matad is incorporated in the Isle of Man - but as I said before, in order to list on the LSE it would have been necessary to create a subsidiary, though clearly it's not a UK incorporation.
Professional ; see what Aeschylus wrote. Seemingly he has done some homework into who was behind what may well be fake news, rather than just automatically taking it on board because it fits in with a narrative of wanting to portray MATD's immediate prospects in the worst possible light on here.
Doc 83 ; it's a subsidiary - so if a UK company created a subsidiary in say France, then it would have to incorporate an entity in France, and then be subject to French subsidiary laws regarding the subsidiary and the parent company. It doesn't alter the fact that it the UK parent company which funds the French entity, runs it and funds it.
Clearly in order to list on the LSE ( the first Mongolian business to do so ) Petrovis had to create an entity over here - and for tax purposes the best option was an Isle of Man incorporation. Isle of Man company or not - the parent company of the Isle of Man subsidiary is a private Mongolian company which has sold oil and fuel in Mongolia for decades.
Aeschylus ; thanks - that's a good observation.
BP : Like I said - the Petrovis Group are keen to trumpet their subsidiary on their website. It's not surprising, as it's massive kudos for a company which has imported its oil for decades to become an oil explorer and then produce from within Mongolia. They set it up 20 years ago, and have invested heavily in the subsidiary. Why would they let it run out of funds ?
And the activists seem unaware of who MATD are - all this nonsense about being ' Canadian owned ' or whatever. Presumably this nonsense has been typical of the hysterical falsehoods which they have recently been peddling at the district committee offices and online, and which MATD have had to spend time and energy correcting - as per what was stated in the RNS.
Notpleb ; Thanks for the sarcasm - however given that some people on here ( Docs83 for example ) seem to frequently raise panic by giving the impression that MATD is some kind 'foreign enterprise, ' which the Mongolians are keen to sabotage, it's not a bad idea to remind some people that it was founded by the Petrovis Group, is a subsidiary of the Petrvis Group, and is majority owned by the Petrovis Group.
This also has a bearing on funding, and whether the company could ever go to the wall. Are Petrovis likely to let their subsidiary which they have invested heavily in go bust/run out of funds ? As others have mentioned on here, a raise is not the only option for funding, as Petrovis may decide to provide a loan to its subsidiary in order to protect its existing investment.
It also has a bearing on this new law that's ben passed, which people are panicking about. Presumably a Mongolian subsidiary which is majority owned by a Mongolian private company would not be such an easy target as a foreign owned oil company ? Petrovis must be very well known and generally held in high esteem in Mongolia, and their executive staff must hold a lot of sway with the government one would presume.
Doc83 - you are losing sight of the fact that MATD is predominantly owned by the largest privately owned oil and fuel company in Mongolia. And MATD is actually a subsidiary of Petrovis - look at their website.
It may be listed on the LSE, but as per the Petrovis website, it is has ' predominantly Mongolian ownership. '
Has everybody seen this on the Petrovis website ? ;
https://en.petrovis.mn/subsidiaries
I hadn't realised that PM is actually a subsidiary of Petrovis. Frankly I'm amazed that senior people at Petrovis don't get more closely involved with sorting issues out for MATD. And do the activists even realise that MATD is a subsidiary of the biggest Mongolian privately owned oil and fuel company ? They seem to make xenophobic remarks about ' foreigners ' exploiting the natural resources of Mongolia. Contrast this with PetroChina, who are a Chinese state owned company.
So the RNS read ;
"Petro Matad has been working to correct misinformation about the Company from local activists and protesters that have been critical of oil production operations in the area for some time, protesting online and in person against the committee's decision. "
Staff at PM are almost certainly closely monitoring anything that the activists post online - after all, people on here do it. However the reference to 'in person ' must relate to angry activists turning up at the district authority offices, and probably confronting members of the committee which voted in favour of MATD. However, MATD presumably wouldn't have known about these ' in person ' protests when they happened.
The RNS also stated ;
"Petro Matad has been working to correct misinformation about the Company from local activists and protesters. "
I am guessing then that when the activists aggressively protested in person at the district offices, that they may have handed over written falsehoods /allegations about MATD and verbally made allegations too. Presumably the district officials have felt duty bound to look into these false facts/accusations. MATD would then probably have been contacted by the officials, and asked to respond to the claims of the activists - hence what was stated in the RNS. All this will have taken time, especially with the sclerotic Mongolian bureaucracy at work.
So let's see what MB says in the AGM - but I'm guessing that this is what has held up the land access docs from being signed. I find it hard to believe that activists can reverse the decision made when the district committee voted in favour of MATD. Could you imagine a planning committee in the UK changing its mind about a planning decision because some nimbies got upset about the decision and remonstrated loudly at the local authority's offices ?
Professional - if you are a proper trader then I am a Mongolian chef.
No pro trader would ever talk about ' graphs. ' Do you think pro traders still work with graph paper hand drawing bars and candles etc ?
'professional ' I hope you referred to your ' graphs ' as you call them prior to doing your short....and what happened to the short you could have done from 4.4p all the way down to 2.5p ? That would have been a 40% gain if timed right. And now after the action is over you talk about doing ' a small short. '
A trader who doesn't know about charts or technical analysis is like someone who claims to be a pilot but can't read an aircraft's instruments as he thinks they are a waste of time....
Prophetus ; I agree about ' professional. ' You will notice that he had a chance to short at around 4.4p and then exit the trade along with the algorithmic trading bots and the other traders who shorted yesterday immediately after the RNS. So at the bottom soon after the open yesterday. he could have exited his short at around 2.5p, which is a 42% profit if timed right. Yet he hasn't said anything, as he didn't actually do the short...He's just a troll.
By the way, the support level that the price spiked down to yesterday morning was a previous support level from mid November. Technical analysis of price action is predictable because it is a universal language used by all traders - support and resistance levels are the same whether you are trading in Europe, the US, Singapore or Japan.
My guess is that the district land access permission will be signed soon, as this fuss surrounding the activists seems to be more related to the activities of Petro China. I did think it odd by the way that the last RNS did not refer to the payment having been made to the herds people - many on here seemed convinced that the payment had been made.
Some people on here are saying that the Mongolian government are trying to make PM go bust - yet hasn't the special purpose tripartite agreement already been signed by the relevant ministry ? As ever, it's the provincial governor who has blocked PM through not yet signing this agreement. Seemingly he belongs to a communist party, so my guess is that he's just plain hostile towards western capitalist enterprises and investors operating in his country. Plus, the surrounding oil fields are being exploited by a communist state owned enterprise, so who knows what goes on behind the scenes between them.
Hamm - you did say before the second to last RNS that people should buy ' as there is no risk ' to use your exact words....This was before we even knew that the District committee had voted in favour of the land access.....
Amidst all the anger and near hysteria, has anybody noticed that the sells totalled £154,00 and the buys £298,000 today ...? That's according to the figures shown here on LSE.
How can that be I hear you ask given that the share price fell sharply, and was down 12% ? Well, if you look at the bar/candle for today on a chart, it has done a 'hammer ' in candlestick terminology. This means that the share price was marked sharply down to 2.5p at the open, but then finished the day quite a bit higher at 2.95p. This very likely means that after the sell off at the open as the algo trading bots analysed the news, and then reacted with a flood of shorts, a wave of buying then set in for the rest of the day up to the close. In other words demand came in and surged at that lower price level.
Volume in the first hour was 8.29m, and then it stayed much lower for each hour up to the close - so therefore more like normal volume levels. Volume for the day was 16.64m, which is similar to the 18m volume level on the day of the last RNS release. Normal daily volume levels are around the 3m mark.
Like I've mentioned on here before, these types of penny stocks are heavily traded by short term traders, including the city algo bots which analyse news item catalysts when they come out, and then trade on them at lightning speed. That's why a news catalyst creates a sudden surge of volume on the open straight after an RNS. IMO the main thing is to look at the price action and then try to understand what is happening - however I get the impression that some on here are completely unaware of this kind of thing.
Some people like to think of themselves as sophisticated investors, but seem to have done no homework with charts and price action - they think that all the volatility of a penny stock's price action can solely be explained by mainly retail investors reacting to fundamentals. The reality though is that traders, whether human or algo bot driven computers love volatility - that's all that matters to them, as they can go long or short. They don't care about a company particularly, or what it does even - all they are looking for is a news catalyst and the high volume which goes with it. Both together mean volatility.