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The silence from the company is deafening....

Note " ongoing farm out negotiations" meaning that as a bare minimum they are still happening. No mention of them having failed, which anyway would have triggered an RNS.

An RNS for a successful conclusion on the other hand would presumably only become necessary straight after the contracts were signed. And the permission of the MG is also required, so until they ratify a deal there is presumably no requirement for the company to RNS the news.

Hamm ; when will you learn to notice the spread ? It's around 8% at the moment. The MMs frequently mess around with the bid when they open up the spread.

It's quite possible that a farm out or buy out have been pretty much agreed, but there are two options on the table - one for just Heron, and the other option for Heron plus an agreement taking into account a successful Gobi test. So the terms of the different options will vary according to what happens at Gobi.

A buy out of course would have to relate to the whole of Block XX. Heron can't just be sold off on its own, however presumably a farm out could just involve Heron..

When people talk about a farmee carrying costs for 4 to 5 wells etc, don't forget that first you have to successfully drill, and in block 19 the hit rate has apparently been about 60%.

So the farmee also needs to be financing the unsuccessful drills as well as the 4m per well to complete one. However a great advantage might be if the farmee can do the drilling and the well finishing much cheaper than DQE have been charging us.

Interesting to read what AI considers the pros and cons to be. I presume that the unprofitability part is now inaccurate with the current oil price. Plus with the refinery being nearly built, the risk of relying on Chinese infrastructure for oil sales will soon be gone ;

1. The Investment Upside (Bull Case)

First-Ever Oil Revenue: Petro Matad marked a historic milestone by shifting from pure exploration to commercial production. The company began generating consistent income from its Heron-1 well and the Gazelle-1 well in Block XX.

Resolved Payment Bottlenecks: In early 2026, the company successfully recovered $1.03 million in production revenue that had been temporarily withheld by its refining partner, PetroChina. This considerably improved short-term cash flow sentiment.

Debt-Free Balance Sheet: Uniquely for a junior oil explorer, Petro Matad carries zero debt. It funds its current operations through equity raises and incoming oil sales, minimizing the risk of a debt-driven insolvency.

Diversification into Renewables: Through its joint venture, SunSteppe, the company is advancing a 200MW hybrid wind-solar project aiming for Ready-to-Build status. This offers a hedge against long-term fossil fuel declines.

2. The Investment Downsides (Bear Case)

Persistently Unprofitable: Despite booking revenue, the company posted a net loss of $1.7 million for its last reported half-year and analyst consensus indicates it is no longer expected to breakeven in the immediate future.

Extreme Share Volatility: Traded on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), the stock is highly illiquid and volatile. Its price moves an average of 11% per week, making it prone to massive short-term drops on minor market news.

Dilution Risk: To fund its capital expenditure, the company frequently relies on issuing new equity. Shareholders faced 25% dilution following major share placements designed to keep the company funded.

Geopolitical & Infrastructure Risk: Landlocked in Mongolia, the company relies entirely on infrastructure tied to China (primarily PetroChina) to commercialize and export its crude. Any regulatory shift or border friction directly threatens its revenue pipeline.

The Analyst Outlook

Broker sentiment remains leaning toward a speculative "Buy" or "Strong Buy" due to the company's vast resource base in the Heron field (estimated 194 million barrels of oil in place). However, retail platforms like AJ Bell routinely classify it as high-risk, emphasizing that it should only account for a small, non-essential portion of a diversified portfolio.

Re Georgina Energy. If you bought in at around 8p yesterday at midday then by now you would be sweating over whether the share price is in a healthy pullback,or in the middle of the dump part of a pump and dump...that's the thing which is hard to know.

Welcome to the lovely AIM. 😯

It would be crazy to have signed a MOU with PC and them then delaying signing the 2026 sales agreement, and delaying payments like they did last year. They didn't pay up until mid June last year, after 8 or 9 months of production at H1.

TBT ; I agree. I was just jesting.

Just thinking - if a farm out is going ahead, why would the other party not want us to go ahead anyway with probably pre booked work on H2, Gobi etc ?

TBT ; careful what you wish for - you realise that a buy out at that kind of share price would turn Master into an instant multi millionaire ? 😯

That's assuming he holds around 20m shares @ around 4p of course...I suspect he probably does.

One things for sure - they have delayed everything for as long as possible - both the AGM and an RNS. We will no doubt find out why next week.

" got out " I meant.

Re GEX - I guess if someone bought in at midday at nearly 8p, and then found that that by 4pm the share price was 5.8p then they wouldn't be that happy.

I traded Met1 last year for a day or two and made a few grand. If I had held long term then I would have been wiped out. It just depends whether it's a genuine pump and dump on hype, or just a pull back before resuming. Met1 was the mother of all spikes, but luckily I get out at the right time with a decent profit.

CW ; in and out within one day or so is trading.

Those who jumped into Georgina Energy on all the hype have just found out what a typical AIM pump and dump looks like....

""At this market capitalisation circa £24 million"

£22 now ! "

Probably because the MMs have widened the spread to 8.3%. When they want some sells they always widen the spread through dropping the bid. They can buy on the bid and sell on the ask, so it's neat business for them if they are trading some of their inventory.

If you look at a company such as Georgina Energy - it was about 18p in late 2024. In January it was about 2.5p.

A relative recent success story such as EEE was over £6.00 back in 2010, yet went as low as 0.9p in 2020. A year ago last May it had bounced up to 9.5p, and then in Sept last year in hit just over 70p. Now it's 33p.

Aim is not for the faint hearted !

Quelfromage ; I was looking at a long term chart yesterday on Barchart.com.

It really struck me how tiny and muted the price action as reflected in bars/candlesticks have been since production began compared to the enormous bars/candles in both directions during the last few exploration years. It makes me think that most of the speculative money went elsewhere once production began, and in the absence of institutional money, there hasn't been much left since in terms of volume. The success of gold stocks last year would have had something to do with that very likely.

That's why IMO we need a farm out deal in order to get the speculative money to plough back in again and start creating some decent volume levels. Volume levels always used to spike straight after an RNS in the exploration days, as most of the volume during the years of huge price spikes was driven mainly by traders.

Essentially, Aim is mainly a trader's playground - take a look at a load of charts for some Aim shares and you will see dizzying price action. And often the ones which have done well recently will most likely have had some enormous price drops in the last 5 to 10 years before they started to recover again.

Not sure if there has ever been an RNS release on a Friday before. Have we ever had an after market one ?

With a bank holiday this Monday, I'm not sure how people are going to be able to submit meaningful questions before the 26th deadline when operationally so much is in the air...