The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
This article is a US one - however the principles are the same regarding pump and dump penny stocks ; https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-pump-dump-stocks-hedge-144707244.html
As the article mentions ;
"It's important to clarify that calling these companies "pump and dump stocks" does not mean these firms don't have any solid fundamentals or long-term growth catalysts. We call them pump and dump purely due to their volatility and high risk."
Just out of interest, the last decent rise of any consequence was back in May last year, when it briefly spiked at just over 7p. So almost a year now.
For now this is a classic trader's pump and dump share, and frankly until meaningful activity is announced for Heron 1 it will probably stay that way. Traders love volatility more than anything. Some on here though still talk about it as though it is a blue chip share, driven mainly by fundamentals - hence the puzzlement about the drop today. Next support is 3.2p. which it has touched a couple of times in the last 6 months.
Cybertron - fair enough. No worries.
Thornogson ; it's the same on sports forums. Men bickering and trying to get one up on each other.
The trouble is that us men tend to attach our sometimes bloated egos to our point of view - so that someone with a differing point of view is perceived as some kind of existential threat. It's the thin end of the wedge - at the thicker end you have the likes of Putin who will murder and go to war so that their point of view can be vindicated. It's pathetic really, but we haven't really moved on that much from a neanderthal mindset
Cybertron ; regarding that slur of yours about people living on their own - nearly 30 % of the population in the States live in one person households, and it's a similar percentage in the UK....And this trend is growing in both countries. Prejudices can be irrational and daft sometimes.
LondonSuede ; Thanks for that - I would say that this is significant news. There's no way that he will illegally risk blocking anything from now on, one would think. Hopefully that's him sorted.
Trouble is that governor is a communist judging by his previous roles - he was never going to be sympathetic to greedy western capitalists trying to make money in Mongolia. Hopefully though he has now had his wings clipped.
LondonSuede - do you mean that it's this governor who will have to pay compensation ?
Thanks Rollonsummer. Once I've got out of PM I certainly won't be going near AIM again - it is indeed like the wild west.
Ojay was saying in a post below that investors have been put off by the history of delays, yet if the recent district land access voting had gone the other way this company would probably be valued at more like 1p a share. Plan B might involve lengthy delays for various reasons, so it wouldn't necessarily have been the answer in the event of the voting going against PM.
So people have spent years invested in PM - including me, with some posting thousands of time on this board over the years, often bickering with other posters as to who is more right or wrong.
And some on here have seemingly spent countless hours devoted to fundamental analysis, with investigation into the complexities of Mongolian admin procedures, Mongolian provincial and district politics and tracking the comments of Mongolian activists on Facebook etc etc. All this in the name of waiting for that highly elusive, but oft promised multibagger.
Meanwhile on Nasdaq Wisa Technologies since yesterday has soared from 2 Dollars to touch 12 Dollars in pre-market today. Once I have finished with PM, I know where I will be looking in future - and isn't the UK.
Just packing my rucksack right now, as I'm going to hitchhike to Mongolia so as to hopefully arrive just in time for the AGM. Knowing my luck I will forget to take the documentary proof that I own shares in order to be let in.....
Cybertron ; with all due respect, it's up to the individuals who use this board to decide whether to engage with Pro or not.
Nobody is in charge of this board, formulating rules for other posters which they then get admonished for if they don't follow them. We are all equal on here, and we all have the capacity to use the filter button if need be.
Oh come on now Pro - don't be so modest. Are we talking £25k ? £45k ? £60k ?
The average UK wage is now £34,900 - so presumably we talking a far bit more than this ? And how many shorts do you do in a year on average ?
Pro ; out of interest could you state roughly how much you have made in the last 30 days ? I'm curious. Thank you.
So yesterday daily volume was just 2.25m - which is below average. And don't forget that volume includes both buys and sells over the course of a day. So right now there's little demand. Volume has been low for each of the last 3 trading days, hence the slight dip in the share price. Daily volume on the last RNS release was 18.5m shares to give some idea of what well above average volume looks like
Cybertron ; I'm not sure that ' professional ' and ' BP ' are the same person. I read back through a few of pro's 2,235 posts yesterday, and there's hardly a single one that doesn't have spelling mistakes, poor grammar and general typos. BP on the other hand writes quite a bit better with fewer typos. Unless the mistakes in pro's posts are done on purpose so as to mislead of course.
Pro has posted 270 times in the last 30 days. If we assume say 5 mins per post, that's 1,350 mins / 22.5 hours devoted to posting about PM in the last 30 days. I know of day traders who would have made a lot of money in 22.5 hours of trading, given that many are only day trading for about 3 hours per day at key moments. I'm curious to know how much pro has made in the last 30 days, or indeed since he made the first of his 2,235 posts a couple of years ago or so.
Hamm ; given that you do the same kind of ramping post just about every day, do you actually think that you are influencing the share price ? Believe you me, what will change the share price significantly needs to be volume of at least something like 20m to 30m shares changing hands after a news catalyst - not a typical daily volume of 3m or 4m shares. Daily ramping on a board such as this is a complete waste of time - unless people need it to justify their decisions in their own minds. Sensible and factual discussion about fundamentals on the other hand can provide useful intel sometimes.
So today the bar/candle was a bullish one - it looks like we may be re testing the strong resistance level of 4.5p very soon. Volume today was low - just 2.25m ( vs 18.5m on the day of the last RNS release ) shares changing hands.
If we do get a spike on the next RNS, then the key resistance levels might be 7p, 9.3p and 10p. If it were to punch through 10p, then the next resistance levels are 13.5p and then 14.7p. Bear in mind that at those levels there may be weakholders who are trapped ( they bought at the top of a spike) and may sell once it hits those resistance levels, just glad to get their money back.
My guess is that if it is a positive one then it will spike to around 10p on the day of the release, and then retrace to something like 6 to 7p soon afterwards before resuming upwards more slowly.
Hamm - you said before the last RNs that ' there is no risk ' even before the District Committe had voted in favour of Matd's land access. Imagine what would have happened to the share price if they had voted the other way....
Manxkippers ; I think what you wrote are good points. Therefore I presume that the current risks are ;
1) 'Once signed ' by the District Committee as was stated in the last RNS does not provide a definite timeframe. 6 weeks have so far elapsed, yet the timeframe might turn out to be 2 or 3 months. We just don't know, and that's the slight issue. The AGM is at the end of the month, so if it is still not signed by then presumably we will be told.
2) Plan B if the governor is still obstructive might possibly result in injunctions and delays.
So right now, nobody can say for definite that plan A or B will bear fruits in the next few days or even weeks - we just don't know. I am optimistic on the whole - there has been a derisking since I first started buying back in 2019 compared to where we were before the last RNS. However, I am cautious when I hear overt ramping given that someone on here said even before the last RNS release ; ' buy now guys - there is no risk. ' I also don't believe that on a positive RNS that it will suddenly rerate to 30p or 40p. I think it might spike quickly to 10 to 12p and then pullback sharply to 7 or 8p. And then after that we will await further RNS releases.
Roxy2020 ; That sounds like a realistic kind of assessment. I tend to agree. I think that notions of 30p to 40p on issuance of the permit are a mixture of wishful thinking and overt ramping. There will definitely be a sharp pullback after the spike - it may happen on the same day, or over several days, but it will happen.
Possibly the price might be supported at the top of the spike for a day or two whilst the MM distribution phase happens. I think they keep buying near the top so as to support the price so that the high mark up retail price stays elevated for as long as possible. Once the distribution phase ends they let it drop.
Right now I assume that the MMs are accumulating in the same way that traders stock a warehouse at wholesale prices, ready to mark it up to retail price levels once a rally starts. During the sharp rally with very heavy demand, people will pay the big mark ups on the wholesale prices that the MMs bought at.
I also found this from a 2018 Reuter's article ;
"The country is challenging because of its extreme weather and a legal system and young democracy that have caused problems for international investors, including tax wrangles and contractual disputes.
Petro Matad's CEO Mike Buck said in an interview Mongolia was offering favourable terms for oil exploration and had untapped potential because, during the era of Soviet control over Mongolia, Russia had plenty of oil of its own, while China explored its reserves just over the border. "
Supersport ; I agree that if we get the permit signed that it will spike quite dramatically. Then it will definitely do a sharp pullback as trading bots take profits and LTHs who were locked in exit with a decent profit.
I see this everyday with small cap Nasdaq stocks in real time - a huge spike up on a positive news catalyst with several hundred % the usual volume, followed by a very sharp retracement, which can often be something like 50% of the spike.
The danger is to get over excited and buy in at the top of the spike whilst the likes of Hamm are bouncing around saying ' buy, buy, buy guys - you will never see these kind of prices ever again. ' People who know what they are doing will play it right if there is a big spike.
Doc 83 - ok - sorry, I see what you mean now.