Member Info for investor33

Sorry about that - I have a tendency to jumble up numbers when I write about years for some reason. Lol.

2024 not 2014.

Proquo ; I seem to remember some kind of interview with MB in 2014 in which it was stated that the aim was to do six plus wells every year after production started. In reality it has been one well per annum.

I don't know how back then they thought they could finance say 10 drills @ 1.5m each with say a 60% success rate, and then another 2.5m to complete the 6 successful drills, but anyway.

There has been too much over promising in the past, and that needs to change.

Presumably you will get a massive short squeeze in the oil derivatives market once the physical inventory is exhausted. All those traders who bet heavily on a resolution to the conflict through shorting with derivative contracts will have to buy back to exit their contracts in a great hurry, or suffer huge losses. So you could get a monumental and very sudden short squeeze.

"Despite a historic physical supply deficit caused by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the futures market (paper oil) has remained artificially suppressed. This lag is driven by speculative traders heavily shorting futures contracts on premature hopes of a ceasefire and a quick U.S.-Iran diplomatic resolution. However, physical inventory cushions are almost completely exhausted, setting up a massive looming correction. "

"The oil market is divided primarily into two distinct tiers:

The Futures & Derivatives Market: Traded heavily on exchanges like the CME Group (trading NYMEX WTI crude) and the ICE (trading Brent crude). These contracts allow producers to hedge prices and speculators to bet on market movements. Less than 1% to 3% of these contracts ever result in actual physical delivery; the rest are closed out or rolled over for cash settlement before expiration.

The Physical Market: Refers to the actual physical buying and selling of real crude oil between producers, refiners, and traders. While it accounts for a tiny fraction of total financial trading volume, it directly influences the benchmark prices set in the futures markets."

"In the global petroleum market, the vast majority of oil traded (over 90%) is "paper" oil—primarily via futures contracts and derivatives—rather than physical barrels. The total volume of futures contracts traded daily can be 10 to 30 times greater than the physical world's actual daily oil production and consumption. "

Interesting the disconnect between oil future contract prices and the physical reality of what is happening. A reckoning may come soon ;

https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:2fd650d8e094b:0-brent-may-surge-to-150-as-inventories-collapse-hormuz-stays-shut/

As far as I'm concerned, PC have always paid in the past, albeit always massively late. Even the 30% issue was eventually resolved and paid about about 15 or 16 months after production first started. Hence, I've no doubt that the contract will be signed, and that they will pay up. However, for 2027 until the refinery comes online, I think that the company needs to use the oil traders that they have been in touch with - it's a pretty well nailed on cert that in 2027 the same kind of thing will happen for a third year running. I'm wondering whether they are simply trying to maximise the storage charges through sharp practice.

A key point to remember is that the Mongolian government is also owed money by PC through the profit sharing contract -I'm actually quite surprised that the government seemingly hasn't stepped in by now and read the riot act to PC.

I just pray that a farm out or buy out doesn't involve PC, as they are a real nightmare.

BP ; " won't the price be set at the time of delivery not the time of payment? "

So logically why did MB talk about them being relaxed about the payment timescale, due to the company benefitting from the uplift in the oil price since the start of the year ? Doh....

It's a question which I wish had been asked during the AGM.

I sent an email late last week asking, among other things, whether they are allowed to tell us when the counterparty first started reprocessing the data. It would be interesting to know roughly how much time has elapsed since this entity first started this process, or at least when MATD were first informed about this. 10 days have already elapsed since we were told about this during the AGM.

Not too bad thanks Proquo. We've had so much rain in the UK in the last week or so though. Hope it's been a bit better over in France...

Well said Proquo.

BP must have severe cognitive dissonance to claim that he owns shares and yet always seems to talk down the company and its future prospects.

Or maybe like a few of the trolls we've had on here - he's an attention seeking malignant narcissist ?

Narcissists often enjoy trying to upset and disturb other people, as it tends to garner them attention. Narcissists crave attention more than anything.

This is the problem though when you have armchair CEOs who through Dunning Kruger always think that things are so simple, and that they could do a better job. The fact is that we have no idea what kind of hours the company's staff put in, nor the complexities of what they have to deal with.

Master ; you could spend an entire winter trying to book in a general builder for a project you want started in spring, however if that builder has potential clients with bigger jobs and budgets, and if those projects are a distance from your project, then you would have to just join the queue and wait.

Spring and early summer are the busiest times of year for any kind of outside work, whether it be building contractors or oil contractors. And MATD is a small outfit compared to an oil major. Plus the geopolitical situation will have made it worse.

You've obviously never had any experience of trying to book tradespeople in the UK. My neighbours had to wait a year and a half before some builders could start on their extension. I'm sure that the same principle applies in the oil industry - in the last couple of years DQE have always started later in the year, probably after they have completed their bigger jobs.

Abzzba ; his figures also assume that a possible oil major farmee couldn't drill and finish wells for far less than DQE charge.

And reposting his calcs hasn't changed my point that a possible farmee is not going to base their calculations on hitting 5,000 barrels in say 5 years, rather long term they will have their eyes very much on the lifespan of a field, which will be around 20 to 25 years. It's total profit over that kind of period which has made block 19 such a lucrative purchase for PC in block 19, even if they had some hefty initial expenditure in the first few years after the bought it in 2005. The same kind of principle would apply to a farmee - even though in this scenario they would be sharing the profits.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Long-Can-Demand-Destruction-Keep-a-Lid-on-Oil-Prices.html

Have just sent an email to the company about kr1988.